WPIAL Playoff Scenarios (Week 9)

The final weekend of the WPIAL football season is upon us. 52 of the 64 playoff spots have been clinched. There are five conferences in which the top two teams will square off this week for the conference title. There are 22 teams battling for the last 12 playoff spots. Of the remaining playoff spots, half of them will be decided by casket matches. You know what that means...

For reference, the WPIAL Tiebreaking procedures are as follows:
1. Head-to-head
2. Gardner Points, determined by margin of victory/defeat in conference games. Any margin of victory/defeat over 10 points only counts as +10 or -10.
Notations: x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched conference title

AAAA

12 of 16 playoff spots clinched

7 teams still in the running for 4 remaining playoff spots

2 Conference Title Games

2 Casket Matches

Big East Conference

1.  y-Central Catholic (5-0)
2t. x-Woodland Hills (4-1)
2t. x-Penn Hills (4-1)
4. Kiski Area (2-2)
5. Plum (1-3)

Important Game: Woodland Hills @ Penn Hills - The winner takes second in the conference and gets a home first round playoff game.

Casket Match: Kiski Area @ Plum

Foothills Conference

1t. x-McKeesport (5-0)
1t. x- Gateway (5-0)
3t. x-Penn-Trafford (3-2)
3t. x-Norwin (3-2)

Conference Title Game: McKeesport @ Gateway

Important Game: Penn-Trafford @ Norwin - The winner takes third place in the conference and gets a marginally easier first round playoff game.

Great Southern Conference

1. x-Mt Lebanon (4-0)
2. x-Upper St Clair (4-0)
3. Baldwin (2-2)
4. Peters Twp (1-3)
5. Bethel Park (1-3)

Conference Title Game: Upper St Clair @ Mt. Lebanon

Important Games: Baldwin @ Bethel Park, Peters Twp @ Canon-McMillan

Scenario 1: Baldwin beats Bethel Park - Baldwin finishes 3rd, Peters finishes 4th thanks to head-to-head tiebreaker over Bethel, regardless of result vs Canon-Mac.
Scenario 2: Bethel Park beats Baldwin and Peters Twp beats Canon-Mac - 3-way tie for 3rd place. 
Gardner Points: Baldwin -7, Peters -16, Bethel Park -17

Northern Seven Conference

1. x-North Allegheny (5-0)
2. x-North Hills (4-1)
3. x-Erie McDowell (4-2)
4. Shaler (3-2)
5. Pine-Richland (2-3)

Conference Title Game: North Allegheny @ North Hills

Casket Match: Pine-Richland @ Shaler

AAA

11 of 16 playoff spots clinched

9 teams still in the running for 5 remaining playoff spots

1 Conference Title Game

2 Casket Matches

Big Eight Conference

1. y-Thomas Jefferson (6-0)
2t. x-Trinity (4-2)
2t. x-West Mifflin (4-2)
2t. Belle Vernon (4-2)
5. Chartiers Valley (3-3)

Important Games: Thomas Jefferson v West Mifflin, Chartiers Valley v South Park, Trinity v McGuffey, Belle Vernon v Elizabeth Forward

Scenarios:
Belle Vernon clinches a playoff spot and 2nd place with a win over Elizabeth Forward
Chartiers Valley needs to beat South Park then hope West Mifflin and Elizabeth Forward win. Not likely.

Greater Allegheny Conference

1t. x-Knoch (5-0)
1t. x-Mars (5-0)
3. x-Indiana (3-2)
4. Highlands (2-3)
5. Hampton (2-3)

Conference Title Game: Knoch @ Mars (Sat)

Casket Match: Hampton @ Highlands

Keystone Conference

1.  y-Ringgold (6-0)
2t. x-Franklin Regional (5-1)
2t. x-Greensburg Salem (5-1)
4. Hollidaysburg (3-3)
5. Derry Area (2-4)

Important Game: Greensburg Salem @ Franklin Regional - Winner finishes 2nd and gets the all-important first round home game. Not that it means much, the Keystone Conference is 1-39 in the first round of the WPIAL playoffs in the last 10 years. That said, Franklin Regional just moved to the conference this year and is a former WPIAL champion, adding some muscle to the group.

Casket Match: Derry Area @ Hollidaysburg

Parkway Conference

1. y-Montour (6-0)
2. x-West Allegheny (5-1)
3t. Blackhawk (3-3)
3t. Hopewell (3-3)
3t. Central Valley (3-3)

Important Games: 
Hopewell @ West Allegheny (Thu) - Things will get a little clearer after this game. Hopewell clinches a playoff spot with a win. If they lose, Hopewell can still qualify for the playoffs with a loss by Central Valley or Blackhawk.
Central Valley @ Ambridge - Central Valley clinches a playoff spot with a win.
New Castle @ Blackhawk - Blackhawk needs to win and hope either Central Valley or Hopewell lose.

AA

14 of 16 playoff spots have been clinched

4 teams still in the running for the 2 remaining playoff spots

Only 1 Conference Champion remains to be decided

2 Casket Matches

Allegheny Conference

1. y-Ford City 6-0)
2. x-Deer Lakes (5-1)
3. x-Freeport (4-2)
4. x-Shady Side Academy (4-2)

Everything is locked up here, but the #2 spot is still up for grabs between the 3 remaining teams. Deer Lakes plays Shady Side Academy in the only important game in the Conference this weekend.
Gardner Points: Deer Lakes +32, Shady Side Academy +23, Freeport +13

Century Conference

1. y-South Fayette (6-0)
2. x-Seton La-Salle (5-1)
3. x-Steel Valley (4-2)
4. x-Keystone Oaks (4-2)

Everything is locked up here as well, and like in the Allegheny Conference, the #2 spot and home playoff game is up for grabs. Seton La-Salle and Keystone Oaks have their Rivalry Game this weekend. Seton beat Steel Valley and Steel Valley beat KO. 
Gardner Points: Seton La-Salle +40, Steel Valley +23, Keystone Oaks +21

Interstate Conference

1t. x-Greensburg Central Catholic (7-0)
1t. x-Jeanette (7-0)
3. Mount Pleasant (5-2)
4. x-East Allegheny (5-3)
5. Southmoreland (3-3, 3-4)

Conference Title Game: Jeanette @ Greensburg Central Catholic

Casket Match: Southmoreland @ Mt Pleasant

Midwestern Conference

1.  y-Aliquippa (8-0)
2t. x-Beaver Area (6-1)
2t. x-Beaver Falls (6-1)
4t. Ellwood City (4-3)
4t. Riverside (4-3)

Important Game: Beaver Falls @ Beaver Area - winner takes second place and gets a home playoff game.

Casket Match: Riverside @ Ellwood City

A

15 of 16 playoff spots have been clinched

2 teams still in the running for 1 remaining playoff spots

3 of the 4 Conference Titles have been decided 

Sadly, no casket matches in Class-A games

Big Seven Conference

1. y-Rochester (6-0)
2. x-Cornell (5-1)
3. x-Sto-Rox (4-2)
4. x-Western Beaver (4-2)

Everything is wrapped up except the seeding. Sto-Rox travels to Cornell this week. Cornell clinches second with a win. A Sto-Rox win sends it to Gardner Points, assuming Western Beaver beats Union.
Gardner Points: Cornell +31, Sto-Rox +24, Western Beaver +19

Black Hills Conference

1. y-Clairton (6-0)
2. x-Chartiers-Houston (5-1)
3. x-Brentwood (4-2)
4. x-Fort Cherry (4-2)

Everything is wrapped up in the Black Hills Conference as well. Chartiers-Houston plays Fort Cherry this week. Char-Houston holds on to 2nd with a win. A Fort Cherry win and Brentwood win over Carlynton sends it to Gardner Points.
Gardner Points: Chartiers-Houston +31, Fort Cherry +23, Brentwood +17

Eastern Conference

1t. x-Avonworth (6-1)
1t. x-Bishop Canevin (6-1)
1t. x-Springdale (6-1)
4. x-North Catholic (4-2, 5-2)

The only team here that can't win the conference title is North Catholic. Avonworth beat Springdale. Springdale beat Canevin. Canevin beat Avonworth. Gardner Points city.
Gardner Points: Avonworth +50, Springdale +50, Bishop Canevin +47

Tri-County South Conference

1. y-Monessen (7-0)
2. x-Beth-Center (6-1)
3. x-California (5-2)
4. Carmichaels (4-3)
5. Frazier (4-3)

Important Games: California v Geibel, Carmichaels v Mapleton, Frazier v Monessen


Scenarios:
Carmichaels beat Frazier head-to-head and holds the tiebreaker.
Frazier has their backs against the wall. They have to beat 7-0 Monessen and hope Carmichaels loses to 0-7 Mapleton.