2012 NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction

With the Selection Show mere hours away, here's a look at how I see the bracket as of right now.

UPDATE: With Michigan State beating Ohio State, they move up to the top line.

To start with, the #1 overall seed in the Tournament is...

Really no surprise here. UK has been the best team all season and their loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC Championship doesn't change that. The rest of the #1 seeds are:

Head-to-head, Michigan State and Kansas had very even resumes, but Michigan State won their conference tournament, giving them the edge for the top line. To be honest, the difference between the 4th #1 seed and the top #2 seed is very slim in my book. Here's how my bracket looks:

Midwest Region

1. Kentucky vs 16. Norfolk State/Vermont

8. Kansas State vs 9. Connecticut

5. UNLV vs 12. Colorado

4. Wisconsin vs 13. Virginia Commonwealth

6. Wichita State vs 11. Texas

3. Marquette vs 14. New Mexico State

7. St Mary's (CA) vs 10. Colorado State

2. Duke vs 15. Loyola (MD)

East Region

1. Syracuse vs 16. Lamar

8. Memphis vs 9. Harvard

5. Vanderbilt vs 12. BYU/North Carolina State

4. Indiana vs 13. Long Beach State

6. Temple vs 11. California

3. Baylor vs 14. Montana

7. Cincinnati vs 10. Virginia

2. Ohio State vs 15. Detroit

South Region

1. North Carolina vs 16. Western Kentucky/Mississippi Valley State

8. Iowa State vs 9. Purdue

5. Florida vs 12. South Florida/Marshall

4. Louisville vs 13. South Dakota State

6. San Diego State vs 11. Xavier

3. Michigan vs 14. Belmont

7. Gonzaga vs 10. West Virginia

2. Missouri vs 15. Lehigh

West Region

1. Michigan State vs 16. UNC-Asheville

8. Notre Dame vs 9. Alabama

5. Creighton vs 12. St Bonaventure

4. Florida State vs 13. Ohio

6. Murray State vs 11. Southern Mississippi

3. Georgetown vs 14. Davidson

7. New Mexico vs 10. St Louis

2. Kansas vs 15. Long Island

To speak to the bubble for a moment, obviously my "Last 4 In" were BYU, South Florida, North Carolina State, and Marshall. The "First Five Out" were Iona, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Drexel, and Miami. Here's a look at their resumes:

(click to enlarge)

While all of the teams (except Miami) had multiple bad losses against teams with 100+ RPIs, the Committee has given good wins more weight than bad losses in the past. South Florida, NC State, and Marshall all had strong computer numbers, including excellent Non-Conference Strength of Schedule numbers. While Seton Hall and Mississippi State had the most Top 100 wins (7) of any teams in the group, their RPIs were prohibitively high (67+) and their Non-Conference SOS numbers were both over 125. On the other hand, Marshall had a similar number of Top 100 wins (6) but more Top 50 wins (4 to 3 for Seton Hall and 2 for Mississippi State). Marshall's more wins against the Top 50 gave them an edge in my book for the last spot. Iona's 0-2 record against the Top 50 was what kept them out, and Drexel's horrendous Non-Conference SOS number was a scar on their resume. Additionally, Marshall's top wins (#19 Southern Miss twice, #40 Cincinnati, and #41 Iona) were better than Iona or Drexel's best wins. 

Conference Tournament Preview Part 2

With less than a week to go until Selection Sunday, a handful of schools have already punched their ticket to the Big Dance. As the week moves forward, major conference tournaments will get rolling and the bubble picture will either get clearer or become more distorted - such is the nature of Champ Week. While most of the top teams in major conferences have their At-Large bids secured, it's important to note that 5 of the last 6 National Champions have also won their conference tournaments. The only team that did not was North Carolina in 2009. So if you're looking for a safe bet on a team to advance all the way through your bracket next week, keep a close eye on the conference championship games.

ACC 

March 8-11 

Atlanta

Top Seeds: UNC, Duke, Florida St, Virginia

Tournament Format: 12 teams, top 4 get byes to Quarterfinals

Upset Special: NC State

The Outlook: UNC beat Duke the last game of the regular season to clinch the top seed in the tournament, but that doesn't necessarily make it a given that these two schools are a lock to meet again in the title game. Both Miami and NC State are talented teams that are hanging right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament bubble and are desperate to string some wins together and prove to the Committee that they deserve inclusion into the field of 68. Florida State plays some of the best defense in the league and it wouldn't be surprising to see them in the championship game. But really, everyone is rooting for Duke-Carolina III. Or maybe that's just me because I love the rivalry. Incredibly, Duke has won 10 of the last 13 ACC Championships.

ATLANTIC 10 

March 6, 9-10, 12 

First-round at campus sites, Atlantic City

Top Seeds: Temple, St Louis

Tournament Format: Top 12 teams qualify, top 4 get byes to Quarterfinals

Upset Special: Dayton

The Outlook: Temple is a lock for the NCAA tournament and if they bring home the title from Atlantic City might just find their name with a 4 or 5 next to it on Selection Sunday. The Owls have 2 of the top 3 scorers in the league in Ramone Moore (17.8 PPG) and Khalif Wyatt (17.1 PPG). St. Louis possesses a very mediocre resume, but this team plays a lot better than they look on paper. Xavier is hanging right on the bubble and really hasn't been the same team since "The Fight" in Cincinnati and could use a win or two to help their at large hopes. Don't sleep on the Dayton Flyers, one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation. They finished 6th in the league but have wins over each of the top 3 teams. 

BIG EAST 

March 6-10 

New York

Top Seeds: Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Cincinnati

Tournament Format: 16 teams, Seeds 5-8 get byes to 2nd round, top 4 get "double bye" to Quarterfinals

Upset Special: Georgetown

The Outlook: Last year, Connecticut stormed through the tournament on the back of Kemba Walker, winning 5 games in 5 days to claim the title. This propelled them into the NCAA tournament where they kept riding the wave, all the way to a National Championship. This year's UConn team finds themselves in a similar predicament and would do well to avoid an opening round loss to DePaul. Syracuse has a #1 seed in the Big Dance all but locked up, with a staggering 30-1 overall record. Marquette is an exciting team to watch when they're hot but they could just as easily fail to show up in New York and get upset. Seton Hall and South Florida are hanging around the bubble looking for a win or two to help their weak resumes. As always, this is an incredibly deep league that could send as many as 10 teams to the NCAA Tournament, which means this is a wide open field that anyone could win. 

BIG 10 

March 8-11 

Indianapolis

Top Seeds: Michigan St, Michigan, Ohio St

Tournament Format: 12 teams, top 4 get byes to Quarterfinals

Upset Special: Indiana

The Outlook: Is this Northwestern's year? The Wildcats have never been to the NCAA tournament, and with the rest of the league either safely in or pretty far out, Northwestern is the only bubble team playing for their life. The Wildcats lack any kind of inside presence that would give them a shot to topple Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State in succession to get the automatic bid, but are a terrific shooting team from the outside. Indiana has been one of the hottest teams in the nation lately, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them make a deep run in the tournament. At the top, Sparty, Big Blue, and the Buckeyes all tied for the regular season conference title, and it's anyone's guess who comes out on top. We'd love to see tOSU's Jared Sullinger and Michigan State's Draymond Green go at it again in the title game, but Michigan's lineup led by some stellar young guards is fun to watch and could make some noise in the Big Dance.

BIG 12 

March 7-10 

Kansas City

Top Seeds: Kansas, Missouri

Tournament Format: 10 teams, 7/10 and 8/9 Play-in Games

Upset Special: Iowa State

The Outlook: Kansas is all but locked in to a #1 seed in the Big Dance, but they are the defending champs and have cut down the nets 5 of the last 6 years. Missouri is a talented team that will most certainly be a top 3 seed and Baylor has the talent to make some noise in March. Iowa State and Kansas State will be going dancing as well. Texas is really the only team on the bubble and they need a deep run in the Big 12 tournament to solidify their position in the field. The Kansas-Missouri game at the end of the regular season was a classic with Kansas storming back from 19 points down to eventually win in overtime. We can only hope the two meet again in the championship game for Round III.

BIG WEST 

March 8-10 

Anaheim

Top Seeds: Long Beach St, Cal St Fullerton

Tournament Format: 8 teams, normal bracket. Cal St Northridge ineligible for tournament based on failure to meet NCAA academic requirements

Upset Special: UC-Santa Barbara

The Outlook: The Beach was the dominant team in the league all year, running through conference play until they stumbled against Cal St Fullerton in the last game of the season. Still, a 15-1 conference record to go along with the most brutal non-conference slate in the nation makes the Beach a serious contender for an At-Large bid should they fail to win the Big West crown. Nevertheless, they would do well not to tempt fate and leave their destiny up to the Committee. The Beach plays aggressive defense with 3 players averaging over 1.5 steals per game. UC-Santa Barbara pulled the upset over LBSU in last year's conference title game and possess the league's leading scorer Orlando Johnson (20 PPG, 17th in the nation).

CONFERENCE USA 

March 7-10 

Memphis

Top Seeds: Memphis, Southern Miss

Tournament Format: 12 teams, top 4 get byes to Quarterfinals

Upset Special: Marshall

The Outlook: While Memphis and Southern Miss should feel pretty comfortable heading into Selection Sunday, a slew of other Conference USA teams have flirted with the bubble this year. UCF and Marshall are hovering with RPIs in the 60s, which still keeps them on the outside of the bubble looking in, but both are capable of making deep runs in the tournament. UCF has the best defense in the league, holding opponents to under 63 points per game. Memphis boasts the league's best offense (75 PPG) and the league's leading scorer (Will Barton, 18.7 PPG) and is the clear favorite to win the Conference USA crown.

MID-AMERICAN 

5, 7-10 

Cleveland 

Top Seeds: Akron, Buffalo

Tournament Format: 12 teams, 3 & 4 seeds byes to Quarterfinals, 1 & 2 seeds byes to Semi-Finals

Upset Special: Ohio

The Outlook: The East Division dominated the MAC this year with its top 4 teams (Akron, Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent St) finishing with the 4 best records in the conference. Buffalo boasts two stellar big men that have dominated the league this year. Senior Michael Watt (16.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) and Sophomore Javon McCrea (14.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG) are both in the top 5 in the conference in points and rebounds. Akron doesn't have any individual players with statistically significant stats (only 2 players averaging over 10 points per game) but their biggest attribute is their depth - the Zips have 9 players averaging at least 16 minutes per game. 

MID-EASTERN 

March 6-10 

Winston-Salem

Top Seeds: Savannah St, Norfolk St

Tournament Format: 13 teams, top 3 get byes to Quarterfinals

Upset Special: Delaware St

The Outlook: Norfolk State was the early favorite in conference play, but Savannah State stormed down the stretch, winning their last 13 games and 16 of their last 17. Don't sleep on Delaware St or Bethune-Cookman who have played tight games against the top teams in the league this year. Delaware St might have the most exciting player in the league in guard Jay Threatt who leads the conference in assists (6.1 per game) and steals (3.1 per game). Don't expect to see the MEAC winner seeded well in the NCAA tournament - the Conference Champion has been seeded 15th or worse every year in the last decade. The MEAC may be best known for producing two of the biggest upsets in tournament history - 15-seed Hampton toppled 2-seed Iowa State in 2001 and 15-seeded Coppin State downed 2-seed South Carolina in 1997. The Coppin State upset was in the Civic Arena, the last time the NCAA Tournament was played in Pittsburgh.

MOUNTAIN WEST 

March 8-10 

Las Vegas

Top Seeds: New Mexico, San Diego St, UNLV

Tournament Format: 8 teams, normal bracket

Upset Special: Colorado St

The Outlook: The top 3 teams have their bids to the NCAA tournament pretty much locked up while Colorado State, despite a great computer profile, is still looking for a signature win away from their home floor. This figures to be a wide open tournament out in Vegas as every team in the conference has played competitive ball all season. Even last place Boise State put together a 3-game winning streak this year that included a win over Colorado State. UNLV is an athletic team that beat North Carolina early in the season and has one of the best big men in the league, Mike Moser who averages a double-double (14 PPG, 10.7 RPG). The league's leading scorer is SDSU's Jamaal Franklin (17.1 PPG) who is also in the top 5 in the league in rebounds (8.0 RPG). 

PAC-12 

March 7-10 

Los Angeles

Top Seeds: Washington, California

Tournament Format: 12 teams, top 4 get byes to Quarterfinals

Upset Special: Colorado

The Outlook: When someone says that a Major conference had a "down year" they usually mean that the conference will likely only get 3 teams into the tournament and that a lot of the programs were going through a rebuilding process. What's happening in the Pac-12 is almost unprecedented mediocrity for a Power 6 conference. This year, the Pac-12 ranks 10th in Conference RPI, below the A-10, Conference USA, and Missouri Valley Conference and barely above the West Coast Conference. That's not surprising. Washington won the league title by losing their season finale to UCLA then watching Cal drop a game to 8th place Stanford. Yikes. Washington passes the "eye test" as a tournament team, but is fully capable of dropping a game here in the tournament. Cal seemed to have solid footing for At-Large consideration until dropping their last 2 games to Colorado and Stanford. While the league is filled with parity, it's because all the teams are sufficiently mediocre and no one stands out from the Pac(k)....haha yes, I know, that was terrible.

SEC 

March 8-11 

New Orleans

Top Seeds: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida

Tournament Format: 12 teams, top 4 get byes to Quarterfinals

Upset Special: Tennessee

The Outlook: Tennessee has come out of nowhere to have a serious shot at bubble consideration, thanks to a 8-1 run over the last 9 games. Kentucky is the best team in the nation led by National Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis who is an absolute athletic freak on the inside. As can be expected with a John Calipari-coached team, Kentucky is loaded with stars all over the court. Watching this team is like a "who's-who" for the first round of next year's NBA Draft. Vanderbilt and Florida are teams capable of going to the Final 4 or losing in the first round - both rely heavily on 3-point shooting. Alabama has overcome a lot of adversity this year, from players getting suspended or kicked off the team, to solidify a good At-Large resume. Mississippi State is still hovering around the bubble and could use a deep run in the SEC Tournament to keep them on the right side of the cut line.

SOUTHLAND 

March 6-10 

Katy, TX

Top Seeds: UT-Arlington, Stephen F. Austin

Tournament Format: Top 8 qualify, normal bracket

Upset Special: Lamar

The Outlook: Come on, you know you want Lamar to win this tournament. In case you were living under a rock, Lamar is coached by Bob Knight's son Pat, who obviously has the same fire as his old man. A few weeks ago, Pat said...well...watch and see:

All I can say is you know you want to see Pat Knight in the NCAA Tournament. UT-Arlington pretty much dominated this conference all season, going 15-1 in league play and winning the league title by 3 games.

SWAC 

March 7-10 

Garland, TX

Top Seeds: Mississippi Valley State, Texas Southern

Tournament Format: 8 teams, normal bracket, Southern and Grambling are ineligible based on failure to meet NCAA academic standards

Upset Special: Arkansas-Pine Bluff

The Outlook: The SWAC Tournament Champion has been given a 16-seed the last 9 years by the Committee and that isn't likely to change this year as they have the worst Conference RPI in the nation. The top-seeded Delta Devils started the year 1-11 in non-conference play then reeled off 17-straight victories in the SWAC before falling to defending champion Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the last game of the regular season. The SWAC might boast the biggest tragedy of Champ Week - the league's leading scorer and the #4 scorer in the nation, Grambling's Quincy Roberts (22.7 PPG), won't get to play in the tournament because his school is ineligible for postseason play.

WAC 

March 7-10 

Las Vegas

Top Seeds: Nevada, New Mexico State

Tournament Format: 8 teams, normal bracket

Upset Special: Utah State

The Outlook: Nevada stormed through conference play, losing only once and winning the regular season title by 3 games. Their only conference loss was by 4 points to Idaho in early February. The Pack put together an impressive 16-game winning streak that lasted from Thanksgiving until the Idaho loss. If there is a team that can stand with them, it's New Mexico State who is led by senior Forward Wendell McKines who averages a double-double (18.5 PPG, 10.8 RPG). The Aggies boast the 14th best offense in the nation, averaging 78.3 points per game. Despite their lofty record, Nevada doesn't have the resume for an At-Large bid and will likely be NIT-bound if they fail to win the WAC Tournament.

Steelers Release Hines Ward

Let's face it, we all knew this day was coming. Hines had a big cap number and he became less and less a part of the Steelers offense as the season rolled on last year. Hines has had a great career in the black and gold. For a 3rd round pick out of Georgia, Hines became the greatest receiver in Steelers history. It's hard to even put his accomplishments into words for some Steelers fans. Even though we have moved to a pass-first offense now, for much of Hines' career the Steelers were still a run-oriented team. Despite that, Hines had 8 seasons with over 70 receptions, including a career high of 112 in the Tommy Gun offense of 2002. He had 6 1,000-yard seasons and shattered pretty much every receiving record in the Steelers history books. Only the 8th player in the history of the game to reach 1,000 catches. The 18th player with 12,000 receiving yards.

This was a business decision on the part of the Steelers. Releasing Hines freed up close to $3 million towards the salary cap. Even though Hines had offered to take a lower salary to play with the team, the powers that be obviously decided that they didn't think Hines was capable of helping the team win in 2012. Hines may go on to finish his NFL career with another team, like many great NFL legends have done over the years. Let's not forget that Franco Harris finished his career with the Seattle Seahawks, Jerry Rice spent a few years in Oakland and Seattle before finally hanging it up.

As fans, it would be hard for us to see Hines taking the field wearing another jersey. However, if Hines still feels he can play and another team is willing to give him a shot, we're not going to hold it against him. Hines is still our favorite player to ever wear the black and gold. He embodied everything this franchise was about for the last 14 years. He's gone now, but we'll always have some great memories of what he did for this team and this city.

At some point, we'll put together a list of some of our favorite Hines Ward memories. There certainly have been a lot over these last 14 years. Thanks for everything Hines. We'll still wear our 86 jerseys with pride.

A Look At the Bubble

As we enter the last week of the regular season for the major conferences and about half of the mid-majors start conference tournament play the contenders have separated themselves from the pack. There are still a lot of teams on the bubble, thanks in large part to teams either lacking quality wins or having some big-time negatives on their resumes. Here's a look at approximately where things stand right now, at least in my eyes.

#1 Seeds

There is a big debate right now with how the top seeds will fall. One thing is for sure, the top two overall seeds are locked up.

  

  One way or another, Kentucky and Syracuse will be the top teams in the tournament. They both have only 1 loss so far this year, with Kentucky falling on a last-second shot to Indiana and Syracuse losing to Notre Dame.

The other two #1 seeds are up for grabs right now between Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, and North Carolina. Missouri and Ohio State were contenders for the top line, but have dropped off in the last few weeks. As things stand right now, I think if any of the 3 conferences (Big Ten, Big XII, ACC) have the same team win both the regular season and the conference tournament, that team will definitely get a #1 seed. Kansas clinched the Big XII regular season crown, which gives them a slight edge right now. Duke has head-to-head wins over Kansas, Michigan State, and North Carolina (though will have a rematch against the Tar Heels for the outright ACC Championship on Saturday). Therefore, by my estimation, the other two #1 seeds right now are...

Yes, you can argue that either Michigan State or UNC belong here too. But if the season ended today, I think these two teams would be on the top line.

Locks

At this point in the season, I have 27 teams that are "In" the field for sure: Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, Kansas, UNC, Michigan St, Marquette, Missouri, Baylor, Ohio St, Georgetown, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Louisville, UNLV, Temple, Wichita St, Florida St, Florida, Vanderbilt, Murray St, Creighton, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Memphis, Southern Mississippi

Additionally, I have 12 teams that "Should be in" barring some kind of epic collapse: Notre Dame, San Diego St, Virginia, UConn, Purdue, Kansas St, New Mexico, Alabama, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Iowa St, California.

Given Cal's loss to Colorado, Washington is now the Pac-12 leader and I think the committee will have a hard time not putting the regular season Pac-12 champ in the tournament, so for now I think they are in the "Should Be In" category. If Washington drops a game somewhere and Cal wins the Pac-12, Washington heads right back to the bubble.

There are 19 conference champions that probably won't get an At-Large bid, though cases like Long Beach St, Iona, Oral Roberts, Belmont and Middle Tennessee could make things interesting if they don't win their tournaments.

The Bubble

That left me with 9 bubble spots to distribute between what I identified as 20 teams in contention for the tournament. Looking at things like Top 50 wins, Top 100 wins, 100-200 losses and 200+ losses, I moved Northwestern, Miami, Illinois, Cincinnati, and Mississipi St to the top of the bubble. Yes, I know Illinois and Mississippi St don't pass the eye test, but looking at their resumes, they both have decent bodies of work. Illinois has 4 Top 50 wins and only 2 losses to teams with RPIs over 100. Mississippi St similarly only has 2 bad losses to teams with 100+ RPIs and have 3 Top 50 wins. Cincy's Non-conf SOS is horrendous, but they have 5 Top 50 wins so it was hard to keep them out given how bad some of the other teams were.

I took a look at the bottom of the bubble next to chop off the bottom end and eliminated NC State, Colorado, Ole Miss, UCF, LSU, Dayton, and St Joes (in that order) based on overall resume weaknesses.

So then we come down to the "Last 4 In"/"First 4 Out" discussion. The 8 teams I was left with at this point were: Arizona, BYU, Colorado St, St Louis, South Florida, Texas, VCU, Xavier.

Of this group, Texas had the most Top 50 wins (3) which gave them an advantage and moved them to the top of the "Last 4 In" group. USF is a paltry 1-7 vs the Top 50 with their best win over Seton Hall, whose RPI is 44, so not really a convincing Top 50 win at that.

  

USF's best road win was over Pitt (RPI 97) and that was their only Top 100 road win. They also lost to VCU, which moved VCU up on my board. USF got dropped to the bottom of my "First 4 Out" category.

Despite struggling since "The Fight", Xavier has a solid all-around resume. They have 2 Top 50 wins over Vandy (on the road, big plus) and Purdue and are 5-3 vs the Top 100 with all 3 losses coming on the road in conference play. They have only lost 1 game to a team outside the Top 100. Due to the strength of some mid-majors, the losses they took right after "The Fight" (Oral Roberts, Long Beach St, Gonzaga) don't look so bad since all those teams are in the Top 50 of the RPI. I put Xavier in based on their quality wins and lack of bad losses. 

I eliminated Colorado St next based on their "Home Court Hero" status. They have some impressive wins - San Diego St, New Mexico - but they are both at home. In fact, all 6 of their Top 100 wins were at home. Their best road win (and actually their ONLY road/neutral win) against a Top 200 team was over #135 UTEP. The Rams computer numbers are strong (mainly based on playing Duke and Southern Miss in non-conference play, both games they lost by over 20) but they just don't win away from home. 

That left me with 4 teams fighting over 2 spots: Arizona, BYU, St Louis, Texas.

It might be surprising that St Louis has dropped this far, but their overall resume is really sparse on quality wins. They have no Top 50 wins and their best wins are over St Joe's and Washington. The Billikins also have losses to Loyola Marymount (RPI 114) and an inexcusable loss to 6-23 Rhode Island (RPI 251).

BYU has a very similar resume with a 5-5 record against the Top 100 (St Louis was 5-4). However, BYU has a Top 50 win over Gonzaga. BYU also has 2 100+ losses, one of which was also to Loyola Marymount. However, what separated them from St Louis was their other loss was to Utah St (RPI 154). BYU has a better win and a less bad worst loss than St Louis, which gave them the edge.

Down to 3. I did BYU vs VCU first. Again, two similar resumes, but BYUs was marginally better. BYU is 5-5 vs the Top 100 and VCU is 4-4. Both had a Top 50 win, but BYUs was over Gonzaga (RPI 18) and VCU's was over South Florida (RPI 46). BYU's best "non-home" win was over Nevada (RPI 56) and VCU's was over Akron (RPI 58). Both teams had 2 losses to teams with 100+ RPIs, but BYU's worst loss was to Utah St (RPI 154) was better than VCU's worst loss was (Georgia Tech, RPI 175). To cap it off, BYU's computer numbers were better (RPI 49, SOS 107) than VCU's (RPI 60, SOS 213). 

This put BYU in the field, as they were better than both VCU and St Louis. I figured I should analyze Arizona next, because if they were better than BYU, I wouldn't need to look at VCU vs St Louis as they would both be out.

Arizona's also had 1 Top 50 Win (at Cal, RPI 36). Arizona is 4-8 against the Top 100 (as opposed to BYU's 5-5) but their wins are better. Arizona's best 2 wins (Cal and New Mexico St, RPI 71) were on the road (as opposed to BYU, whose only Top 100 non-home win is a neutral site win over Nevada). On top of the better wins, Arizona only has 1 loss to a team with an RPI over 100 (at UCLA, RPI 131). While Arizona's computer numbers aren't as good as BYUs, they have a better slate of Top 100 wins and less losses to teams with 100+ RPIs. This was enough for me to put Arizona over BYU, knocking VCU and St Louis from contention.

Therefore, my Last 4 In were: Texas, Xavier, Arizona, BYU

And my First 4 Out were: VCU, St Louis, Colorado St, South Florida

I was honestly surprised that St Louis dropped so far down the board, especially being a 21-6 team, but they just don't have the resume right now for me to justify putting them in the field. They have a huge opportunity tonight against Xavier at home that is almost a must-win for both teams. The A-10 standings are a mess right now. Temple is the clear leader, but there are 6 teams within 2 games of the 2nd place Billikins. The top 4 get byes in the conference tournament, so St Louis should be fairly safe for a bye, but there are 5 teams fighting over the last 2 byes that are all a game apart in the standings. In all likelihood, we'll see some bubble-bursting elimination games in the A-10 tournament involving St Joes, Xavier, and St Louis.

The Bracket

Here's a quick look at my current bracket:

South Region

1. Kentucky vs 16. Stony Brook/Miss Valley St

8. Southern Miss vs 9. Kansas St

5. Temple vs 12. Illinois

4. UNLV vs 13. Iona

6. Creighton vs 11. California

3. Baylor vs 14. Belmont

7. Gonzaga vs 10. Iowa St

2. Marquette vs 15. Davidson

East Region

1. Syracuse vs 16. UNC-Asheville/Savannah St

8. Memphis vs 9. New Mexico

5. Wichita St vs 12. Mississippi St

4. Wisconsin vs 13. Texas/BYU

6. St. Mary's vs 11. Miami

3. Ohio St vs 14. Akron

7. Notre Dame vs 10. Harvard

2. Missouri vs 15. Weber St

West Region

1. Duke vs 16. UT-Arlington

8. Purdue vs 9. Washington

5. Florida vs 12. Drexel

4. Louisville vs 13. Middle Tennessee

6. Murray St vs 11. Northwestern

3. Georgetown vs 14. Nevada

7. Virginia vs 10. Seton Hall

2. Michigan St vs 15. Bucknell

Midwest Region

1. Kansas vs 16. LIU-Brooklyn

8. UConn vs 9. Alabama

5. Florida St vs 12. Long Beach St

4. Indiana vs 13. Xavier/Arizona

6. Vanderbilt vs 11. Cincinnati

3. Michigan vs 14. Oral Roberts

7. San Diego St vs 10. West Virginia

2. North Carolina vs 15. Valparaiso

Conference Tournament Preview Part 1

As we enter into the last week in February, some of the Mid-Major conferences have concluded their regular seasons and are beginning tournament play. The big boys are still playing out the rest of their regular seasons this week and will start tournament play next week. But don't sleep on these small conferences. There are a lot of competitive leagues that should yield exciting tournament games. It's win-or-go-home for these small schools and they're going to leave everything they have out on the court. The ESPN family of networks (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU) will carry pretty much all of the championship games, along with some of the semi-finals matchups. Here's a preview of what to watch for over the next week.

AMERICA EAST 

March 1-3, 9 

Hartford

Top Seeds: Stony Brook, Vermont

Tournament Format: 9 teams, 8/9 Play-In

Upset Special: Albany

The Outlook: Stony Brook rode an undefeated home record and a league-leading defense (holding opponents to under 60 points per game) to the Regular Season Championship. Vermont's loss to Binghamton (the Bearcats only win of the season) kept them from sharing the regular season title with Stony Brook. If you're looking for a sleeper team, Albany has two of the top 5 scorers in the league (Gerardo Suero - 21.7 PPG and Logan Aronhalt - 14.2 PPG) and boasts the top scoring offense in the league. This is a top-heavy conference and the champion will likely be playing in one of the "First Four" games in the Big Dance. The America East champion has not been seeded higher than 15 in the NCAA tournament since 2007.

ATLANTIC SUN

February 29 – March 3 

Macon, GA

Top Seeds: Belmont, Mercer

Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify, Normal 8-team bracket

Upset Special: USC Upstate

The Outlook: Belmont is the best team in the conference and has a fringe shot at an at-large bid if they fail to win the tournament. USC Upstate is the feel-good story that pretty much no one has heard of. They went from winning just 5 games last year and finishing in the basement of the league to winning 20 games and finishing 3rd in the Atlantic Sun this year. Belmont has the #2 offense in the nation, averaging 82.1 points per game. By contrast, Mercer is built on defense, boasting the most stingy unit in the conference, allowing just 63.1 points per game. Belmont swept Mercer this season, but won the first game by 4 and the second by 1. 

BIG SKY 

March 3, 6-7 

Higher seed hosts first round, regular season champion hosts Semi-Finals and Finals

Top Seeds: Weber State, Montana

Tournament Format: Top 6 teams qualify, 1 & 2 get byes to Semi-Finals

Upset Special: no clue

The Outlook: This is a top-heavy conference with Weber St and Montana, both 14-1 in conference play as of Monday, dominating the league all season. The two meet Tuesday night at Montana in a game that will decide the regular season title. No one else in the league is even in the same conversation as these two. Weber St and Montana are contrasts in styles. Weber St is led by Damian Lillard, the leading scorer in the conference, has the 11th best offense in the nation (79.1 PPG), and has 3 players shooting over 40% from behind the arc. On the other hand, Montana boasts the best defense in the conference, allowing only 61.8 PPG.

BIG SOUTH 

February 27, March 1-3 

Campus Sites

Top Seeds: UNC Asheville, Coastal Carolina

Tournament Format: 10 teams, 7/10 and 8/9 Play-in Games

Upset Special: Charleston Southern

The Outlook: UNC-Asheville was the first school to clinch a regular season title this year, winning the Big South by 4 games over Coastal Carolina. This is an offense-driven league with 6 teams averaging over 70 points per game. VMI has the 5th best offense in the nation and would be a sleeper pick if not for their paltry 1-13 road record this season. Asheville is close on their heels with the #6 offense in the nation (80.8 PPG) and has 5 players averaging over 10 points per game. While Asheville has distinguished themselves from the pack, "the pack" was tight with only 3 games separating 3rd place from 8th place. Even though Asheville has been solid all year, they are likely headed towards a 16-seed, as the Big South Tournament champion has been placed at the bottom of the bracket for 3 consecutive years.

COLONIAL 

March 2-5 

Richmond, VA

Top Seeds: Drexel, VCU, George Mason, Old Dominion

Tournament Format: 12 teams, Top 4 get byes to Quarterfinals

Upset Special: Delaware

The Outlook: Unlike some of the other leagues, the CAA was built on stingy defense this season. Only George Mason averaged over 70 points per game and three teams (Drexel, VCU, and Georgia St) held opponents to under 60 PPG. Aside from Kentucky, Drexel is the hottest team in the country, riding a 17-game winning streak into the conference tournament and haven't lost since January 2nd. Delaware is the #5 seed and riding an 8-game winning streak over mostly bottom-of-the-conference teams into the tournament but does boast an early-season win over Drexel. VCU, George Mason, and ODU are all solid squads and it wouldn't be surprising to see any of the top 4 teams take this tournament. The CAA isn't as strong as in years past but name recognition and a weak, weak bubble could help them get a 2nd team in the Big Dance. Reputation may help the CAA champion in tournament seeding - the CAA Champion hasn't been seeded below a 12-seed since 2004.

HORIZON 

February 28-29, March 5-6 

Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: Valparaiso, Cleveland State

Tournament Format: 10 teams, Top 2 "Double Bye" to Semi-Finals

Upset Special: Butler

The Outlook: Valpo, coached by Tournament Buzzer Beater legend Bryce Drew, won the league by two games. However, the rest of the league was tight, with only 2 games separating 2nd and 7th place. The "Double Bye" format gives a huge advantage to the top 2 teams that only have to win once to get to the championship as opposed to the rest of the field that has to win 3 times to get to the title game. It's been a down year for Brad Stevens and the Butler Bulldogs, but you can never sleep on them this time of year. In addition to having the best defense in the league, Cleveland St was the only team with a winning record on the road, which may come in handy if they have to play the championship game at Valparaiso. Valpo has home court advantage in the tournament and was 8-1 at home in conference play this year, their only loss to Milwaukee back in December.

IVY 

No Tournament

While there isn't a conference tournament, this is a huge week for the Ivy League. Harvard enters the week with a 1/2 game lead on Penn in the conference standings. If both teams win out, the Ivy League may have to play a Tiebreaker game for the second consecutive year. Harvard has games at Columbia and at Cornell this week while Penn plays Brown, Yale, and at Princeton. If they don't get the automatic bid, Harvard should be right in the middle of the bubble picture, thanks to wins over Florida State and fellow bubble teams UCF and St Joe's.

METRO ATLANTIC 

March 2-5 

Springfield, MA

Top Seeds: Iona, Loyola (MD)

Tournament Format: 10 teams, 7/10 and 8/9 Play-in Games

Upset Special: Fairfield

The Outlook: Iona blitzed through the conference, boasting the top scoring offense in the nation (83.4 PPG) and almost 20 assists per game. The Gaels are led by PG Scott Machado who leads the nation with 10.1 assists per game. Big man Mike Glover is second in the conference with 18.1 PPG and 9.1 RPG. The Gaels can shoot the lights out, with 3 players averaging over 40% from behind the arc. Iona has a Top 40 RPI so if they were to lose in their conference tournament, they might have an outside (though slim) shot at an At-Large bid. This is a team that could make some noise in the Big Dance out of a 12 or 13-seed. The MAAC has produced good teams over the last few years, with the champion getting a 14-seed or higher each of the last 4 tournaments.

MISSOURI VALLEY 

March 1-4 

St. Louis

Top Seeds: Wichita St, Creighton

Tournament Format: 10 teams, 7/10 and 8/9 Play-in Games

Upset Special: Northern Iowa

The Outlook: The Valley traditionally has one of the most exciting tournaments and that shouldn't change much this year. Wichita St and Creighton are in good shape for At-Large bids, assuming both win at least a game in the Conference Tournament. Both teams have explosive offenses (Wichita St averages 78.3 PPG, Creighton 79.7 PPG). Creighton has one of the best scorers in the nation, Doug McDermott who averages 23.1 PPG (3rd in NCAA). Northern Iowa started the season strong, posting a 10-2 record before Christmas. Since Santa visited, the Panthers have been a mediocre 9-10, including a Bracketbusters loss to VCU. Though the top two teams certainly distinguished themselves from the rest of the league, only 1 game separated 3rd and 8th place, which should lead to another wide open "Arch Madness" tournament in St Louis. 

NORTHEAST 

March 1, 4, 7 

Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: LIU-Brooklyn, Wagner

Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify

Upset Special: Robert Morris

The Outlook: After one of the most grueling regular seasons in the nation, where teams play a staggering 18 conference games, the Top 8 have to navigate a full tournament with no byes. LIU-Brooklyn is clearly the best team in the league, boasting the 4th best offense in the nation (81.8 PPG) and has home court advantage throughout the tournament, where they have not lost this season. Point Guard Jason Brickman is 5th in the nation with 7.1 Assists Per Game Their only blemishes in conference play were a loss at Robert Morris and to Monmouth after they already had the league title wrapped up. LIU will be tested off the bat in their conference tournament, having to face Sacred Heart and the nation's 4th leading scorer Shane Gibson (22 PPG). While I picked Robert Morris as my upset special because I'm from Pittsburgh and I'm biased, they boast one of the best road records in the conference (11-6, 6-3) and have a victory over LIU. The conference champion is likely destined to find themselves at the bottom of the NCAA bracket - the champion hasn't received a seed higher than 15 since 2002.

OHIO VALLEY 

February 29, March 1-3 

Nashville

Top Seeds: Murray St, Tennessee St

Tournament Format: Top 8 qualify, 3 & 4 byes to Quarterfinals, 1 & 2 "Double Bye" to Semi-Finals

Upset Special: Honestly anyone other than Murray St would be an upset

The Outlook: While Murray St ran away with the league this year, finishing 28-1 overall, their only blemish coming against Tennessee St on February 9. However, they exacted their revenge in the form of an 18-point thumping on Senior Night at Tennessee St last week. Point Guard Isaiah Canaan is in the race for National Player of the Year, averaging 19.4 PPG and 3.8 APG all while shooting an astounding 48.4% from beyond the arc. The "Double Bye" format helps Murray State, but with a 3-0 record against the Top 50, including wins over Southern Miss, Memphis, and St Mary's, the Racers are easily in the Big Dance, even with a loss in the conference tournament.

PATRIOT 

February 29, March 3, 7 

Higher seed hosts game

Top Seeds: Bucknell, Lehigh

Tournament Format: 8 team normal bracket

Upset Special: 

The Outlook: The road to the tournament goes through Lewisburg, where the Bison have lost only twice all year. Bucknell was well on the way to an undefeated conference record in the middle of February before they made the race interesting and dropped back-to-back games to Lehigh and Holy Cross. The Bison got back on track and enter the tournament on the strength of big man Mike Muscala who averages 16.7 PPG and 9.1 RPG. If anyone has a shot at the Bison, it's probably Lehigh who boasts the best offense in the league (75.9 PPG) and the 6th leading scorer in the nation, CJ McCollum (21.7 PPG) and has won in Lewisburg already this year.

SOUTHERN 

March 2-5 

Asheville, NC

Top Seeds: Davidson, UNC Greensboro, Elon, Wofford

Tournament Format: Top 2 from each division get byes, teams seeded by finish within division play cross-division games

Upset Special: College of Charleston

The Outlook: Davidson is a decent team but hasn't put together the resume to qualify for an At-Large Bid, so the SoCon will be a one-bid league. UNC Greensboro might be one of the stories of the year in the NCAA. Their coach resigned after 10 games and Wes Miller (a guard on UNC's 2005 National Championship team) was named interim coach, making him the youngest coach in Division 1 basketball. The Spartans struggled with the transition, going 0-6 in Miller's first month as coach. But since January 12th, when UNC Greensboro was a lowly 2-14, they went 10-4 including a 7-game winning streak that propelled them to the top of the SoCon North Division. 

SUMMIT 

March 3-6 

Sioux Falls, SD

Top Seeds: Oral Roberts, South Dakota State

Tournament Format: Top 8 qualify

Upset Special: Oakland

The Outlook: Offense, offense, offense. That's the name of the game in the Summit League. Seven of the 10 teams average over 70 points per game and 5 of the top 15 scorers in the nation are from the Summit League. Oakland's Reggie Hamilton (25.5 PPG) is the nation's leading scorer while South Dakota State's Nate Wolters (21.2 PPG) and IPFW's Frank Gaines (21.0 PPG) are also in the Top 10. Oral Roberts has an RPI hovering in the 40s with 2 bad losses, which likely won't be good enough to land them an At-Large spot if they fail to win the tournament. The Golden Eagles were 17-1 in conference play with their only loss a 15-point defeat at South Dakota St. With the tournament in Sioux Falls, you have to think South Dakota St who posted a 14-0 home record this year, will get a home crowd boost. But honestly, with all the scoring talent in this league, anyone could take home the tournament crown. The Summit League champion has received a 13 or 14 seed in the Big Dance each of the last 5 years.

SUN BELT 

March 3-6 

Hot Springs, AR

Top Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Arkansas-Little Rock

Tournament Format: 11 teams qualify due to Louisiana-Monroe failing to meet NCAA Academic standards. Play-in Games: 8/9, 7/10, 6/11

Upset Special: Denver

The Outlook: Middle Tennessee won the regular season title by 2 games and has the resume of a bubble team should they fail to win the conference tournament. The Blue Raiders have 3 Top 100 wins but 2 bad losses, including one that might be a bubble burster to Western Kentucky (RPI 224). Denver started the season strong and could make some noise in the tournament on the back of their league-leading defense (60.7 PAPG). Arkansas-Little Rock is the defending tournament champion and have rebounded from a 3-10 start to the season to go 12-4 in conference play and finish second in the league.

WEST COAST 

February 29 – March 5 

Las Vegas

Top Seeds: St. Mary's, Gonzaga

Tournament Format: 8/9 Play-in, 3 & 4 byes to Quarterfinals, 1 & 2 "Double Bye" to Semi-Finals

Upset Special: San Francisco

The Outlook: This is one of the most bizarre tournament formats you're going to see. The WCC structured things to try to give an advantage to the top schools which should make for an interesting tournament. St. Mary's and Gonzaga should be fairly safe for at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament, and BYU is hovering around the bubble with an RPI in the 40s. Loyola Marymount has caused problems for the top teams this year but doesn't have the resume for At-Large consideration. Don't sleep on the #5 seed San Francisco who has played close games against the top teams and upset Gonzaga a few weeks ago. The Dons have the second best offense in the conference (75.2 PPG). BYU is the team most in need of a big run there to solidify their tournament hopes.

Bracketology: Analyzing the RPI

As we tick down the days until Selection Sunday, every ESPN broadcast will be inundated with Joe Lunardi's "Last 4 In" and "First 4 Out." While ESPN broadcasters take Joe's predictions as bible fact, Joe actually is pretty average among the 60+ bracketologists tracked by The Bracket Project. Last year, Joe's final bracket had a Paymon score of 310, his highest score in the 6 years the Bracket Project has existed. (For the record, "Paymon Score" was developed to "score" bracket predictions. You get 3 points for every correct team in the field, 2 points for every team correctly seeded, and 1 point for a team seeded within 1 of the seed where you predicted them.) In their "All Time" standings, Joe ranks 27th out of 44 bracketologists. And he gets paid a boatload of money by ESPN? Yikes.

As those of you know who have been reading my blog for a while, you'll know that I consider myself an amateur bracketologist. My Paymon Score last year was 312. Marginally better than "Joey Brackets"? Damn right.

I got 65 of 68 teams correct, 32 correct seeds, and 53 within 1 seed. Not bad for an amateur. 

This year, in the interest of greater transparency, the NCAA has been releasing the actual NCAA RPI and Team Sheets that the committee uses when selecting the field of 68.

Even though it isn't the greatest tool of analysis, the Committee still heavily relies on the RPI when ranking teams. I compiled some data over the last 4 tournaments on how RPI relates to tournament bids. Every year, there is a mid-major school that has a high RPI rating, a low strength of schedule, and winds up playing in the NIT. Using the RPI as a comparison metric, here are some interesting findings. Remember, this data is just for the last 4 tournaments.

Every school with a Top 30 RPI has made the field. Of the 120 teams with Top 30 RPIs, 40 have received automatic bids as conference champions and 80 have received At-Large Bids. Surprisingly, there have been the same number of Major and Mid-Major conference champions with Top 30 RPIs (20 each). However, among the At-Large group, there have been 64 teams from Major conferences and 16 teams from Mid-Major conferences. Regardless of conference size, all 80 of these teams have gone dancing.

Now remember, this is not saying that the Top 30 in the RPI will be the teams seeded on the higher lines in the bracket. This is just saying that they made the tournament. After the 30 line is where you start to see the data diverge between Major conference schools and Mid-Major schools. Of the 19 Major Conference schools ranked between 31 and 40, all 19 made the tournament (17 of which were At-Large bids). Of the 21 Mid-Major schools, only 12 made the dance, only 6 of which were At-Large bids. If you take the 6 Mid-Major conference champions out of the equation, only 40% (6 of 15) At-Large eligible Mid-Major teams with RPIs between 31 and 40 actually got tournament bids.

The 2009 Dayton Flyers were the highest ranked team to not get an NCAA Tournament bid over the last 4 years (RPI 32). They went on to beat North Carolina in the NIT Championship.

If we consider the Top 30 RPI line to be a "loose" delineation of where the bubble begins, especially for mid-major squads, there are some teams that should be doing some sweating over the last week of the regular season and into conference tournament week.

Colorado State, Creighton, New Mexico, Harvard, St Mary's, San Diego State, Murray State, Middle Tennessee State, and Long Beach State have RPIs that have been hovering in the 30s this year. As of right now, Colorado St and Creighton are under the 30 line but are by no means "safe." One bad loss and they're back on the wrong side of the line.

The delineation grows even wider between Majors and Mid-Majors as the RPI numbers go up. For teams with RPIs between 41 and 50, only 2 major conference teams were not given At-Large bids. 90% (19 of 21) Major conference teams with RPIs in the 40s went dancing. Conversely, the data was not nearly as promising for Mid-Major schools. Only 3 Mid-Major schools with an RPI in the 40s got bids while 10 were left out in the cold. Only 23% of At-Large eligible Mid-Major schools got tourny bids, while 90% of their Major conference counterparts were invited to the Big Dance.

Obviously, this is further proof that the RPI is not the be-all-end-all of the decisions made by the Tournament Committee. Factors like strength of schedule, quality of victories, and other positives and negatives in a team's body of work play into the decision. But since all of the team sheets the Committee uses work within the framework of the RPI, it is a good baseline data set to use.

There is a distinct divide in the data between teams with RPIs in the 40s and RPIs in the 50s. No mid-major school with an RPI over 50 has made the tournament in the last 4 years. For major conference schools, the probability decreases dramatically. For teams with an RPI between 51 and 60, 11 of 23 (48%) got At-Large bids. Only 2 of 18 teams with RPIs between 61 and 70 got At-Large bids, and only 1 team with an RPI over 70 (USC last year) has gone dancing.

If we take the mark of a Top 50 RPI as a delineator of where the "bubble" starts for Major conference teams, there are a number of schools that have some work to do to improve their resumes: Northwestern, Miami, Oregon, South Florida, Washington, Purdue, Texas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU, Arizona.

As we wind down the last week of the season, I'll be posting my first bracket prediction at the end of the regular season, along with Conference Tournament previews for all 30 Conference Tournaments. I've been doing something of a nightly "Bubble Watch" on Twitter as well for those that need that bracket fix. If you love college basketball as much as I do, this is one of the best times of the year. Get ready for an exciting two weeks leading up to Selection Sunday!