2007 Record: 5-11
The theme in San Francisco for the second consecutive year will be "Hope and Expectations." A year after going 7-9 and missing out on the playoffs by a single game in 2006, the '07 49ers at times resembled the team that won only two games back in 2004. However, the single bright spot that every bad team can look forward to is a high draft pick - too bad the Niners traded theirs to New England for Tully Banta-Cain. So, with only a handful of draft picks and a few other changes to the roster, San Fran enters this season with essentially the same team (plus some questionable "upgrades") that was victorious only five times last year.
Part of the struggles in 2007 can be blamed on the loss of QB Alex Smith for half the season due to injury. His anticipated progression was expected to put the 49ers in the hunt for the playoffs. Now, after missing the final 7 games, questions are flying as to whether his development has stayed the same, improved, or even regressed. Couple these concerns with the fact that Smith and head coach Mike Nolan have had past issues that have now resulted in a QB battle with Shaun Hill, and the beginning of this season could be a shaky one for the team.
Whoever lands the starting spot under center will have two things going in their favor - new offensive coordinator/genius Mike Martz and a talented backfield. Frank Gore was the second important offensive piece to be hampered by injury last year. Despite playing in 15 games, Gore suffered through a high-ankle sprain and amassed almost 600 yards fewer than the 1,700 he had the previous year. Similar to Smith, Gore is entering just his fourth year, indicating that consistency might be an issue. To help take the pressure off of Gore, the 49ers signed Carolina cast-off DeShaun Foster. Foster, who is best suited for a backup role, played in all 16 games for the first time in his career last season, and has gained over 800 yards rushing the last three campaigns. He will be a welcome addition for short yardage and especially goal line plays in 2008. Michael Robinson is a jet-quick, do-everything player waiting for an opportunity to get more touches. When he gets them, look out.
The biggest need on the offensive side of the ball has been the receiving corps ever since T.O. left. You have to give the front office credit for trying to revamp the unit this off-season. I'm just not sure 35-year-old Isaac Bruce and former Arizona Cardinal and first round bust Bryant Johnson are the answers. At this point, I see Bruce bringing veteran stability to the team more than anything else. However, Bruce followed up his last two disappointing years (reception-wise in 2003 and everything-wise in 2005) with above average seasons the next year. Additionally, playing on grass instead of turf for the first time in his career may refresh Bruce and allow him to stay healthy the entire season.
Despite being overshadowed by Boldin and Fitzgerald in Arizona, Johnson, a big 6'3" target, was still considered a major disappointment. He has never reached the 50 catch plateau, and his career high in yards is 740. He'll get a chance to start opposite Bruce because of his speed, but this pickup puzzles me because they already have a player who has put up similar stats in Arnaz Battle. I'm not saying Johnson isn't better, just that Battle has been just as good as the former first round pick. In my mind, both are best suited as 3rd-WR options. Heading into the season, the best option for the quarterbacks is budding star TE Vernon Davis. Davis had over 500 yards in one of the NFL's most anemic offenses last year, and he should only improve with everyone healthy in Mike Martz's scheme. Two sleepers to keep an eye on are veteran Ashley Lelie (if he can return to 2004 form) and second year wide out Jason Hill.
The 49ers also have an interesting O-line led by blue chip youngster Joe Staley and established veteran Barry Sims. Coaches expect second round pick Chilo Rachal to help solidify the interior of the line, but a problem still looms with the lack of a true center on the roster.
Earlier this decade, San Francisco used the draft to focus on defense, but now they have turned to the free agent route the past few seasons. This trend continued when they signed solid defensive end Justin Smith away from Cincinnati. Despite posting a career low 2 sacks (his lowest total since 2003) last year, the 49ers are counting on the somewhat inconsistent Smith to provide a much needed pass rush from the line - the same line which features no other standout names with the exception of first round pick (29th overall) Kentwan Balmer. The inability to stop the run against the likes of Stephen Jackson, Edgerrin James, and Julius Jones, or generate a pass rush against Hasselbeck, Bulger, and the talented aerial attack of Arizona due to a weak D-line could spell disaster all season for the 49ers.
Luckily, the rest of the defense in solid. The linebackers are led by reigning rookie of the year Patrick Willis, who tackles anything that moves. Behind Willis is great depth with the likes of the aforementioned Banta-Cain, Jeff Ulbrich, Brandon Moore, and Manny Lawson, who is returning after missing most of the year due to injury (he had 57 tackles and 2.5 sacks as a rookie). The key may be Moore, however, as the veteran recorded only 22 tackles and 2.5 sacks after an impressive 2006 campaign saw him recording 93 tackles with 6.5 sacks.
The secondary also features depth, led by CB's Nate Clements and Walt Harris. Shawntae Spencer could start on many teams and is one of the best nickel backs in the league (assuming he returns to form after missing a handful of games). Safety Michael Lewis came over from the Eagles to team with fellow newcomer Clements last year and posted an impressive 105 tackles. He and Mark Roman should once again form a formidable last line of defense, and if one of them should falter, Keith Lewis is ready to take over (77 tackles, 2 INT's in 2006). Keep an eye open for rookie Reggie Smith. He can play both corner and safety and is a freakish athlete who simply makes plays. The special teams are solid all around with kicker Joe Nedney, punter Andy Lee, and return man Allan Rossum.
Instead of "Hope and Expectations," maybe this year's theme should be "Health and Return to Form." Alex Smith, Frank Gore, DeShaun Foster, Isaac Bruce, and Manny Lawson all battled injuries last year, while Bryant Johnson, Justin Smith, and Brandon Moore all have pro-bowl talent that must re-emerge for the 49ers to be competitive. Last year, I stayed off of the San Fran bandwagon, stating I thought they were a year away. Now, after injuries and other issues, I believe they are right back where they started at this point last year - one year away. As always, the NFC could produce some mediocre playoff team such as the 49ers, but I think San Fran will struggle to leap frog even Arizona.
John's 2008 Prediction: 6-10
Ian's 2008 Prediction: 3-13
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