2007 Record: 13-3
Coming off their Super Bowl Championship in 2006, the Colts expected big things from their team. When Marvin Harrison went down, Reggie Wayne stepped up with a career season and Peyton Manning remained solid as ever. As usual, the Colts started the season with a huge winning streak, cruising through their first 7 games before the highly touted "Super Bowl 41 1/2" matchup against New England in Week 9. Ironically, neither team from "Super Bowl 41 1/2" won the actual Super Bowl. Indy had bigger problems than New England last year. Mainly, an inability to beat San Diego, even when San Diego didn't have Phillip Rivers or a fully functional LT in a home playoff game. When Peyton Manning retires, he will be remembered for the passing records he set and his stellar pro career, but he should also be remembered for his inability to lead his team to home playoff victories coming off of a bye week.
There are really no surprises with the Colts offense this year. Heading into last season, it was touted as one of the top 3 in the league with New England and Dallas and they should put up similar numbers again this year. The Colts can hurt a team in so many ways, from the tandem of Wayne and Harrison on the outside to Dallas Clark, a prototype wide receiver-tight end hybrid to the all around skill of Joseph Addai whether running the ball or making catches out of the backfield. Anthony Gonzalez should come into his own this year as a #3 receiver, rounding out this offense which mounts one of the best passing attacks in the league. Barring injury, there are minimal cracks in the armor of the Colts offense. The only real cracks come from the offensive line and Manning's inability to stand up to constant pressure. However, Manning showed last season that he could make passes while moving his feet, a scary prospect for opposing defenses. The Colts added Jacksonville backup Quinn Gray to the team to ride the bench and be on call in the event Manning gets injured.
On the other side of the ball, the defensive line has a huge upside with Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney on the corners. However, Freeney is coming off a foot injury, which could mean trouble if he can't regain his old form as an elite pass rusher. The Colts were faced with the unexpected retirement of former Buckeye Defensive Tackle Quinn Pitcock after two seasons in the league. They have replaced Pitcock with former Penn State tackle Ed Johnson, who teams up with the under-productive Raheem Brock to try and shut down the middle of a defense that could be susceptible to strong rushing attacks once again this year. This weakness up the middle is supplemented by question marks in the linebacking corps. In the secondary, the Colts have one of the better safety pairs in the league in Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea, who tallied 64 tackles and a team-high 4 interceptions last season. Sanders has struggled through injuries over his career and has never played in all 16 games in a regular season. Sanders makes a huge difference in the run defense and the Colts feed off of his energy and playmaking when he is in the lineup.
The Colts also have questions on special teams, as kicker Adam Vinatieri had his worst professional season last year. Additionally punter Hunter Smith has been hampered by a hamstring injury. Peyton Manning had offseason surgery, though he is projected to return in full form in Week 1. Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders still haven't played with the team in the preseason along with offensive lineman Ryan Lilja.
Can the Colts overcome these injuries and put another AFC South Championship together? They are probably the deepest team offensively in the South, but their defense, particularly the run defense, has a lot of questions which could give them problems against teams like Minnesota, Jacksonville and San Diego. There is a very realistic possibility that if the Colts run defense struggles early in the year, they could be 1-2 heading into their bye week. Tennessee has given the Colts troubles in recent years but have only beaten the Colts twice since 2002. One of those wins came in a Week 17 game last season that meant nothing to Indy as they had already clinched the division title and the first round bye. The Colts will be challenged this season. Outside of their divisional games, they must play the top two teams from the AFC North (Pittsburgh and Cleveland) and NFC North (Green Bay and Minnesota) on the road. The Colts also have to face defending AFC Runner-up San Diego on the road. Of the non-divisional teams the Colts must face that posted winning records last season, they get only New England at home.
The Colts have a tough schedule set out for them and with the injury question marks, this could very well be the year that they lose their hold on the AFC South. The Colts may also find problems from the Houston Texans if Mario Williams and the Texans stellar front line is able to get pressure on Manning and force him into making poor decisions. As we've been saying, the AFC South is without a doubt the best division in the AFC, and it's going to take a stellar campaign to win the division crown. No team is perfect, but the Colts do have the best offense in the division, which may be enough to carry them to a division title. However, as the old adage goes, "offense wins games, defense wins championships." Honestly, I don't see the Colts as having enough defense to bring home the Lombardi Trophy again this year, but, barring an injury to Peyton Manning, this is without a doubt a playoff team and one of the elite teams in the AFC.
Ian's 2008 Prediction: 10-6
John's 2008 Prediction: 11-5
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