2007 Record: 1-15
It's hard to imagine circumstances not getting better for the Dolphins, but, nevertheless, things are finally looking up in Miami. After winning a combined seven games the last two seasons, changes were imminent, and they started with the introduction of football guru Bill Parcels as what amounts to the director of football operations. The Dolphins entered training camp under new head coach Tony Sparano, who had a tough decision to make regarding the starting quarterback. Promising second year signal caller John Beck appeared to have the early edge on rookie Chad Henne. However, Sparano's job just got tougher (in a good way) within the last week with the addition of established veteran Chad Pennington. Now this is what you call a true QB battle - three guys, all with a legitimate shot at starting in week one. Even Josh McCown, who is currently penciled in as the backup (the loser of Beck/Henne would have been #3), could surprise and be named the starter. To some, it may be a foregone conclusion that Pennington will start, and they are probably right; but based on the other offensive weapons, I think Beck or Henne should get the nod.
The backfield behind whoever is under center is a blend of doubt and hope, potential mediocrity and possible stardom. Ronnie Brown is attempting to come back from a serious knee injury that cost him the final half of 2007. When he went down, Brown was the league's leading rusher, finally showing the promise he demonstrated in college. Coaches hope the return of the enigmatic Ricky Williams, who was lost for the season in his only game last year, will allow Brown to ease back into full time work. Behind these two potential studs, however, is a very bare closet. If Williams decides to take another self-revealing trip to a foreign country in the middle of the season, the Dolphins would be left with unproven Patrick Cobbs backing up Brown. Not good.
When I look at the receiving corps, I also see the words "oozing potential" defining it. Ted Ginn Jr., thus far a first round bust, is being given a chance to start at receiver opposite former Jacksonville starter Ernest Wilford. Underused down south, I believe the 6'4" Wilford has the ability to match what Chris Chambers did for the Dolphins before being traded last season. The third and fourth options, however, are what could make this unit shine. Former third rounder Derek Hagan and undrafted rookie Davone Bess both excelled in pass-happy systems in college. Both receivers mirror the starters - Hagan is another tall receiver at 6'2", while Bess has the speed that made him a threat at Hawaii. This group of wide outs, with their ability to get down field quickly with Ginn and Bess, as well as out leap everyone on jump balls with Wilford and Hagan, is what leads me to believe that either Beck or, even more so, Henne should start in favor of the weak-armed, yet super accurate Pennington. Tight end Anthony Fasano's contribution will depend on the QB. With Pennington and a shorter passing attack, Fasano could be a standout. With the others, he's mediocre at best.
Besides QB, the big mystery remains the line. Number one overall selection Jake Long will team with '04 first rounder Vernon Carey and underrated second year center Samson Satele to form a seemingly above average line. However, the guards still remain a concern. Former 49er Justin Smiley is expected to fill one hole, while Trey Darilek, a converted center, will get first shot at plugging the right side.
On defense, Jason Taylor is finally gone via trade, while, similar to the receivers, the line has extreme potential. Littered with former high draft picks, this unit could dominate if it fulfills its potential. Solid and reliable end Matt Roth is set to start on one side of the line, while a battle ensues between veteran Vonnie Holliday (coming off a down year) and rookie Phillip Merling, a second round steal from Clemson. Second year end Quentin Moses provides great quality depth for both end and linebacker, depending on the scheme employed by coaches. After playing only a single game last year in Dallas, Jason Ferguson comes to Miami to help improve the NFL's worst run defense. He will team with fellow newbie Randy Starks, who comes over from the Titans after an extremely disappointing 2007 campaign. Rodrique Wright provides a solid option in case of injury or continued poor play.
The key for Miami's defense this season may be the linebackers. Joey Porter is coming off a 5.5 sack effort (the third lowest total of his career) in his first year with Miami, while promising youngster Channing Crowder, a usually reliable tackling machine also coming off a poor campaign, has managed only 1.5 sacks in his first three seasons. The other linebacker position may go to another Dallas castoff in Akin Ayodele, but he also was held without a sack last season. For as talented as the line could be, they are still unproven as teammates and as individuals (save Ferguson), meaning the second level of the defense must get more consistent pressure on the QB.
Somehow, the secondary has gotten progressively worse over the years, and it does not appear to be that much stronger this season. Former Giants' first rounder Will Allen has been a letdown his first two years in Miami. Although he provides reliable coverage, he no longer is the force he was all over the field in New York. His numbers are comparable to the opposite corner, Michael Lehan (you should be saying "who?"). When healthy, Andre Goodman is a good nickel option but is still unspectacular. The star and future of the unit is 2006 first round pick Jason Allen. Despite uninspiring tackle numbers, Allen led the team with three INT's in only his second year. He lines up beside Yeremiah Bell, who missed all but one game last season after posting 70 tackles and a couple sacks the year before. Renaldo Hill also missed half of the 2007 season after a great '06. He will battle Bell, as well as newcomers Keith Davis (Dallas) and Chris Crocker (Atlanta), for a starting spot. However, if the line can't stop the run and the LB's can't get pressure, it won't matter who plays in the secondary. The only bright spot is that the wide outs in the division (except Moss and Welker) are average at best.
My Predictions - Pennington will start Week 1, but Henne will be in by Week 10; Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will combine for over 2,000 yards rushing; and Ernest Wilford and Ted Ginn will have close to a combined 1,000 yards receiving in the second half after the QB change. Unfortunately, I see little increase in pressure from the defense, leading to a secondary that continually gets beaten. I like the direction of the Dolphins, but the recent "move" (oh, you know) by the Jets clearly destines them for the AFC East cellar once again.
John's 2008 Prediction: 5-11
Ian's 2008 Prediction: 3-13
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