Ian's BCS Predictions

Branching out a bit from the norm of the blog, here's my predictions for how the Bull Crap Series will play out.

As we near the end of the College Football season, there are some intriguing scenarios and situations that could play out. Topping the list would be a 3-way tie atop the Big XII South if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech this weekend.

I'm making some key assumptions in these predictions, so here we go:

• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech. Due to Tech's weak out of conference schedule, voters see them as the 3rd best team in the Big XII, behind Texas and Oklahoma. Since Texas beat Oklahoma head to head at a neutral sight, Texas gets the benefit of the doubt from voters and goes to the Big XII Championship against Missouri.
• The ACC Coastal ends in a 3-way tie between Georgia Tech, Miami, and North Carolina. UNC beat both teams and earns a trip to the title game to face Maryland in a rematch. Maryland earns their trip to the title game this week by beating Florida State.
• Boise State goes undefeated and finishes high enough to earn a BCS bearth.
• BYU beats Utah in the Mormon Bowl, knocking Utah out of BCS contention.
• Since only two teams from a conference are eligible for the BCS, Texas Tech is eliminated from contention.
  

Florida will beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game, earning their way into the BCS Title game. Texas wins out in the 3-way tie shenanigans of the Big XII South to get into the championship game. They beat Missouri once again and earn a trip to the title game that will be a commentator's dream. A speedy Florida team with an explosive offense and good defense against the dink-and-dunk offense of Texas. Neither team has a running game and this has all the looks of a schoolyard game with the over/under being in the mid 80s. I'd take the over.
Prediction: Florida 52-47



The Fiesta Bowl loses it's Big XII team to the title game and gets first choice of At-large teams. Which means, in the selection process, the Fiesta Bowl has picks #1 and #3 of teams. Oklahoma will end up #3 in the BCS poll and earn an automatic BCS bid. The Fiesta Bowl will snatch them up with the #1 selection. The Fiesta Bowl passes on a rematch of the 2007 game between Oklahoma and Boise State. The Fiesta Bowl uses their #3 selection to take USC, saving the Pac 10 the embarrassment of having a great team sent, once again, to the Holiday Bowl. USC's head-to-head victory over Ohio State propels them into this position ahead of the Buckeyes, the next eligible team for a BCS berth.
Prediction: USC 27-24



Since Florida went to the title game, the Sugar Bowl gets the #2 pick for a team to take the place of the SEC Champion. The Sugar Bowl also has the #4 overall selection (2nd At-Large team). The Sugar Bowl uses the #2 pick to take Alabama, who was undefeated until the SEC Championship. Alabama has had success in the Sugar Bowl before, and the bowl won't want to disappoint their constituency. The Fiesta Bowl will pass on Boise State, letting them fall to the Sugar Bowl, who gets a matchup for the second year in a row of the SEC #2 and the WAC Champion.
Prediction: Alabama 37-20



The Rose Bowl is contractually obligated to take the Big 10 and Pac 10 Champions. In a matchup of an early season blowout, Oregon State gets a shot at revenge on the Nittany Lions. Penn State gets in with a win over Michigan State to win the Big 10 outright. Oregon State controls their own destiny in the Pac 10 right now, and should win out over Arizona and Oregon to get to the Rose Bowl. If not, USC lies in wait for their 4th consecutive Rose Bowl.
Prediction: Penn State 42-17



The Orange Bowl is contractually obligated to take the ACC Champion. It is likely that no one will want the Big East Champion, who will fall to the Orange Bowl. UNC gets in by winning out and Miami losing to Georgia Tech. UNC then beats Maryland in the ACC Championship that one might think of as a basketball title game. Cincinnati beats Pitt this weekend then cruises through Syracuse to win the Big East.
Prediction: North Carolina 24-13



President-Elect Obama said he would like to see an 8-team playoff. Let's take a look at how that might play out.

Key Assumptions:

• Conference Winners of the 6 Major Conferences get in to the playoffs. Two At-large teams are selected using rules similar to the BCS process.
• Seeds are determined by Final BCS Standings.

Quarterfinal Matchups

#1 seed Florida gets #8 seed North Carolina, the lowest-ranking team of the 8 chosen.

#2 Texas draws #7 Oregon State

#3 Penn State vs. #6 Cincinnati

The 4-5 matchup is comprised of two at-large teams. In this case, the highest two from the BCS Standings are taken. Oklahoma's win over Texas Tech keeps them in the #3 spot behind Texas and Florida. Then it falls to a debate between USC and Alabama. The SEC lobby wins out over the Pac 10 lobby, getting Bama the spot.

Predictions:
Florida over North Carolina
Texas over Oregon State
Penn State over Cincinnati
Oklahoma over Alabama

Semi-Final Matchups:
#1 Florida vs. #4 Oklahoma
#2 Texas vs. #3 Penn State
Who wouldn't want to see these two matchups? This would be a great "Final Four." In two historic matchups for the ages, Florida and Texas prevail (both barely), in spite of my high bias towards Penn State.

Title Game: Florida vs. Texas
Prediction: Florida

Obama's Original Plan:
President-elect Obama originally said he wanted to see "the top eight teams in a playoff." I made the assumption that, due to the lobbying power of the major conferences, they would each get a champion into the playoff system. But let's for a minute assume that these big power-brokers didn't have control over the system and we actually got to see a playoff with the top Eight teams.

Current Top Eight: Alabama, Texas Tech, Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, USC, Utah, Penn State

Ian's Predicted Top Eight: Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Texas Tech, USC, Penn State, Boise State

The Matchups: Florida v. Boise State, Texas v. Penn State, Oklahoma v. USC, Alabama v. Texas Tech

Predictions: Florida, Texas, USC, Texas Tech

Semi-Finals: Florida over Texas Tech, USC over Texas (wow these would be two great matchups)

Championship: Florida over USC

Obviously, you can all tell who I think is the best team in the nation, and in a month and a half we'll find out. Did all these predictions serve any purpose? Not unless I'm right!