Updated Olympic Hockey Scenarios

Only one game remains in the preliminary round of the Olympic hockey tournament, the Canada-Finland showdown for first place in Group B. With the standings in the other two groups sorted out, we have a  very clear picture of how the bracketed portion of the tournament will look.

Group A

Team	Record	Pts	GD	GF
USA	2-1-0-0	8	+11	15
Russia	1-1-1-0	6	+3	8
Slovenia	1-0-0-2	3	-5	6
Slovakia	0-0-1-2	1	-9	2

Note: Record is displayed as W-OTW-OTL-L

Group B

Team	Record	Pts	GD	GF
Finland	2-0-0-0	6	+9	14
Canada	2-0-0-0	6	+8	9
Austria	1-0-0-2	3	-8	7
Norway	0-0-0-3	0	-8	3

Group C

Team	Record	Pts	GD	GF
Sweden	3-0-0-0	9	+5	10
Switzerland	2-0-0-1	6	+1	2
Czech Rep	1-0-0-2	3	-1	6
Latvia	0-0-0-3	0	-5	5

As a reminder, here is how the seeding for the knockout portion of the tournament is decided.

• Teams are seeded based on order of finish in their groups. The 3 first place teams get the top 3 seeds, then the 2nd place teams, 3rd place teams and so forth. 
• Teams receive 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an OT/Shootout win and 1 for an OT/Shootout loss.
• Amongst each set of teams that finished in the same place, they are seeded based on points.
• Any ties on points are broken by Goal Differential, Goals Scored, then IIHF World Ranking.

The bottom of the bracket is already decided: 

7. Czech Republic

8. Slovenia

9. Austria

10. Slovakia

11. Latvia

12. Norway

The Czechs will play Slovakia and Austria will play Slovenia in the opening round. Latvia will play the #6 seed and Norway will play the #5 seed

Here are the two scenarios in play for the Canada-Finland game:

If Canada-Finland ends in regulation

• The winner will be the #1 seed
• Sweden will be the #2 seed
• The USA will be the #3 seed
• The loser will be the #4 seed unless:
• If Canada wins by 7 or 8, Russia will be the #4 seed Finland the #5 seed and Switzerland the #6 seed
• If Canada wins by 9 or more, Russia will be the #4 seed, Switzerland the #5 seed and Finland the #6 seed
• If Finland wins by 5, 6 or 7, Russia will be the #4 seed, Canada the #5 seed and Switzerland the #6 seed
• If Finland wins by 8 or more, Russia will be the #4 seed, Switzerland the #5 seed and Canada the #6 seed.

If Canada-Finland ends in Overtime

• Sweden will be the #1 seed 
• The USA will be the #2 seed 
• The winner will be the #3 seed
• The loser will be the #4 seed
• Russia will be the #5 seed
• Switzerland will be the #6 seed

What does this mean for the US? As the #2 or #3 seed, the US will not have to face Russia (the #4 or #5 seed) until the medal round. The US would likely perfer to see Canada on the other half of the bracket (either as the #1 or #4 seed) which is possible if the Canada-Finland game ends in regulation. Additionally, this gives the US a relatively easy path to the semi-finals.