Thursday, October 25, 2012

WPIAL Week 9 Playoff Scenarios


We have come down to it, the last week of the high school football regular season. Has it really gone by this fast? Wow. Of the 64 playoff spots in the four classes, 15 are still up for grabs heading into the final week of the season. Sadly, the way things worked out there are only two Casket Matches - one in AA between Shady Side Academy and Kittanning and another in Class A between Avonworth and Northgate. In five conferences, there are head-to-head games between the top two teams that will decide the conference champions. Don't forget to check out my WPIAL Standings page for a full look at the conference standings and tiebreakers.

AAAA

12 of 16 playoff spots clinched
Top 5 teams from each conference make the playoffs plus the 6th place team with the best conference record

Foothills Conference

Conference Champion: Gateway (7-0, 7-1)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Penn-Trafford (6-1, 6-2), McKeesport (5-2, 5-3), Hempfield (4-3, 4-4)

In the Running: Kiski Area (3-4, 3-5), Altoona (3-4, 3-5), Connellsville (2-5, 2-6)

The Story
Kiski holds a head-to-head win over Altoona, which is keeping them in the last playoff spot for now. Despite head-to-head losses to Altoona and Connellsville, Hempfield is in the playoffs thanks to racking up enough Gardner Points to win a 3-way tiebreaker with Kiski and Altoona. Connellsville can not finish in the top 5, but has an outside shot at the #16 seed. Altoona is currently leading the race for the #16 seed.

Scenarios:

  • Kiski clinches a playoff spot with a win over Latrobe or an Altoona loss
  • Altoona clinches a playoff spot with a win over Connellsville and a Kiski loss

Northern Eight Conference

Conference Champion:  North Allegheny (6-0, 8-0)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Seneca Valley (5-1, 7-1), Central Catholic (4-2, 6-2), North Hills (4-2, 6-2), Butler (3-3, 4-4)

The Story
Everything is more or less decided in the Northern Eight Conference. All 5 playoff spots have been clinched (with Butler making the playoffs for the first time in ages). Pine-Richland has no more conference games and does not have enough wins to be in contention for the #16 seed.

Southeastern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Mt Lebanon (7-0, 7-1), Upper St Clair (6-1, 7-1), Woodland Hills (5-2, 6-2), Bethel Park (5-2, 5-3)

In the Running: Peters Twp (3-4, 4-4), Penn Hills (3-4, 3-5)

The Story
Once again arch-rivals Mt Lebanon and Upper St Clair meet on the last week of the season to determine the conference champion. Peters Twp has the edge on Penn Hills for the last playoff spot based on a head-to-head victory.

Scenarios:

  • The winner of Mt Lebanon-Upper St Clair wins the Conference Championship
  • Peters Twp clinches a playoff spot with a win over Canon-McMillan
  • Penn Hills clinches a playoff spot with a win over Woodland Hills and a Peters Twp loss

The Battle For 16th

Per WPIAL rules, only the "best seven" section games count towards determining playoff positioning for the #16 seed. Gardner Points is the next tiebreaker. Gardner Points are calculated by awarding 10 points for each win by the teams that the team in question beat. For example, Altoona beat Norwin (1 win), Hempfield (4 wins), and Latrobe (1 win) giving them 60 Gardner Points.

Current Leader: Altoona (3-4, 3-5, 60 GP)

In the Running: Penn Hills (3-4, 3-5, 30 GP),  Connellsville (2-5, 2-6, 50 GP)

Others: Kiski Area (3-4, 3-5, 60 GP), Peters Twp (3-4, 4-4, 50 GP)

The Story
The 16th seed will either come from the Foothills or Southeastern Conference. In both conferences, the 5th place team must be decided before the battle for the 16 seed can be determined. Kiski and Peters Twp have the inside tracks on the respective #5 spots, both having "win and in" scenarios. Both Altoona and Penn Hills need a win along with the teams ahead of them to lose in order to finish 5th. Penn Hills can earn the #16 seed with a win over Woodland Hills and a loss by Altoona. Connellsville can move into front-runner status with a head-to-head win over Altoona and a loss by Penn Hills.


AAA

11 of 16 playoff spots clinched
Top 5 teams from each conference make the playoffs plus the 6th place team with the best conference record

Big Nine Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: West Mifflin (7-0, 8-0), Thomas Jefferson (7-0, 8-0), Elizabeth Forward (5-3, 5-3), Ringgold (4-3, 4-4),

In the Running: Trinity (4-3, 4-4),  Belle Vernon (3-4, 3-5)

The Story
Once again West Mifflin and TJ meet in the final week of the season with the Conference Championship on the line. They are the only two remaining undefeated teams in AAA, so you have to figure the #1 seed is at stake. Belle Vernon needs to beat Albert Gallatin (who hold the WPIAL-leading 17-game losing streak) and a Trinity loss to Ringgold to finish 5th as Belle Vernon holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. The 6th place team (Belle Vernon or Trinity) will be in the running for the #16 seed.

Scenarios:

  • Trinity clinches a playoff spot with a win over Ringgold or a Belle Vernon loss
  • Belle Vernon clinches a playoff spot with a win over Albert Gallatin and a Trinity loss

Greater Allegheny Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Mars (6-1, 7-1), Hampton (6-1, 7-1), Franklin Regional (5-2, 6-2), Knoch (5-2, 6-2)

In the Running: Hollidaysburg (3-4, 3-5), Highlands (3-4, 4-4), Indiana (2-5, 2-6)

The Story
Mars and Hampton meet with the Conference Championship on the line. Hollidaysburg holds the edge for the 5th place spot with a head-to-head win over Highlands, but Indiana could force a 3-way tie by beating Hollidaysburg and Highlands losing to Knoch. The 6th place team will be in the running for the #16 seed.

Scenarios:

  • Hollidaysburg clinches a playoff spot with a win over Indiana loss
  • If Hollidaysburg loses to Indiana by less than 4 points Highlands must lose to Knoch by at least 6 more points than Hollidaysburg loses by for Hollidaysburg to win the 3-way tie for 5th.
  • Highlands clinches a playoff spot with a win over Knoch and a Hollidaysburg loss
  • If Highlands loses to Knoch by less than 7 points and Indiana beats Hollidaysburg, Highlands wins the 3-way tie for 5th.
  • If Highlands loses to Knoch by 7-9 points, Hollidaysburg must lose by at least 5 fewer points than Highlands loses by in order for Highlands to win the 3-way tie for 5th.
  • Indiana clinches a playoff spot with a win over Hollidaysburg by 10 or more points and a Highlands loss by 10 or more points.

Parkway Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Central Valley (7-1, 7-1), West Allegheny (6-1, 7-1), Montour (6-1, 7-1)

In the Running: Ambridge (3-4, 3-5), Hopewell (3-4, 3-5), New Castle (3-4, 4-4), Blackhawk (2-5, 2-6)

The Story
West Allegheny threw a wrench into the standings with a 5-3 upset victory over Montour last week, forcing a 3-way tie atop the standings. Central Valley now has the inside track to the Conference Championship with their 69 WPIAL Tiebreaker points (West A 33, Montour 44). The middle of the pack is a mess, with 4 teams vying for the last 2 playoff spots. Blackhawk has rebounded from early season struggles to come within a win of making the playoffs. The four teams in the running all play each other this week, but the scenarios are not straightforward.

Scenarios:

  • Hopewell clinches a playoff spot with a win over New Castle or an Ambridge loss
  • New Castle clinches a playoff spot with a win over Hopewell
  • Ambridge clinches a playoff spot with a win over Blackhawk
  • Blackhawk clinches a playoff spot with a win over Ambridge by at least 6 points and a New Castle loss

Battle for 16th

Current Leader: Belle Vernon (3-4, 3-5, 60 GP)

In the Running: Highlands (3-4, 4-4, 40 GP), New Castle (3-4, 4-4, 40 GP), Indiana (2-5, 2-6, 20 GP)

Others: Trinity (4-3, 4-4, 70 GP), Hopewell (3-4, 3-5, 60 GP), Ambridge (3-4, 3-5, 50 GP), Hollidaysburg (3-4, 3-5, 50 GP)

The Story
Belle Vernon has the inside track here with the easiest Week 9 game of any of the teams in the running. If Belle Vernon manages to finish 5th in the Big Nine, Trinity will still have the easiest path to the #16 seed with their 4 wins on the books.

AA

14 of 16 playoff spots clinched
Top 4 from each conference make playoffs

Allegheny Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Freeport (6-1, 6-2), Burrell (6-1, 7-1), Valley (5-2, 6-2)

In the Running: Shady Side Academy (5-2, 5-3), Kittanning (4-3, 4-4)

The Story
Freeport has a head-to-head victory over Burrell and can win the Conference Championship at home. The drop down to AA has been beneficial for the Valley Vikings, who brought a 22-game losing streak into this season and clinched a playoff spot thanks to a victory over Kittanning last week. Valley would win a 3-way tie with Shady Side Academy and Kittanning if it came to that. Shady Side Academy and Kittanning meet in a Casket Match.

Scenarios:

  • Freeport can clinch the Conference Championship a win over Summit Academy
  • Burrell clinches the Conference Championship with a win over Deer Lakes and a Freeport loss

Casket Match
Shady Side Academy vs Kittanning 

Century Conference

Conference Champion: South Fayette (7-0. 8-0)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Seton-La Salle (6-1, 7-1), South Allegheny (6-1, 7-1), Steel Valley (4-3, 4-4)

The Story
Everything is wrapped up in the Century Conference. South Allegheny can force a 3-way tie for the Conference Championship with a win over South Fayette, but South Fayette would still win the 3-way tiebreaker based on WPIAL tiebreaker points. Steel Valley locked up the last playoff spot with South Park's loss last week.

Interstate Conference

Conference Champion: Washington (7-0, 8-0)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Jeanette (7-1, 8-1), Mt Pleasant (6-2, 6-2), GCC (5-3, 6-3)

The Story
Washington has had the conference championship locked up since their wins over Jeanette and Mt Pleasant. GCC eeked out a 2-point win over Yough last week to clinch the last playoff spot. Jeanette blocked an extra point in the second half to beat rival GCC 7-6 on Thursday night so the order of finish at the top is set: Washington, Jeanette, Mt Pleasant, GCC.

Midwestern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Beaver (6-0, 8-0), Aliquippa (6-0, 8-0), Beaver Falls (5-2, 6-2)

In the Running: Mohawk (2-4, 2-6), Freedom (2-4, 3-5), New Brighton (2-4, 2-6)

The Story
The Mighty Quips and Beaver face off for the Conference Championship at The Pit. Aliquippa is the top-ranked AA team and has been absolutely dominating teams this year. Three perennial bottom-feeders from the Midwestern Conference are battling it out for the last playoff spot. Mohawk has the inside track thanks to their head-to-head win over Freedom in the first week of the season, but must beat New Brighton this week. New Brighton's win over Riverside gave them a chance this week to make the playoffs with a win over Mohawk and a Freedom loss. The good news for whoever gets the last playoff spot is that since Aliquippa is the likely #1 seed in the AA bracket, the 4th place team here will most likely be the #15 seed.

Scenarios:

  • The winner of Aliquippa-Beaver wins the Conference Championship
  • Mohawk clinches a playoff spot with a win over New Brighton
  • Freedom clinches a playoff spot with a win over Riverside and a Mohawk loss
  • New Brighton clinches a playoff spot with a win over Mohawk and a Freedom loss

A

12 of 16 playoff spots clinched
Top 4 from each conference make playoffs

Big Seven Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Rochester (7-0, 8-0), Neshannock (6-1, 7-1), Sto-Rox (6-1, 7-1), Union (5-2, 6-2)

The Story
The four playoff spots in the Big Seven Conference are wrapped up, but the Conference Championship has yet to be decided. The top four teams face off this week, as Rochester plays Sto-Rox and Neshannock plays Union. Rochester has the inside track to the title and just needs to beat Sto-Rox to earn the crown. Sto-Rox can win the Conference Championship outright with a win and a Neshannock loss. Neshannock can not win the conference title due to tiebreaker points, but in the event of a 3-way tie (which would happen if Sto-Rox and Neshannock win), Sto-Rox would win the Conference Championship and Rochester would finish second based on a head-to-head win over Neshannock.

Scenarios:

  • If Rochester and Neshannock win, the order of finish will be Rochester, Neshannock, Sto-Rox, Union
  • If Rochester and Union win, the order of finish will be Rochester, Sto-Rox, Union, Neshannock
  • If Sto-Rox and Neshannock win, the order of finish will be Sto-Rox, Rochester, Neshannock, Union
  • If Sto-Rox and Union win, the order of finish will be Sto-Rox, Rochester, Union, Neshannock

Black Hills Conference

Conference Champion: Clairton (8-0, 8-0)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Monessen (7-1, 7-1), Brentwood (5-3, 5-3), Bishop Canevin (5-3, 5-3)

Imani Christian is currently 6-2 but is ineligible for the playoffs

The Story
The four playoff spots are locked up here, and Clairton has clinched the conference title. Imani Christian, in their first year of WPIAL competition, is ineligible for the playoffs but has put together a surprisingly solid season, including a win over Brentwood. The Saints are the last hurdle standing between the Clairton Bears and another undefeated season, and if any team in the conference has the athletes to run with the Bears, it might just be the Saints.

Eastern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: North Catholic (6-1, 6-2), Springdale (5-2, 5-3), Apollo-Ridge (5-2, 5-3)

In the Running: Northgate (5-2, 5-3), Avonworth (4-3, 4-4)

The Story
After looking like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference early in the season, Northgate has dropped 2 in a row to Apollo-Ridge and Springdale and now find themselves in a casket match game with Avonworth. Avonworth dropped a game to Wilkinsburg last week, which put them behind the 8-ball but they can still get in with a win over rival Northgate. North Catholic has the inside track to the Conference Championship, needing just a win over last place Leechburg to secure the conference crown. Springdale has head-to-head wins over Apollo-Ridge and Northgate will finish second in the conference with a win.

Scenarios:

  • North Catholic clinches the Conference Championship with a win over Leechburg or a Northgate loss
Casket Match
Northgate vs Avonworth


Tri-County South Conference

Conference Champion: Beth-Center (7-1, 7-1)

Clinched Playoff Spot: no others

In the Running: Frazier (5-2, 6-2), Jefferson-Morgan (5-2, 6-2), Carmichaels (5-2, 6-2), Avella (4-3, 5-3)

The Story
The feel-good story of the year, the Avella Eagles, were on the verge of clinching a playoff spot, but have dropped 3 in a row and now have an uphill battle to make the playoffs. Jefferson-Morgan has the inside track to the second spot with head-to-head wins over Frazier and Carmichaels.

Scenarios:

  • If Jefferson-Morgan beats Geibel; Jefferson-Morgan, Carmichaels, and Frazier make the playoffs
  • Carmichaels clinches a playoff spot with a win over West Greene
  • Frazier clinches a playoff spot with a win over Mapletown
  • Avella clinches a playoff spot with a win over Bentworth, a loss by Jefferson-Morgan, and wins by Carmichaels and Frazier
  • If Jefferson-Morgan. Carmichaels, and Frazier lose and Avella wins all 4 teams will be 5-3 and Avella would miss the playoffs due to head-to-head tiebreakers.
  • If there is a 3-way tie between Jefferson-Morgan, Carmichaels, and Avella: Jefferson-Morgan and Carmichaels would make the playoffs due to Gardner Points.
  • If there is a 3-way tie between Jefferson-Morgan, Frazier, and Avella: Jefferson-Morgan and Frazier make the playoffs due to Gardner Points. 

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