WPIAL Playoff Pairings

The WPIAL Playoff matchups were released tonight. Here's a rundown of the first round games. All games at the higher seed's field on Friday at 7:30pm unless otherwise noted. Yes, the Single-A bracket makes no sense. I'll update this post later with some analysis.

AAAA

1. North Allegheny (7-0, 9-0) vs 16. Altoona (4-4, 4-5)
8. McKeesport (5-3, 5-4) vs 9. Bethel Park (6-2, 6-3)

4. Seneca Valley (6-1, 8-1) vs 13. Hempfield (4-4, 4-5)
5. Mt. Lebanon (7-1, 7-2) vs 12. Butler (3-4, 4-5)

2. Gateway (8-0, 8-1) vs 15. Peters Twp (4-4, 5-4)
7. Woodland Hills (6-2, 7-2) vs 10. North Hills (4-3, 6-3)

3. Upper St Clair (7-1, 8-1) vs 14. Kiski Area (4-4, 4-5)
6. Penn-Trafford (7-1, 7-2) vs 11. Central Catholic (5-2, 7-2)

Analysis: North Allegheny is clearly the best team in Quad-A and the two-time defending WPIAL champions. The top 5 seeds pretty much went down as expected. The only real confusing seeding decision is Central Catholic, the 3rd place team from the Northern Eight Conference, seeded behind a North Hills team that finished 4th in the same conference and that the Vikings beat head-to-head. Bethel Park at #9 makes sense as they do have the best win of the teams in the bottom half - an upset of Southeastern Conference Champion Upper St Clair.

AAA

1. Thomas Jefferson vs 16. Hollidaysburg
8. Franklin Regional vs 9. Elizabeth Forward

4. West Allegheny vs 13. Ringgold
5. Montour vs 12. Trinity

2. Mars vs 15. Blackhawk
7. West Mifflin vs 10. Knoch

3. Central Valley vs 14. Belle Vernon
6. Hampton vs 11. Hopewell

Analysis: TJ was the only undefeated team in AAA this year and deserved to be the #1 seed. The 3 teams that tied atop the Parkway Conference are seeded 3, 4, and 5 which makes sense as the committee didn't want to break them up. I'm not sure how a 2-loss Hampton team that dropped a game to Greensburg Salem (whose only other win was over Derry) got seeded higher than West Mifflin, whose only loss was to TJ. All in all, the Committee seemed to think highly of the Greater Allegheny Conference, as its top teams were seeded 2, 6, 8, and 10.

AA

1. Aliquippa vs 16. Steel Valley
8. Burrell vs 9. Mt. Pleasant

4. Jeanette vs 13. South Allegheny
5. Beaver vs 12. Valley

2. South Fayette vs 15. Freedom
7. Freeport vs 10. Beaver Falls

3. Washington vs 14. Shady Side Academy
6. Seton-La Salle vs 11. Greensburg Central Catholic

Analysis: This class is the top 3 teams and everyone else. Aliquippa and South Fayette were the two most dominant teams in all of the WPIAL this year, and Washington was just stomping teams by the end of the year. Clearly, Washington's 60-6 rout of Freeport had an impact on the committee as Freeport (Allegheny Conference Champion) was dropped all the way to the 7-seed.

A

1. Clairton vs 16. Frazier
8. Springdale vs 9. Brentwood

4. Jefferson-Morgan vs 13. Neshannock
5. Monessen vs 12. Apollo-Ridge

2. Sto-Rox vs 15. Carmichaels
7. Beth-Center vs 10. Union

3. Rochester vs 14. Avonworth
6. North Catholic vs 11. Bishop Canevin

Analysis: This bracket makes no sense. Beth-Center beat Jefferson-Morgan 38-7 and won the Tri-County South yet they are seeded 3 spots below Jefferson-Morgan. Similarly, Neshannock finished 3rd in the Big Seven and beat Union 42-34 yet are seeded 3 spots below Union. For the 3rd straight year, Springdale has a looming second round game with Clairton. Sorry, Dynamos. The only logic I can come up with for the WPIAL seeding the bracket this way is this: They put together a "true seed" list that was Clairton, Sto-Rox, Rochester, Neshannock, Monessen, North Catholic, Beth-Center, Springdale, Brentwood, Union, Bishop Canevin, Apollo-Ridge, Jefferson-Morgan, Avonworth, Carmichaels, Frazier. Obviously Jefferson-Morgan had to be in the top half and Neshannock had to be in the bottom half. So rather than bumping everyone in the top half up a seed, they "flipped" Jefferson-Morgan and Neshannock so that their "true #4" seed (Neshannock) was the actual #13 seed and the "true #13" seed (Jefferson-Morgan) was the actual #4 seed, thus preserving the matchup and keeping the teams in approximate order where they wanted them. From a bracketology standpoint this makes limited sense, but it's the only logic I can come up with. Why even have "bracketing principles" if you're not going to follow them?

WPIAL Playoff Outlook

Regular season games came to a roaring conclusion on Friday night with Avonworth holding off a 2-point conversion by Northgate in overtime to come away with a victory in one of the two Casket Matches. In AAAA, Upper St Clair stormed back from down 17-0 to beat rival Mt Lebanon 21-19. Incredibly enough, the season ended with 9 different 3-way ties in the standings. AAA was the worst offender with both the Greater Allegheny Conference and the Parkway Conference having two 3-way ties in the standings.

The Playoff Selection Show is Monday night at 7pm, but for now, here's a look at who's in and where we think they'll be seeded.

AAAA

Foothills Conference - 1. Gateway (8-0, 8-1), 2. Penn-Trafford (7-1, 7-2), 3. McKeesport (5-3, 5-4), 4. Hempfield (4-4, 4-5), 5. Kiski Area (4-4, 4-5), 6. Altoona (4-4, 4-5)

Northern Eight Conference - 1. North Allegheny (7-0, 9-0), 2. Seneca Valley (6-1, 8-1), 3. Central Catholic (5-2, 7-2), 4. North Hills (4-3, 6-3), 5. Butler (3-4, 4-5)

Southeastern Conference - 1. Upper St. Clair (7-1, 8-1), 2. Mt. Lebanon (7-1, 7-2), 3. Woodland Hills (6-2, 7-2), 4. Bethel Park (6-2, 6-3), 5. Peters Twp (4-4, 5-4)

Hempfield finished 4th in the Foothills Conference by winning the 3-way tie with Kiski and Altoona on Gardner Points (110 to Kiski and Altoona's 80). Kiski beat Altoona head-to-head for the 5th spot. Altoona's 4 wins earned them the "Wild Card" spot over Penn Hills (3 wins) and Pine-Richland (2 wins).

Predicted Playoff Seeding

1. North Allegheny - The only undefeated team left in Quad-A and the two-time defending WPIAL champions

2. Gateway - Foothills Conference Champion, their only loss on the season was a non-conference game against North Allegheny

3. Upper St Clair - After storming from behind to beat Mt. Lebanon for the Conference title, the Panthers should get the #3 seed

4. Seneca Valley - The two-headed monster of QB Jordan Brown and RB Forrest Barnes made them the 3rd highest scoring team in Quad-A

5. Mt. Lebanon - The Blue Devils only two losses are to NA and USC in the first and last games of the season. 

6. Woodland Hills - QB Cody McClelland threw for almost 1300 yards and 17 touchdowns this season leading an aerial assault for the Wolverines.

7. Penn-Trafford - The Indians return to the playoffs with a balanced offense. They don't have any star players but they are solid all around the field.

8. McKeesport - The Tigers got the #8 seed over Central Catholic by virtue of WPIAL tiebreakers

9. Central Catholic - The Vikings have the 2nd best defense in Quad-A, giving up only 8.1 points per game. The defense pitched a shutout in 5 of their 7 wins.

10. Bethel Park - They were the only team to beat Conference Champion Upper St Clair this season

11. North Hills - Legendary coach Jack McCurry has his team in the playoffs once again

12. Hempfield - The biggest enigma in AAAA, they beat McKeesport early in the season then dropped games to Altoona and Connellsville

13. Kiski Area - The Cavaliers had a surprisingly good season and they get bumped up a little above their "true seed" so they don't have to travel to the South Hills

14. Butler - A little higher than their "true seed" so that they don't have to travel to the South Hills. First playoff season in decades for the Golden Tornado

15. Peters Twp - A little lower than their "true seed" but moved around because WPIAL takes travel time/distance into account. Dominated teams on the ground early in the season.

16. Altoona - They won the Wild Card but have the unfortunate luck of getting to play North Allegheny

AAA

Big Nine Conference - 1. Thomas Jefferson (8-0, 9-0), 2. West Mifflin (7-1, 8-1), 3. Trinity (5-3, 5-4), 4. Elizabeth Forward (5-3, 6-3), 5. Ringgold (4-4, 4-5), 6. Belle Vernon (4-4, 4-5)
Greater Allegheny Conference - 1. Mars (7-1, 8-1), 2. Hampton (6-2, 7-2), 3. Franklin Regional (6-2, 7-2), 4. Knoch (6-2, 7-2), 5. Hollidaysburg (3-5, 3-6)
Parkway Conference - 1. Central Valley (7-1, 7-2), 2. West Allegheny (7-1, 8-1), 3. Montour (7-1, 8-1), 4. Hopewell (4-4, 4-5), 5. Blackhawk (3-5, 3-6)

Belle Vernon earns the "Wild Card" spot with 4 wins over Highlands 3 wins and Ambridge's 3 wins. In the Greater Allegheny Conference, Hampton won the 3-way tie for 2nd with head-to-head wins over Franklin Regional and Knoch. Franklin Regional beat Knoch head-to-head for 3rd place. In the 3-way tie for 5th between Hollidaysburg, Highlands, and Indiana, Hollidaysburg and Highlands both had -17 tiebreaker points, putting them ahead of Indiana (-22). The tiebreaker then reverted to head-to-head where Hollidaysburg beat Highlands. In the Parkway conference, Central Valley won the Conference Championship on Tiebreaker Points (69 to Montour's 55 and West Allegheny's 43). West Allegheny finished second by virtue of a head-to-head win over Montour. In the 3-way tie for 5th, Blackhawk won on Tiebreaker Points (-5 to Ambridge's -14 and New Castle's -20).

Predicted Playoff Seeding

1. Thomas Jefferson - The only undefeated team in AAA is the easy choice for the #1 seed

2. Central Valley - Any chance of them getting the #1 seed evaporated when they lost to AA Beaver Falls in a non-conference game on Friday.

3. Mars - The Fighting Planets won the Greater Allegheny Conference with a Week 9 win over Hampton

4. West Allegheny - The Indians finished 2nd in a 3-way tie atop the Parkway thanks to a 5-3 win over Montour. They have been in a ton of close games all season and have found ways to win.

5. West Mifflin - The Titans boast one of the best running backs in AAA, but came up short against TJ for the Conference title

6. Montour - The Spartans might be the best team in AAA. They were #1 for much of the year until they were knocked off by West Allegheny. This is a dangerous team that could very well win it all for the second straight year

7. Hampton - The Talbots rebounded from an early season loss to Greensburg Salem to go on a winning streak that didn't end until they fell to Mars in the last game. 

8. Franklin Regional - The Panthers have a solid team with a great running back in Dane Brown. They will be a tough out.

9. Trinity - The 3rd place team from the Big Nine gets bumped up a little because teams from the same conference can't meet in the first round.

10. Elizabeth Forward - The Warriors have one of the best defenses in AAA, holding both TJ and West Mifflin under 30 points. 

11. Knoch - Given how the seeding above went, Knoch is slightly below their "true seed" and gets a rematch of the WPIAL Championship game with Montour. Tough luck for the Knights.

12. Hopewell - The graduation of Rushel Shell hurt the Vikings, but they still found their way back to the playoffs

13. Ringgold - The Rams enter the playoffs having lost their last 3 games

14. Blackhawk - After seemingly being down and out with a 1-6 record, Blackhawk rebounded to beat Chartiers Valley and Ambridge the last two weeks of the season and win a 3-way tie for the last playoff spot. 

15. Belle Vernon - Much like Blackhawk, Belle Vernon was mired down at the bottom of the standings before winning 3 of their last 4 to earn the "Wild Card" spot. Even though they were the last team in, they get the 15 seed because TJ is the #1 seed and they can't play TJ in the first round.

16. Hollidaysburg - Hollidaysburg beat Highlands early in the season and rode that victory all the way through a 3-way tie with Highlands and Indiana to earn the 5th spot from the Greater Allegheny Conference.

AA

Allegheny Conference - 1. Freeport (7-1, 7-2), 2. Burrell (7-1, 8-1), 3. Shady Side Academy (6-2, 6-3), 4. Valley (5-3, 6-3)
Century Conference - 1. South Fayette (8-0, 9-0), 2. Seton-La Salle (7-1, 8-1), 3. South Allegheny (6-2, 7-2), 4. Steel Valley (4-4, 4-5)
Interstate Conference - 1. Washington (8-0, 9-0), 2. Jeanette (7-1, 8-1), 3. Mt Pleasant (6-2, 7-2), 4. Greensburg Central Catholic (5-3, 6-3)
Midwestern Conference - 1. Aliquippa (7-0, 9-0), 2. Beaver (6-1, 8-1), 3. Beaver Falls (5-2, 7-2), 4. Freedom (3-4, 4-5)

Predicted Playoff Seeding

1. Aliquippa - The Quips put together one of the most dominant seasons in their storied history, racking up a WPIAL-leading 470 points while only surrendering 36. 

2. South Fayette - South Fayette has returned to form from the season where they won the WPIAL championship. They have a Brumbaugh at quarterback and a Pitt recruit at Wide Receiver. Brett Brumbaugh threw for almost 2000 yards and 30 touchdowns. They might be the only team in AA that can challenge Aliquippa.

3. Washington - The Prexies put together a dominant season on the shoulders of junior RB Shai McKenzie who ran for 1500 yards and 25 touchdowns.

4. Jeanette - The Jayhawks only loss was an 18-15 defeat by Washington. Jeanette dominated the lesser opponents on their schedule, but only made it past the other playoff teams (Mt Pleasant and GCC) by one point each.

5. Freeport - The Jackets got blown out of the water by Washington two weeks ago, but their head-to-head victory over rival Burrell was enough to give them the Allegheny Conference crown.

6. Seton-La Salle - The Rebels only loss was a 51-12 drubbing by South Fayette. That was the only time the Rebels staunch defense gave up more than 7 points in a game.

7. Beaver - The Bobcats gave Aliquippa their closest game of the season, but still fell 39-7. Beaver's defense wasn't as stout as last season.

8. Burrell - The Bucs are a good team whose only loss was to Freeport in a game where their quarterback was hurt. RB Cole Bush ran for 1500 yards and 26 touchdowns this season.

9. Beaver Falls - The Tigers got embarrassed by Aliquippa on the Game of the Week on ROOT a few weeks back but rebounded by beating Central Valley, one of the top teams in AAA last week.

10. South Allegheny - The Gladiators put together a season for the ages, returning to the playoffs for the first time since 1994.

11. Mt. Pleasant - The Vikings averaged almost 40 points per game and came close against Jeanette.

12. Greensburg Central Catholic - GCC started slow but rebounded to make the playoffs on the backs of one of the best defenses in AA that gave up only 12 points per game.

13. Shady Side Academy - The Indians won a Casket Match against Kittanning to secure a playoff spot in the last game of the season.

14. Valley - In my season preview, I dubbed Valley as my sleeper team in AA. For a team that carried a 22-game losing streak into the season, they turned things around fast, including an upset of conference champion Freeport.

15. Freedom - The Bulldogs made their way out of the mess at the bottom of the Midwestern Conference to earn their first playoff berth in years. They should be the #16 seed but get bumped up because they can't face Aliquippa in Round 1.

16. Steel Valley - The Ironmen get the bad luck of being shuffled down to face Aliquippa because Freedom can't.

A

Big Seven Conference - 1. Sto-Rox (7-1, 8-1), 2. Rochester (7-1, 8-1), 3. Neshannock (7-1, 8-1), 4. Union (5-3, 6-3)
Black Hills Conference - 1. Clairton (9-0, 9-0), 2. Monessen (8-1, 8-1), 3. Brentwood (6-3, 6-3), 4. Bishop Canevin (6-3, 6-3)
Eastern Conference - 1. North Catholic (7-1, 7-2), 2. Springdale (6-2, 6-3), 3. Apollo-Ridge (6-2, 6-3), 4. Avonworth (5-3, 5-4)
Tri-County South Conference - 1. Beth-Center (7-1, 8-1), 2. Jefferson-Morgan (6-2, 7-2), 3. Carmichaels (6-2, 7-2), 4. Frazier (6-2, 7-2)

Predicted Playoff Seeding

1. Clairton - Bout Dat streak

2. Sto-Rox - The Vikings beat Rochester in the last game of the season to earn the conference title. A 1-point loss to Neshannock is the only blemish on their record and they look to return to Heinz Field for the second consecutive season.

3. Monessen - They boast WVU recruit Chavaz Rawlins at QB who accounted for over 1400 yards of total offense this season. Their only loss was to Clairton.

4. Rochester - The Rams carried an undefeated record into the last week of the season before losing to Sto-Rox. They finish 2nd in the Big Seven based on a head-to-head win over Neshannock.

5. North Catholic - My alma mater won their second conference title in 4 seasons on the legs of sophomore RB PJ Fulmore who ran for over 1100 yards and 14 scores. The Trojans got stomped in a non-conference loss to Neshannock so I don't see any way they get seeded higher than Rochester.

6. Beth-Center - The Bulldogs were expected to run through the Tri-County South Conference, but a 21-14 loss to Frazier marred their record and was the only time they were held under 35 points.

7. Springdale - The Dynamos finally get seeded on the side of the bracket opposite Clairton. They have a dominant running game behind 1400-yard rusher Sean Dugan and the 3rd best defense in Class A.

8. Jefferson-Morgan - The Rockets came in second in the Tri-County South, winning a 3-way tiebreaker with Carmichaels and Frazier on head-to-head victories over both.

9. Neshannock  - The Lancers are probably one of the top 5 teams in Class A, having drubbed North Catholic to the tune of 42-7 just 2 weeks ago, but because they got the short end of the stick on the 3-way tie atop the Big Seven, they will have to play Clairton in the second round.

10. Brentwood - The Spartans have been the center of controversy this year from incidents that occurred at a basketball game against Monessen in the spring to "mysteriously" turning on the sprinklers right before their game against Clairton to try to slow down the Bears. 

11. Bishop Canevin - They lost a lot of talent from last year's team, but still put together a solid playoff season, which was an accomplishment in the brutal Black Hills Conference

12. Union - The Scotties were one of the surprises of the season, coming from the bottom of the Big Seven last year to making the playoffs. This is a dangerous team that can put points on the board. Don't be surprised if they pull a first round upset.

13. Apollo-Ridge - The Vikings were great in their wins but terrible in their losses. Fortunately, their first year in Single-A saw them in the Eastern Conference and head-to-head wins over Northgate and Avonworth (in OT) got them in.

14. Carmichaels - The Mighty Mikes finished 3rd by virtue of a head-to-head win over Frazier. The Tri-County South is not a good conference, so that isn't saying much.

15. Avonworth - The Antelopes stopped a 2-point conversion try in overtime to beat rival Northgate in a Casket Match and make the playoffs. That's about as exciting as it gets.

16. Frazier - They were the only team to beat Beth-Center this season, but lost to Jefferson-Morgan and Carmichaels head-to-head

Gameday: Washington Redskins

1:00pm

Heinz Field

TV: FOX

Radio: WDVE and other affiliates

What to Watch For

1. Alfred Morris

Yes, the Redskins offense runs through RGIII and stopping him will be a big key to the game, but part of RGIII's success has been predicated upon the success of the Redskins ground game. Alfred Morris is 3rd in the league in rushing yards to the tune of 94 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. Part of it is Morris' tough running style, but a key factor is also Mike Shanahan's zone blocking scheme (something the Steelers have struggled against in the past). If we can contain Morris, we can make the Redskins offense one-dimensional and force RGIII to make throws in what looks like bad weather conditions.

2. RGIII

He is getting more accolades than any rookie quarterback in a long time, and the season isn't even half over yet. Many are calling him the most exciting player in football and he's certainly one of the best athletes on the field any time he straps on a helmet. Unlike other "running" quarterbacks like Michael Vick, RGIII is deadly accurate. He is currently leading the league in completion percentage with an insane 70.4% mark. Only 7 players in NFL history have thrown over 100 passes in a season and completed more than 70%. Griffin could be the 8th. He is a threat to run, but he isn't a "tuck and run" quarterback like Vick, but rather a guy who is always looking to make the throw downfield, but is athletic enough to run when the situation calls for it.

3. The Perfect Storm

No, I'm not talking about the Hurricane and the Arctic Blast that are going to merge in the upcoming days. I'm talking about a red hot Ben Roethlisberger getting to come back home and face the worst passing defense in the league. The Redskins pass defense is just flat out bad. They are last in the league in yards per game, have given up the most receiving touchdowns and the 3rd most points. With all the talk about RGIII this week, you'd better believe that Ben is going to come out with a chip on his shoulder with something to prove.

4. Mike Wallace vs His Hands

Coming into this season, Wallace was a sure-handed receiver and one of the best we'd seen in a long time at tracking a deep ball over his shoulder and making a play on it. That said, he has five drops over the past two games, including four against the Bengals alone. Up to this point, he had never had four drops in an entire season, let alone in one game. Wallace made a big deal over getting a new contract this off-season, and he is treading on thin ice if he can't hold on to the ball. He finished the game last week with 8 catches, but most of those were on short passes. Wallace made a name for himself catching deep balls and if he's not going to catch passes that hit him right in the hands, he's going to have a hard time getting that big contract he wants.

5. Stacking Wins

The Redskins come in at 3-4, and even though they are talented offensively, their porous defense makes them a mediocre team at best. This is the kind of team the Steelers need to separate themselves from. Are they going to mire in mediocrity all year and struggle against other mediocre teams (which is entirely possible considering we already have two losses to bad teams) or are we going to take that next step forward towards playoff contention? Every win counts, and as Mike Tomlin loves to say, "we need to stack wins together."

WPIAL Week 9 Playoff Scenarios

We have come down to it, the last week of the high school football regular season. Has it really gone by this fast? Wow. Of the 64 playoff spots in the four classes, 15 are still up for grabs heading into the final week of the season. Sadly, the way things worked out there are only two Casket Matches - one in AA between Shady Side Academy and Kittanning and another in Class A between Avonworth and Northgate. In five conferences, there are head-to-head games between the top two teams that will decide the conference champions. Don't forget to check out my WPIAL Standings page for a full look at the conference standings and tiebreakers.

AAAA

12 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 5 teams from each conference make the playoffs plus the 6th place team with the best conference record

Foothills Conference

Conference Champion: Gateway (7-0, 7-1)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Penn-Trafford (6-1, 6-2), McKeesport (5-2, 5-3), Hempfield (4-3, 4-4)

In the Running: Kiski Area (3-4, 3-5), Altoona (3-4, 3-5), Connellsville (2-5, 2-6)

The Story
Kiski holds a head-to-head win over Altoona, which is keeping them in the last playoff spot for now. Despite head-to-head losses to Altoona and Connellsville, Hempfield is in the playoffs thanks to racking up enough Gardner Points to win a 3-way tiebreaker with Kiski and Altoona. Connellsville can not finish in the top 5, but has an outside shot at the #16 seed. Altoona is currently leading the race for the #16 seed.

Scenarios:

• Kiski clinches a playoff spot with a win over Latrobe or an Altoona loss
• Altoona clinches a playoff spot with a win over Connellsville and a Kiski loss

Northern Eight Conference

Conference Champion:  North Allegheny (6-0, 8-0)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Seneca Valley (5-1, 7-1), Central Catholic (4-2, 6-2), North Hills (4-2, 6-2), Butler (3-3, 4-4)

The Story
Everything is more or less decided in the Northern Eight Conference. All 5 playoff spots have been clinched (with Butler making the playoffs for the first time in ages). Pine-Richland has no more conference games and does not have enough wins to be in contention for the #16 seed.

Southeastern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Mt Lebanon (7-0, 7-1), Upper St Clair (6-1, 7-1), Woodland Hills (5-2, 6-2), Bethel Park (5-2, 5-3)

In the Running: Peters Twp (3-4, 4-4), Penn Hills (3-4, 3-5)

The Story
Once again arch-rivals Mt Lebanon and Upper St Clair meet on the last week of the season to determine the conference champion. Peters Twp has the edge on Penn Hills for the last playoff spot based on a head-to-head victory.

Scenarios:

• The winner of Mt Lebanon-Upper St Clair wins the Conference Championship
• Peters Twp clinches a playoff spot with a win over Canon-McMillan
• Penn Hills clinches a playoff spot with a win over Woodland Hills and a Peters Twp loss

The Battle For 16th

Per WPIAL rules, only the "best seven" section games count towards determining playoff positioning for the #16 seed. Gardner Points is the next tiebreaker. Gardner Points are calculated by awarding 10 points for each win by the teams that the team in question beat. For example, Altoona beat Norwin (1 win), Hempfield (4 wins), and Latrobe (1 win) giving them 60 Gardner Points.

Current Leader: Altoona (3-4, 3-5, 60 GP)

In the Running: Penn Hills (3-4, 3-5, 30 GP),  Connellsville (2-5, 2-6, 50 GP)

Others: Kiski Area (3-4, 3-5, 60 GP), Peters Twp (3-4, 4-4, 50 GP)

The Story
The 16th seed will either come from the Foothills or Southeastern Conference. In both conferences, the 5th place team must be decided before the battle for the 16 seed can be determined. Kiski and Peters Twp have the inside tracks on the respective #5 spots, both having "win and in" scenarios. Both Altoona and Penn Hills need a win along with the teams ahead of them to lose in order to finish 5th. Penn Hills can earn the #16 seed with a win over Woodland Hills and a loss by Altoona. Connellsville can move into front-runner status with a head-to-head win over Altoona and a loss by Penn Hills.

AAA

11 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 5 teams from each conference make the playoffs plus the 6th place team with the best conference record

Big Nine Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: West Mifflin (7-0, 8-0), Thomas Jefferson (7-0, 8-0), Elizabeth Forward (5-3, 5-3), Ringgold (4-3, 4-4),

In the Running: Trinity (4-3, 4-4),  Belle Vernon (3-4, 3-5)

The Story
Once again West Mifflin and TJ meet in the final week of the season with the Conference Championship on the line. They are the only two remaining undefeated teams in AAA, so you have to figure the #1 seed is at stake. Belle Vernon needs to beat Albert Gallatin (who hold the WPIAL-leading 17-game losing streak) and a Trinity loss to Ringgold to finish 5th as Belle Vernon holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. The 6th place team (Belle Vernon or Trinity) will be in the running for the #16 seed.

Scenarios:

• Trinity clinches a playoff spot with a win over Ringgold or a Belle Vernon loss
• Belle Vernon clinches a playoff spot with a win over Albert Gallatin and a Trinity loss

Greater Allegheny Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Mars (6-1, 7-1), Hampton (6-1, 7-1), Franklin Regional (5-2, 6-2), Knoch (5-2, 6-2)

In the Running: Hollidaysburg (3-4, 3-5), Highlands (3-4, 4-4), Indiana (2-5, 2-6)

The Story
Mars and Hampton meet with the Conference Championship on the line. Hollidaysburg holds the edge for the 5th place spot with a head-to-head win over Highlands, but Indiana could force a 3-way tie by beating Hollidaysburg and Highlands losing to Knoch. The 6th place team will be in the running for the #16 seed.

Scenarios:

• Hollidaysburg clinches a playoff spot with a win over Indiana loss
• If Hollidaysburg loses to Indiana by less than 4 points Highlands must lose to Knoch by at least 6 more points than Hollidaysburg loses by for Hollidaysburg to win the 3-way tie for 5th.
• Highlands clinches a playoff spot with a win over Knoch and a Hollidaysburg loss
• If Highlands loses to Knoch by less than 7 points and Indiana beats Hollidaysburg, Highlands wins the 3-way tie for 5th.
• If Highlands loses to Knoch by 7-9 points, Hollidaysburg must lose by at least 5 fewer points than Highlands loses by in order for Highlands to win the 3-way tie for 5th.
• Indiana clinches a playoff spot with a win over Hollidaysburg by 10 or more points and a Highlands loss by 10 or more points.

Parkway Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Central Valley (7-1, 7-1), West Allegheny (6-1, 7-1), Montour (6-1, 7-1)

In the Running: Ambridge (3-4, 3-5), Hopewell (3-4, 3-5), New Castle (3-4, 4-4), Blackhawk (2-5, 2-6)

The Story
West Allegheny threw a wrench into the standings with a 5-3 upset victory over Montour last week, forcing a 3-way tie atop the standings. Central Valley now has the inside track to the Conference Championship with their 69 WPIAL Tiebreaker points (West A 33, Montour 44). The middle of the pack is a mess, with 4 teams vying for the last 2 playoff spots. Blackhawk has rebounded from early season struggles to come within a win of making the playoffs. The four teams in the running all play each other this week, but the scenarios are not straightforward.

Scenarios:

• Hopewell clinches a playoff spot with a win over New Castle or an Ambridge loss
• New Castle clinches a playoff spot with a win over Hopewell
• Ambridge clinches a playoff spot with a win over Blackhawk
• Blackhawk clinches a playoff spot with a win over Ambridge by at least 6 points and a New Castle loss

Battle for 16th

Current Leader: Belle Vernon (3-4, 3-5, 60 GP)

In the Running: Highlands (3-4, 4-4, 40 GP), New Castle (3-4, 4-4, 40 GP), Indiana (2-5, 2-6, 20 GP)

Others: Trinity (4-3, 4-4, 70 GP), Hopewell (3-4, 3-5, 60 GP), Ambridge (3-4, 3-5, 50 GP), Hollidaysburg (3-4, 3-5, 50 GP)

The Story
Belle Vernon has the inside track here with the easiest Week 9 game of any of the teams in the running. If Belle Vernon manages to finish 5th in the Big Nine, Trinity will still have the easiest path to the #16 seed with their 4 wins on the books.

AA

14 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 4 from each conference make playoffs

Allegheny Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Freeport (6-1, 6-2), Burrell (6-1, 7-1), Valley (5-2, 6-2)

In the Running: Shady Side Academy (5-2, 5-3), Kittanning (4-3, 4-4)

The Story
Freeport has a head-to-head victory over Burrell and can win the Conference Championship at home. The drop down to AA has been beneficial for the Valley Vikings, who brought a 22-game losing streak into this season and clinched a playoff spot thanks to a victory over Kittanning last week. Valley would win a 3-way tie with Shady Side Academy and Kittanning if it came to that. Shady Side Academy and Kittanning meet in a Casket Match.

Scenarios:

• Freeport can clinch the Conference Championship a win over Summit Academy
• Burrell clinches the Conference Championship with a win over Deer Lakes and a Freeport loss

Casket Match

Shady Side Academy vs Kittanning 

Century Conference

Conference Champion: South Fayette (7-0. 8-0)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Seton-La Salle (6-1, 7-1), South Allegheny (6-1, 7-1), Steel Valley (4-3, 4-4)

The Story
Everything is wrapped up in the Century Conference. South Allegheny can force a 3-way tie for the Conference Championship with a win over South Fayette, but South Fayette would still win the 3-way tiebreaker based on WPIAL tiebreaker points. Steel Valley locked up the last playoff spot with South Park's loss last week.

Interstate Conference

Conference Champion: Washington (7-0, 8-0)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Jeanette (7-1, 8-1), Mt Pleasant (6-2, 6-2), GCC (5-3, 6-3)

The Story
Washington has had the conference championship locked up since their wins over Jeanette and Mt Pleasant. GCC eeked out a 2-point win over Yough last week to clinch the last playoff spot. Jeanette blocked an extra point in the second half to beat rival GCC 7-6 on Thursday night so the order of finish at the top is set: Washington, Jeanette, Mt Pleasant, GCC.

Midwestern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Beaver (6-0, 8-0), Aliquippa (6-0, 8-0), Beaver Falls (5-2, 6-2)

In the Running: Mohawk (2-4, 2-6), Freedom (2-4, 3-5), New Brighton (2-4, 2-6)

The Story
The Mighty Quips and Beaver face off for the Conference Championship at The Pit. Aliquippa is the top-ranked AA team and has been absolutely dominating teams this year. Three perennial bottom-feeders from the Midwestern Conference are battling it out for the last playoff spot. Mohawk has the inside track thanks to their head-to-head win over Freedom in the first week of the season, but must beat New Brighton this week. New Brighton's win over Riverside gave them a chance this week to make the playoffs with a win over Mohawk and a Freedom loss. The good news for whoever gets the last playoff spot is that since Aliquippa is the likely #1 seed in the AA bracket, the 4th place team here will most likely be the #15 seed.

Scenarios:

• The winner of Aliquippa-Beaver wins the Conference Championship
• Mohawk clinches a playoff spot with a win over New Brighton
• Freedom clinches a playoff spot with a win over Riverside and a Mohawk loss
• New Brighton clinches a playoff spot with a win over Mohawk and a Freedom loss

A

12 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 4 from each conference make playoffs

Big Seven Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Rochester (7-0, 8-0), Neshannock (6-1, 7-1), Sto-Rox (6-1, 7-1), Union (5-2, 6-2)

The Story
The four playoff spots in the Big Seven Conference are wrapped up, but the Conference Championship has yet to be decided. The top four teams face off this week, as Rochester plays Sto-Rox and Neshannock plays Union. Rochester has the inside track to the title and just needs to beat Sto-Rox to earn the crown. Sto-Rox can win the Conference Championship outright with a win and a Neshannock loss. Neshannock can not win the conference title due to tiebreaker points, but in the event of a 3-way tie (which would happen if Sto-Rox and Neshannock win), Sto-Rox would win the Conference Championship and Rochester would finish second based on a head-to-head win over Neshannock.

Scenarios:

• If Rochester and Neshannock win, the order of finish will be Rochester, Neshannock, Sto-Rox, Union
• If Rochester and Union win, the order of finish will be Rochester, Sto-Rox, Union, Neshannock
• If Sto-Rox and Neshannock win, the order of finish will be Sto-Rox, Rochester, Neshannock, Union
• If Sto-Rox and Union win, the order of finish will be Sto-Rox, Rochester, Union, Neshannock

Black Hills Conference

Conference Champion: Clairton (8-0, 8-0)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Monessen (7-1, 7-1), Brentwood (5-3, 5-3), Bishop Canevin (5-3, 5-3)

Imani Christian is currently 6-2 but is ineligible for the playoffs

The Story
The four playoff spots are locked up here, and Clairton has clinched the conference title. Imani Christian, in their first year of WPIAL competition, is ineligible for the playoffs but has put together a surprisingly solid season, including a win over Brentwood. The Saints are the last hurdle standing between the Clairton Bears and another undefeated season, and if any team in the conference has the athletes to run with the Bears, it might just be the Saints.

Eastern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: North Catholic (6-1, 6-2), Springdale (5-2, 5-3), Apollo-Ridge (5-2, 5-3)

In the Running: Northgate (5-2, 5-3), Avonworth (4-3, 4-4)

The Story
After looking like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference early in the season, Northgate has dropped 2 in a row to Apollo-Ridge and Springdale and now find themselves in a casket match game with Avonworth. Avonworth dropped a game to Wilkinsburg last week, which put them behind the 8-ball but they can still get in with a win over rival Northgate. North Catholic has the inside track to the Conference Championship, needing just a win over last place Leechburg to secure the conference crown. Springdale has head-to-head wins over Apollo-Ridge and Northgate will finish second in the conference with a win.

Scenarios:

• North Catholic clinches the Conference Championship with a win over Leechburg or a Northgate loss

Casket Match

Northgate vs Avonworth

Tri-County South Conference

Conference Champion: Beth-Center (7-1, 7-1)

Clinched Playoff Spot: no others

In the Running: Frazier (5-2, 6-2), Jefferson-Morgan (5-2, 6-2), Carmichaels (5-2, 6-2), Avella (4-3, 5-3)

The Story
The feel-good story of the year, the Avella Eagles, were on the verge of clinching a playoff spot, but have dropped 3 in a row and now have an uphill battle to make the playoffs. Jefferson-Morgan has the inside track to the second spot with head-to-head wins over Frazier and Carmichaels.

Scenarios:

• If Jefferson-Morgan beats Geibel; Jefferson-Morgan, Carmichaels, and Frazier make the playoffs
• Carmichaels clinches a playoff spot with a win over West Greene
• Frazier clinches a playoff spot with a win over Mapletown
• Avella clinches a playoff spot with a win over Bentworth, a loss by Jefferson-Morgan, and wins by Carmichaels and Frazier
• If Jefferson-Morgan. Carmichaels, and Frazier lose and Avella wins all 4 teams will be 5-3 and Avella would miss the playoffs due to head-to-head tiebreakers.
• If there is a 3-way tie between Jefferson-Morgan, Carmichaels, and Avella: Jefferson-Morgan and Carmichaels would make the playoffs due to Gardner Points.
• If there is a 3-way tie between Jefferson-Morgan, Frazier, and Avella: Jefferson-Morgan and Frazier make the playoffs due to Gardner Points. 

The Cold War Begins: Steelers Win First AFC North Game

 24

 17

The game starts with the Bengals trying to impersonate the Pirates and have their fans be excited by fireworks.

Great exchange between my wife and I before the game as NBC shows stock footage of the Cincinnati skyline.
Wife: "What's with all these bridges?"
Me: "Cincinnati is the Queen City of the Ohio."
Wife: "Is that like being the Mayor of Shit Village?"

My wife is awesome.

CCR takes the opening kickoff back to the 40. Two WR screens move us across midfield. Ben keeps things rolling with a big 3rd down pass to Brown to get us into field goal range. The drive stalls out when Wallace drops a 3rd down pass that hits him right in the hands. Gotta make those catches if you want the big bucks, Mike.

The kickin' Canuck nails it.

3-0

Law Firm gashes the Steelers on first down, then Dalton converts a 3rd down on an out-route. Law Firm blows through arm tackles to convert another 3rd down and move the Bengals int field goal range. Marvin Lewis holds nothing back and opts to go for it on 4th and 1 at the 20 and Law Firm converts. The Steelers can't stop the Law Firm and he picks up another first down on 3rd and short inside the 5. Too many arm tackles on defense. The Bengals pound it in. 

3-7

Wallace starts the next drive right were he left off, dropping a ball that hits him right in the hands. Thankfully, we have Ben Roethlisberger. He does his Ben thing and slides away from two defenders and finds Cotch downfield to convert a 3rd down. Two passes to Heath get us into 3rd and 1.

Second Quarter

Dwyer moves the chains. A hold puts us back in long yardage, but AB bails us out on 2nd down with a big catch and run to move the sticks. Brown put a sick cut-back move on the corner to turn it back and get to the sideline. All Antonio Brown does is make big plays. 

Haley tries some trickeration with a throwback to AB and he throws it downfield to a wide open Baron Batch who lets the ball bounce off his fingertips. Ugh. Great play-call, would have been an easy touchdown if Batch had caught it. Man. Wallace holds on to one to move the chains but Ben gets greedy and tries to go down the seam to Heath in double coverage, but the safety intercepts it in the end zone.

As it goes to commercial, my wife tells me "I think you need that pumpkin vomit picture."

She's on fire tonight, even if the Steelers aren't.

Thankfully, the Bengals go 3-and-out when a 3rd down pass goes right through Gresham's hands.

A penalty on the punt sets us back but on the first play Ben is sacked and fumbles. Bengals take over inside the 10. Puke.

Dalton hits Green on a slant for the quick score.

3-14

Dwyer puts the team on his back and single-handedly carries us out past midfield. AB picks up another first down on an end-around to get us inside the 40. We throw for the first time on the drive and it's a WR screen to AB to get us into 3rd and medium. Ben takes a shot deep for Wallace but it's dropped again. Yikes. After review, it looks like Hall got a piece of the ball, but Wallace still should've had it. Suisham connects from 47.

6-14

The Bengals get into their 2-minute offense and hit Gresham on a TE screen that gets them across midfield, but the good ol' Bungles strike back when the ball slips out of Dalton's hand and Woodley comes down with the interception.

HUGE. HUGE. HUGE. Turnover.

Ben hits Brown on an out-route for another first down to get us into the red zone. Sanders gets us into 2nd and short. Dwyer moves the sticks inside the 10. On second down, Ben steps up in the pocket and guns one to Heath across the middle for a HUGE touchdown with a corner hanging all over him.

HEEEEEEEATH

Tomlin opts to go for 2 and in a bizarre turn of events the refs don't let Ben take a timeout after the Bengals substitute, so Ben runs the play and sends Heath out wide and throws a beautiful fade pass to tie the game.

HEEEEEEEEEATH

14-14

Cincy kneels it out to go to the half. Somehow, even though we played probably our worst half of the season, the game is tied.

Halftime

Hidden stat of the first half - Antonio Brown had 5 catches and 1 carry. Of his 6 touches, 5 of them moved the chains and picked up first downs. 

All Antonio Brown Does Is Make Big Plays.

Third Quarter

The Bengals pick up right where they left off - converting 3rd downs and moving the ball. Dalton takes a shot deep for Green on 3rd down but Keenan Lewis is there playing centerfield to knock the ball away. Not sure why a corner is playing centerfield in the defense, but it worked. Ted Nugent makes a 48-yarder.

14-17

Ben goes right back to gunslinging and hits AB across the middle off play-action to move us into Bengals territory. Wallace gets a first down on an end-around but Ben gets sacked setting us back. Wallace gets some of it back on a WR screen but the Steelers can't convert on 3rd down. Suisham ties it up.

17-17

The Steelers force a 3rd and long and Dalton gets flushed from the pocket. Ziggy gets a paw up and makes his second deflection of the game. Big stand by the defense.

The offense doesn't do anything with it and we punt for the first time in the game.

The defense puts the clamps on and Woodley almost gets a sack and forces a throw-away on 3rd down.

The Steelers get stuck in 3rd and 8, but Ben has time and zings one to AB over the middle to move the chains. First and 2nd down continue to be a struggle, but Ben steps up in the pocket and hits Sanders streaking across the middle who takes it all the way down to the 14.

Fourth Quarter

Creedance Chris Rainey takes one straight up the gut and gashes the Bengals defense for the touchdown.

Have You Ever Seen the Rainey?

Who'll Stop The Rainey?

24-17

The Bengals pick up a first down then the defense locks it down and forces a punt.

Todd Haley gives Bruce Arians the finger and goes run-run-run with Dwyer gashing the Bengals up the middle on 3rd and 5. Near midfield, Ben tries to go deep to Brown on 3rd down but throws it too close to the sideline and Brown can't get his feet in. Punt.

Ike redeems himself for the touchdown earlier and knocks a ball away from Green on 3rd down. 

On the 2nd play, Ben goes play-action and hits Heath wide open down the seam, rumbling into Bengals territory down to the 36. Ben gets sacked on 2nd down, then Wallace drops a slant pass on 3rd down. Ben pooches one inside the 15 on 4th  down. Nice call.

Inexplicably, the Bengals go run-run-pass and AJ Green almost makes an incredible catch, but he can't hang on and Ben gets the ball back with 4 minutes to go.

AB goes nowhere on an end-around, then Ben goes play-action and hits Wallace who makes a diving catch for the first down. Marvin challenges the catch, but there isn't enough evidence to overturn it. First down Steelers. Dwyer busts one up the middle for another first down, taking it across midfield. The Bengals use their last timeout with 2:30 to go. Dwyer gets another call and the clock winds to 2.

Two Minute Warning

Dwyer takes it inside the 40 to set up 3rd and 6. Dwyer takes it right up the middle and gashes the Bengals, taking it all the way down inside the 10 before getting caught from behind.

You could tell Dwyer wanted his first NFL TD so bad there, but the win is just as sweet.

Victory Formation

Game.

Players of the Game

Offensive Game Ball: Antonio Brown

Defensive Game Ball: LaMarr Woodley

Honorable Mentions:

Jonathan Dwyer

Ike Taylor

Keenan Lewis

Ben Roethlisberger

Heath Miller

Chris Rainey

Doug Legursky

Willie Colon

Shaun Suisham

Final Thoughts

• You've heard me talk a lot about the Steelers 5-13 record under Tomlin in road games outside of Eastern Time, but how about their 21-8 record in road games IN Eastern Time? That's impressive.
• Antonio Brown had 9 touches (7 catches, 2 carries) and picked up 7 first downs (6 on catches, 1 on an end-around). All he does is make big plays.
• Woodley's interception was the game-changer. Bengals driving with under 2 minutes to go with an 8-point lead, and we're able to turn it around into a tie game at halftime. 
• From @btsteelcurtain - the Bengals had 80 yards of offense on their first drive of the game, and just 95 the entire rest of the game.
• First career touchdown for Chris Rainey. Great to see him getting more involved in the offense. Great blocking by the line to open up that hole. This was a fantastic job by Haley to adjust - the Bengals were backing off and playing Cover-2 when Rainey was in to watch against trickery, so we just ran it right at them.
• Um...Mike Wallace, can we talk a minute? 4 drops? Yeah, that's not going to get you Fitz money. That might not even get you what you're making this year. Gotta hang on to the ball, bro.
• The go-ahead touchdown at the beginning of the 4th quarter gives Ben his 28th career Game Winning Drive. According to Pro Football Reference's method of counting, Ben's 28 Game Winning Drives rank 16th all time. That's pretty darn good.
• Heath Miller is having a Pro Bowl season. For real. 
• I absolutely loved the trick play call with AB throwing the ball. It was great design and execution, Batch just dropped the ball. 
• Props to Keenan Lewis. He had the best game of his career. He was aggressive in pass defense and had the biggest breakup of the game when he got deep to take a touchdown away from AJ Green. 
• I was pulling for Daniel Hrapmann in the preseason, but Shaun Suisham has been superb this season. He nailed kicks of 42, 47 and 42 and is 5-for-5 from 40-49 this season after being only 6-for-11 from that distance last year.

Gameday: Cincinnati Bengals

8:15pm

Ohio State Penitentiary

TV: NBC

What to Watch For

1. Injury Report

There's no getting around it, the Steelers are a banged up team. Mendenhall, Redman, Gilbert, Pouncey, and Polamalu are all likely out for the game. And that's just the starters. Jonathan Dwyer and Mike Adams figure to make the first starts of their careers. The Steelers called OL John Malecki up from the practice squad, and he will likely get a helmet as a reserve lineman. Hopefully the guys up front can stay healthy, as 7th round pick Kelvin Beachum figures to be the top backup on the line.

2. Ike Taylor vs AJ Green

This might be the single biggest matchup of the night. Ike has struggled with penalties the last few weeks, and AJ Green might be the best receiver he faces all season. Green is a legit talent in the mold of Calvin Johnson with elite size, speed, and high-pointing ability. Ike made a name for himself shutting down another Bengals receiver, and will have to have his best game of the season against Green this week.

3. Misdirection

From the limited times I've seen the Bengals this year, they run a lot of misdirection plays - especially end-arounds to their WRs on 3rd and medium yardage. They do have BenJarvis Green-Ellis in the backfield who is a solid running back but he isn't an explosive runner. They try to get big plays in the running game by getting the ball into the hands of their WRs on misdirection runs. The Steelers will need to maintain their backside discipline and not get caught crashing down the line.

4. Pressure, Pressure, Pressure

Pressure creates turnovers, and pressure is something the Steelers haven't had a whole lot of this season. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are both slated to start and Andy Dalton has been shaky so far this season. You would think this is an ideal scenario for the Steelers, and we can only hope that Harrison and Woodley are healthy enough to get the job done. Jason Worlids is actually leading the AFC North in sacks with 3 this season, but he hasn't been able to get consistent pressure when he has played. On the line, Keisel and Hood have not played up to standard, but Cam Heyward isn't getting nearly enough playing time to make a difference. Against Tennessee, Keisel and Hood got 60 snaps each while Heyward only played 16.

5. Just. Win.

At this point, it doesn't really matter who steps up for the Steelers, we just need someone to do it. We are sitting at 2-3 and had chances to win each of the 3 games that we didn't. You can place blame on whoever you would like for each of the 3 losses, but the fact of the matter is that we just didn't make the plays necessary to come out victorious. Someone has to step up and make big plays down the stretch, both on offense and defense, to bring home the victory. Here we go.

WPIAL Week 8 Playoff Scenarios

With two weeks left in the regular season, 34 of 64 playoff spots have been clinched and one team has already secured a Conference Championship. Somewhat surprisingly, that team is the Washington Prexies in the AA Interstate Conference. With only one conference game remaining, the worst Washington can finish is 7-1 in conference play which would put them in a tie with Jeanette, who they beat head-to-head. Congratulations to the Prexies on winning the Interstate Conference crown. Here's a look at the other playoff races as we head down to the wire.

AAAA

8 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 5 teams from each conference make the playoffs plus the 6th place team with the best conference record

Foothills Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Gateway (6-0, 6-1), Penn-Trafford (6-0, 6-1)

In the Running: McKeesport (4-2, 4-3), Kiski Area (3-3, 3-4),  Hempfield (3-3, 3-4), Altoona (3-4, 3-4), Connellsville (2-4, 2-5)

Scenarios:

• The winner of the Gateway vs Penn-Trafford game wins the Conference Championship
• McKeesport clinches a playoff spot with a win over Kiski

Northern Eight Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: North Allegheny (5-0, 7-0), Seneca Valley (5-1, 6-1), Central Catholic (4-2, 5-2)

In the Running: North Hills (3-2, 5-2), Butler (2-3, 3-4), Pine-Richland (2-4, 3-4)

Scenarios:

• North Allegheny clinches the Conference Championship with a win over Shaler
• North Hills clinches a playoff spot with a win over Pine-Richland
• Butler clinches a playoff spot with a win over Fox Chapel

Southeastern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Upper St Clair (5-1, 6-1), Mt Lebanon (6-0, 6-1), Bethel Park (5-2, 5-2)

In the Running: Woodland Hills (4-2, 5-2), Peters Twp (3-3, 4-3), Penn Hills (3-3, 3-4)

Scenarios:

• Mt. Lebanon clinches the Conference Championship with a win over Penn Hills and an Upper St Clair loss
• Woodland Hills clinches a playoff spot with a win over Peters Twp and a Penn Hills loss
• Peters Twp clinches a playoff spot with a win over Woodland Hills and a Penn Hills loss

AAA

8 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 5 teams from each conference make the playoffs plus the 6th place team with the best conference record

Big Nine Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: West Mifflin (6-0, 7-0), Thomas Jefferson (6-0, 7-0)

In the Running: Ringgold (4-3, 4-3), Trinity (4-2, 4-3), Elizabeth Forward (4-3, 4-3), Belle Vernon (2-4, 2-5)

Scenarios:

• Trinity clinches a playoff spot with a win over West Mifflin or a Belle Vernon loss
• Elizabeth Forward clinches a playoff spot with a win over Albert Gallatin or with a Trinity win or with a Belle Vernon loss
• Ringgold plays a non-conference game but can clinch a playoff spot if Trinity wins or Belle Vernon loses

Greater Allegheny Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Mars (5-1, 6-1), Franklin Regional (5-1, 6-1), Hampton (5-1, 6-1)

In the Running: Knoch (4-2, 5-2), Hollidaysburg (3-3, 3-4), Highlands (3-4, 3-4), Indiana (2-4, 2-5)

Scenarios:

• Franklin Regional can clinch the Conference Championship with a win over Hampton and a Mars loss
• Knoch clinches a playoff spot with a win over Indiana
• Hollidaysburg clinches a playoff spot with a win over Mars and an Indiana loss

Parkway Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Montour (6-0, 7-0), Central Valley (6-1, 6-1), West Allegheny (5-1, 6-1)

In the Running: Ambridge (3-3, 3-4), Hopewell (3-4, 3-4), New Castle (2-4, 3-4)

Scenarios:

• Ambridge clinches a playoff spot with a win over Central Valley and a New Castle loss

AA

10 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 4 from each conference make playoffs

Allegheny Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Freeport (6-1, 6-1)

In the Running: Burrell (5-1, 6-1), Shady Side Academy (4-2, 4-3), Valley (4-2, 5-2), Kittanning (4-2, 5-3)

Scenarios:

• Freeport plays a non-conference game but can clinch the Conference Championship with losses by Burrell and Valley
• Burrell clinches a playoff spot with a win over East Allegheny
• Shady Side Academy clinches a playoff spot with a win over Summit Academy and a Valley loss
• Kittanning clinches a playoff spot with a win over Valley
• Valley clinches a playoff spot with a win over Kittanning and a Shady Side Academy loss

Century Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: South Fayette (6-0, 7-0), Seton-La Salle (6-1, 6-1), South Allegheny (5-1, 6-1)

In the Running: Steel Valley (4-2, 4-3), South Park (3-3, 3-4)

Scenarios:

• South Fayette clinches the Conference Championship with a win over South Park and a South Allegheny loss
• Steel Valley clinches a playoff spot with a win over South Allegheny or a South Park loss

Interstate Conference

Conference Champion: Washington (7-0, 7-0)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Jeanette (5-1, 6-1), Mt Pleasant (5-2, 5-2)

In the Running: GCC (4-2, 5-2), Yough (3-3, 3-4)

Scenarios:

• GCC clinches a playoff spot with a win over Yough

Midwestern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Beaver (5-0, 7-0), Aliquippa (5-0, 7-0), Beaver Falls (5-1, 6-1)

In the Running: Mohawk (2-4, 2-5), Freedom (2-4, 2-5)

Scenarios:

• No clinching scenarios because Mohawk and Freedom both play non-conference games

A

8 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 4 from each conference make playoffs

Big Seven Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Rochester (6-0, 7-0), Neshannock (6-1, 6-1)

In the Running: Sto-Rox (5-1, 6-1), Union (4-2, 5-2), Laurel (3-3, 4-3)

Scenarios:

• Rochester clinches the Conference Championship with a win over OLSH and a Sto-Rox loss
• Sto-Rox clinches a playoff spot with a win over Laurel
• Union clinches a playoff spot with a win over South Side Beaver or a Laurel loss

Black Hills Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Clairton (7-0, 7-0), Monessen (6-1, 6-1), Bishop Canevin (5-2, 5-2)

In the Running:  Brentwood (4-3, 4-3), Fort Cherry (3-4, 3-4), Chartiers-Houston (3-4, 3-4)
Imani Christian is currently 5-2 but is ineligible for the playoffs

Scenarios:

• Clairton clinches the Conference Championship with a win over Serra Catholic
• Brentwood clinches a playoff spot with a win over Bishop Canevin or with losses by Fort Cherry and Chartiers-Houston

Eastern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: North Catholic (6-1, 6-1)

In the Running: Northgate (5-1, 5-2), Springdale (4-2, 4-3), Apollo-Ridge (4-2, 4-3), Avonworth (4-2, 4-3)

Scenarios:

• Northgate clinches a playoff spot with a win over Springdale

Tri-County South Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Beth-Center (6-1, 6-1)

In the Running: Frazier (5-2, 5-2), Avella (4-2, 5-2), Jefferson-Morgan (4-2, 5-2), Carmichaels (4-2, 5-2)

Scenarios:

• Beth-Center clinches the Conference Championship with a win over Avella

Ta'amu Suspended Two Games

How do you drown your sorrows after the Steelers lose? Most fans go the route of Iron City and Kielbasa, but Steelers 4th round pick Alameda Ta'amu took a different route on Saturday night. After a night of heavy drinking on the South Side, Ta'amu made the terrible decision to get behind the wheel of a car, and proceeded to rack up 5 felonies, 5 misdemeanors, and 5 summary charges including resisting arrest, fleeing the scene, hitting parked cars, and attempting to hit a police officer.

First things first, I have zero tolerance for these kind of actions.

The Steelers organization responded by suspending Ta'amu for two games, which some feel is letting him off the hook for trying to run down police officers with his car.

On the surface, this may be true, but the two-game suspension handed down does serve a purpose. First, Ta'amu's court date is set for October 23, which is a week and a half before he would be eligible to return from this suspension. If Ta'amu is given jail time, the Steelers will know that well before the suspension ends and will have a chance to plan accordingly. Secondly, this gives the NFL time to investigate the incident and hand down their own suspension on top of the one the team issued, should Goddell decide to flex his authority once again. The one thing the Steelers did accomplish by suspending Ta'amu themselves was to take ownership of the situation and not leave their roster at the mercy of the courts or Goddell. The Steelers were proactive in this case and in doing so allowed the Justice system to hand down their penalties and Ta'amu to have his due process in court.

I fully expect further action with regards to Ta'amu, whether that is the Steelers further suspending him with regards to the decision by the court, or the NFL handing down some kind of suspension. One other peripheral benefit of the two game suspension is that it puts the Steelers decision timeline in the window for David DeCastro's return from Injured Reserve. If the Steelers had flat out cut Ta'amu, they would have had to fill his roster spot. With the suspension, the Steelers are given a roster exemption where they still retain their contractual rights but do not have to carry Ta'amu on their 53-man roster. When Ta'amu is eligible to return from suspension, the Steelers will have a better idea of where DeCastro is in his recovery.

Analyzing Tomlin's Field Goal Decision

In every NFL game, there are individual plays that often determine victory and defeat. In the Steelers loss to the Titans, no play played a bigger role than Mike Tomlin's choice to try a field goal on 4th and 7 from the 36. But was it the right call?

Looking at the last drive of the Fourth Quarter through the scope of Advanced NFL Stats' Win Probability, the Steelers had a 46% probability of winning when they took over with 4:25 to play and the game tied. As they moved down the field, their probability of winning the game increased significantly, all the way up to 84% after Ben hit Heath with 1:54 to play to get the ball to the Tennessee 35. After the failed run on 2nd down, the Win Probability dropped to 67% then down to 49% after the incompletion on third down.

So there we were, with the biggest coaching decision of the game. Tomlin even used a time out to think it over some more. Looking the Advanced NFL Stats 4th Down Metric, here's how the probabilities look:

Just looking at Win Probabilities, punting would have been a status quo choice and kept the Steelers win probability at 49%. Objectively, you have to think that the worst case scenario (aside from a blocked punt) is that Tennessee has to start at their own 20 after a touchback and has to go 55 yards instead of 30. The other two options present a much wider gap in Win Probability. A successful 4th down attempt would give the Steelers a 92% chance of winning the game, while a failed attempt would have left them with only a 37% chance of winning. According to this metric, the chance of success on 4th and 7 is only 42%, which means a 54-yard field goal with a 48% chance of success is the marginally "safer" choice. However, when you look at the gap in win probability, the story changes. A successful field goal yields basically the same Win Probability as a successful 4th down attempt, but a failed field goal attempt leaves you with only a 33% chance of winning. 

When all the factors are calculated, Tomlin did elect to go for the option with the highest overall Win Probability (61% for Field Goal Attempt to 60% for 4th Down Attempt), but also the one that came with the most risk. The Field Goal Attempt option had a 58% swing in Win Probability between success and failure while the 4th Down Attempt option had a 55% swing. There was no swing for punting, but as discussed, that was a status quo option at 49%. The one thing the formula doesn't take into account is the kicker and the defense in play - Suisham had never made a field goal over 52 yards and the Steelers defense hadn't exactly been airtight during the game. 

The truly puzzling thing about this decision is how it stacks up with Tomlin's historical end-game decisions. Last season against Baltimore, Tomlin made a mind-boggling coaching decision facing a 4th and 4 from the 29. The Ravens had only one timeout left, and rather than attempting a 46 yard field goal to go up by 7 or going for it, Tomlin took a delay of game and punted. As we know, Joe Flacco drove the Ravens 92 yards for the game-winning touchdown, which in the long run meant we had to go to Denver as a Wild Card rather than winning the division and getting a bye. This season, when faced with an even longer field goal and the game tied, Tomlin elected to go for the field goal? I know Suisham was having a bad year last year and had been kicking well this year, but on the whole, it's hard for me to understand this decision to try a 54-yard field goal. Tomlin took the risk to try the field goal, and in turn deserves the blame for the failure in strategy.

WPIAL Week 7 Playoff Scenarios

As we enter the last third of the WPIAL season, playoff races are heating up. There are some big games this week, headlined by two Quad-A showdowns between powerhouse teams - North Allegheny vs Central Catholic and Upper St Clair vs Bethel Park.

AAAA

6 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 5 teams from each conference make the playoffs plus the 6th place team with the best conference record

Foothills Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Gateway (5-0, 5-1), Penn-Trafford (5-0, 5-1)

In the Running: Kiski Area (3-2, 3-3), McKeesport (3-2, 3-3), Hempfield (3-3, 3-3), Connellsville (2-3, 2-4), Altoona (2-4, 2-4)

Scenarios:

• McKeesport clinches a playoff spot with a win over Connellsville
• Kiski Area clinches a playoff spot with a win over Penn-Trafford and a Connellsville loss
• Penn-Trafford clinches a home playoff game with a win over Kiski

Northern Eight Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: North Allegheny (4-0, 6-0), Seneca Valley (4-1, 5-1), Central Catholic (4-1, 5-1)

In the Running: North Hills (3-1, 5-1), Butler (2-3, 2-4)

Scenarios:

• North Hills clinches a playoff spot with a win over Seneca Valley
• North Allegheny clinches a home playoff game with a win over Central Catholic

Southeastern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Upper St Clair (5-0, 6-0)

In the Running: Mt Lebanon (5-0, 5-1), Bethel Park (4-2, 4-2), Woodland Hills (3-2, 4-2), Peters Twp (3-2, 4-2), Penn Hills (2-3, 2-4)

Scenarios:

• Mt Lebanon clinches a playoff spot with a win over Peters Twp
• Bethel Park clinches a playoff spot with a win over Upper St Clair
• Peters Twp clinches a playoff spot with a win over Mt Lebanon and a Penn Hills loss

AAA

6 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 5 teams from each conference make the playoffs plus the 6th place team with the best conference record

Big Nine Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: West Mifflin (6-0, 6-0), Thomas Jefferson (5-0, 6-0)

In the Running: Ringgold (4-2, 4-2), Trinity (3-2, 3-3), Elizabeth Forward (3-3, 3-3), Belle Vernon (2-3, 2-4)

Scenarios:

• Ringgold clinches a playoff spot with a win over Elizabeth Forward or with a Belle Vernon loss
• Elizabeth Forward clinches a playoff spot with a win over Ringgold and a Belle Vernon loss

Greater Allegheny Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Mars (5-0, 6-0), Franklin Regional (4-1, 5-1), Hampton (4-1, 5-1)

In the Running: Knoch (3-2, 4-2), Hollidaysburg (3-2, 3-3), Highlands (2-4, 2-4), Indiana (2-4, 2-4)

Scenarios: No clinching scenarios

Parkway Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Montour (5-0, 6-0)

In the Running: Central Valley (5-1, 5-1), West Allegheny (4-1, 5-1), Hopewell (3-3, 3-3), Ambridge (2-3, 2-4), New Castle (2-3, 3-3)

Scenarios:

• Central Valley clinches a playoff spot with a win over Hopewell
• West Allegheny clinches a playoff spot with a win over New Castle

AA

7 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 4 from each conference make playoffs

Allegheny Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: None

In the Running: Freeport (5-1, 5-1), Burrell (4-1, 5-1), Shady Side Academy (4-2, 4-2), Valley (3-2, 4-2), Kittanning (3-2, 3-3)

Scenarios:

• Freeport clinches a playoff spot with a win over East Allegheny and a Valley loss

Century Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: South Fayette (6-0, 6-0)

In the Running: Seton-La Salle (5-1, 5-1), South Allegheny (4-1, 5-1), Steel Valley (3-2, 3-3), South Park (3-2, 3-3)

Scenarios:

• Seton-La Salle clinches a playoff spot with a win over Quaker Valley and a South Park loss
• South Allegheny clinches a playoff spot with a win over Keystone Oaks and a South Park loss

Interstate Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Washington (6-0, 6-0), Jeanette (5-1, 5-1), Mt Pleasant (5-1, 5-1)

In the Running: GCC (3-2, 4-2), Yough (2-3, 2-4)

Scenarios: No clinching scenarios

Midwestern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Beaver (4-0, 6-0), Aliquippa (4-0, 6-0), Beaver Falls (4-1, 5-1)

In the Running: Mohawk (2-3, 2-4), Freedom (2-3, 2-4)

Scenarios:

• Mohawk clinches a playoff spot with a win over Beaver and a Freedom loss

A

3 of 16 playoff spots clinched

Top 4 from each conference make playoffs

Big Seven Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: None

In the Running: Rochester (5-0, 6-0), Neshannock (5-1, 5-1), Sto-Rox (4-1, 5-1), Union (3-2, 4-2), Laurel (3-2, 4-2)

Scenarios:

• Rochester clinches a playoff spot with a win over Laurel or a Union loss
• Neshannock clinches a playoff spot with a win over OLSH and a loss by Laurel or Union

Black Hills Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Clairton (6-0, 6-0), Bishop Canevin (5-1, 5-1)

In the Running: Monessen (5-1, 5-1), Brentwood (3-3, 3-3), Fort Cherry (2-4, 2-4), Chartiers-Houston (2-4, 2-4)

Note: Imani Christian is currently 5-1 but is ineligible for the playoffs

Scenarios:

• Monessen clinches a playoff spot with a win over Imani Christian

Eastern Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: None

In the Running: Northgate (5-0, 5-1), North Catholic (5-1, 5-1), Springdale (4-1, 4-2), Apollo-Ridge (3-2, 3-3), Avonworth (3-2, 3-3)

Scenarios:

• Northgate clinches a playoff spot with a win over Apollo-Ridge
• North Catholic clinches a playoff spot with a win over Wilkinsburg
• Springdale clinches a playoff spot with a win over Avonworth and an Apollo-Ridge loss

Tri-County South Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: Beth-Center (6-0, 6-0)

In the Running: Avella (4-1, 5-1), Jefferson-Morgan (4-2, 4-2), Frazier (4-2, 4-2), Carmichaels (3-2, 4-2)

Scenarios:

• Avella clinches a playoff spot with a win over Carmichaels