Friday, January 27, 2012

The Quest: First Rankings

As I detailed a few days ago, I have decided to embark on a quest to choose a new favorite college football team. I identified 14 different categories that will influence my decision and I whittled my list down to 34 teams, which I initially separated into 5 "Tiers."

I have decided to take a mathematical approach to the solution and give each of the 34 remaining schools a ranking between 0 and 10 in each of the 14 categories. After that, I will apply a multiplier based on my level of interest in that category. Since there are 8 levels of interest (Least, Very Low, Low, Average, Above Average, High, Very High, Most), I will value each of the 14 categories between 1 and 8 and multiply that by the 0-10 score that each team receives. 

Since there are 14 weeks in a college football season and 14 different categories for me to consider, I will create scales for generating the 1-10 ranking for each category then release periodic rankings to determine how they effect the overall standings. At the end of the 14 mathematical calculations, I'll have a final "BCS Standings" heading into the postseason, which will determine the eventual "National Champion" (or "New Team I will be a fan of"). Since I don't want to overly bore everyone with math, I'll give a brief description of how I decided each ranking as we go.

Academic Prestige
Level of Interest: High

Academic Prestige can be a difficult thing to measure from a statistical sense. Every institution of higher learning claims that they are one of the top research institutions in some field or another. Every school has their specialties, and it can be difficult to designate which ones are better than others. Thankfully, I don't have to do this. The US News and World Report does it for me. In 2010 about the time of the start of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, they released a set of school rankings in which the Top 50% of schools were ranked, schools in the 51st-75th percentile designated as "Tier 3" schools, and schools below that designated as "Tier 4." 

Taking these rankings, the Top 50% comprises approximately 135 schools. Therefore, since I am going to "rank" each school between 0 and 10 points, I will award points to schools thusly:

  • Schools in the Top 15 will receive the full 10 points.
  • Schools ranked 16th through 30th will receive 9 points.
  • Schools ranked 31st through 45th will receive 8 points.
  • Schools ranked 46th through 60th will receive 7 points.
  • Schools ranked 61st through 75th will receive 6 points.
  • Schools ranked 76th through 90th will receive 5 points.
  • Schools ranked 91st through 105th will receive 4 points.
  • Schools Ranked 106th through 120th will receive 3 points.
  • Schools Ranked over 121st will receive 2 points.
  • Schools in Tier 3 will receive 1 point.
  • Schools in Tier 4 will receive 0 points


Top Academic Schools
SchoolAcademic RankPoints
Stanford
4
10
Duke
10
10
Navy
19
9
Virginia
24
9
UCLA
24
9
USC
26
9
North Carolina
28
9
Wake Forest
28
9


Conference Prestige
Level of Interest: Above Average

Conference Prestige is a difficult aspect of College Football to measure. Just how "good" a given conference is in any given year can be a subjective matter. Just because the Big 10 goes 1-7 in bowl games where they play 5 SEC teams makes them less prestigious than the Mountain West who beats up on the MAC, Conference USA, and a mid-level Pac 10 team en route to an undefeated Bowl season is a debate for another day. Therefore, I have decided to exclude Bowl Record from my metric for measuring Conference Prestige. There are three factors that I have decided to consider:
1. Percentage of teams in the Final AP Poll. I chose the AP Poll because it is less subjective than the Coaches Poll, total joke Harris Poll, or BCS.
2. BCS Bids. Obviously this gives more weight to the power conferences, but let's be honest. I'm not going to throw my full fandom behind a team from the MAC. It's just not happening.
3. National Championships. This should be a pretty obvious portion of the calculation. Does your conference produce champions?

Due to the sheer weight of the data that I needed to collect for this, I decided to limit the scope of Conference Prestige to results over the last 5 seasons. Does this unfairly weight the SEC because they have won the last 5 BCS Championships? Probably, but it's also hard to argue that there is a more prestigious conference than the SEC right now.

The Math:
Component 1 - Teams in the Final AP Poll. The calculation here was pretty easy. Teams in the final AP Poll divided by number of teams in the conference. This gives a percentage. Multiply by 10 and round to the nearest whole number to get a 0-10 number.

Component 2 - BCS Bids. Since the most bids any conference can get is 2 bids, I awarded 5 points per BCS Bid in each of the last 5 years.

Component 3 - National Champions. Either you won it or you didn't. 10 points for a Champion, 0 for no champion.

Given these 3 components ranked on a 0-10 scale over the last 5 years gave me a total of 150 possible points that a conference could obtain. Since I want my final number to be on a 0-10 scale, I divided the total numbers by 15 to get the "score" for each conference.

SEC - 8.0
Big Ten - 4.5
Big XII - 3.6
Pac 12 - 3.3
ACC - 3.0
Big East - 2.5
Mtn West - 1.7
Independent - 0

The Rankings

Two categories under consideration doesn't give us much of a sample size. But like the AP Poll after the 2nd week of a college football season, we have to simply go with what we have and move forward until the body of work gives us more to base the rankings on. Therefore, with two categories in the books, here are the rankings:

1. Georgia - 82
2. Stanford - 76.5
3. Texas A&M - 76
4. Duke - 75
5t. Wisconsin - 70.5
5t. UCLA - 70.5
5t. USC - 70.5
8. Auburn - 70
9t. North Carolina - 69
9t. Virginia - 69
9t. Wake Forest - 69
12t. Ohio St - 64.5
12t. Washington - 64.5
12t. Penn St - 64.5
15. Alabama - 64
16t. Boston College - 63
16t. Georgia Tech - 63
18t. Iowa - 58.5
18t. Michigan St - 58.5
20t. South Carolina - 58
20t. Tennessee - 58
22. Navy - 54
23. LSU - 52
24t. Clemson - 51
24t. Virginia Tech - 51

Monday, January 23, 2012

Requiem for a Season: 2011 Steelers Coaches

What started as a frenetic end to the summer where a last-minute deal was reached on a collective bargaining agreement that enabled the 2012 NFL season to take place ended suddenly for Steelers fans on a cold Sunday night in Denver. Over the summer, we were told that the Steelers experience and depth would enable them to be successful in a season where there were no OTAs and an abbreviated training camp. As it was, the season started with us getting gashed on the ground by Baltimore and Houston, battling through injuries to our world class pass rushers, and ended with giving up 316 yards to Tim Tebow, of all people.

Head Coach

In his fifth season with the team, Mike Tomlin led the Steelers to another 12-4 record and playoff berth.  Coach Tomlin actually got better at throwing the challenge flag this year, but his clock management skills left something to be desired. He wasn't afraid to go for the win in situations where the Steelers faced a 3rd down with under 2 minutes to go and a first down would end the game. The problem with that was the play-calling (which we'll get to in a minute), which on more than one occasion resulted in an incomplete pass that gave the other team the ball back with a chance to win the game. Even though the Steelers were 5-3 on the road, they struggled in their 5 victories, beating a bad Indianapolis team by only 3, and mediocre Kansas City and Cleveland teams by 13-9 marks. On the whole, it was a decent season for Tomlin but there were times when the team looked totally unprepared for their opponents. The opener in Baltimore and the playoff game in Denver are two examples that come to mind.

Offensive Coordinator

For as bad as Bruce Arians was in his play-calling over the last five years, he did make some marginal improvements. Gone (finally!) were the 3rd and 1 pass calls. He did still utilize the empty set a bit much for our liking. While we're on the subject, let's set the record straight. We have no problem with passing. It's the way of the league right now. But if you look at the prolific offenses around the league, they're not running crazy 5-WR sets. New England runs a 2-TE offense. New Orleans and Green Bay both utilize their tight ends. But Arians, for better or worse, falls in love with spreading teams out and giving Ben limited protection. If you're going to go 5-wide, you have to throw a quick pass so your quarterback doesn't get killed, but Arians seems to love having receivers go 15 yards downfield before making a break, which means Ben has to stand in the pocket longer.

But now, Arians is gone and the Steelers will begin the search for a new offensive coordinator. We'll have more on this as the week goes on.

Defensive Coordinator

Once again, Dick LeBeau's unit finished as one of the top defenses in the league. The team struggled to defend the run early in the season, but really locked things down after they got gashed by the Texans in Week 4. They gave up 100 yards to Steven Jackson, but they shut the Rams out and he was literally their whole offense that day. LeBeau's crowning moment was the New England game where he shed the system that he normally played and adopted a press coverage scheme where he utilized cornerbacks against New England's tight ends rather than linebackers to match up with their speed. That game plan was fantastic, but it ultimately backfired against Baltimore the next week when Torrey Smith beat the press coverage over the top. Later in the year, LeBeau seemed to get locked in to his defense and fail to adjust to what teams were doing. This was particularly evident in the San Francisco game and the playoff game against Denver. The biggest addition to the staff was defensive backs coach Carnell Lake who added a tough, hard-nosed edge to the secondary and taught them to play straight-up man coverage and to be more aggressive. It certainly paid off this year.

Special Teams Coach

Even though Shaun Suisham had the worst field goal percentage in the league this year, you can hardly put that on the coach. The coverage units played well, and while there was a blocked field goal and a blocked punt early in the year, the blocking was solid for the second half of the season. Despite the slew of injuries that the team suffered, the special teams units continued to thrive. The Steelers didn't give up any kick returns for scores this year and had their first punt return to the house since Santonio Holmes broke one in the 2008 Divisional against San Diego. Special teams also came up with their first blocked field goal since 2009.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Requiem for a Season: 2011 Steelers Special Teams

What started as a frenetic end to the summer where a last-minute deal was reached on a collective bargaining agreement that enabled the 2012 NFL season to take place ended suddenly for Steelers fans on a cold Sunday night in Denver. Over the summer, we were told that the Steelers experience and depth would enable them to be successful in a season where there were no OTAs and an abbreviated training camp. As it was, the season started with us getting gashed on the ground by Baltimore and Houston, battling through injuries to our world class pass rushers, and ended with giving up 316 yards to Tim Tebow, of all people.

Kicker 

 Shaun Suisham was signed to a multi-year deal last offseason and followed it up with a mediocre season. The coaching staff seemed reluctant to let him kick long field goals. Suisham was 6-for-11 on kicks in the 40-49 yard range and 1-for-2 on kicks over 50 yards. He did miss two from the 30-39 range as well. On the whole, Suisham was not the liability that Jeff Reed had become, but his 74.2% on field goals was the worst in the league.

 Free Agents: none

 The Offseason: Despite Suisham's long-term deal, it would not be surprising to see the Steelers bring in another veteran kicker to camp or even pick up a kicker late in the draft. Given that he was the worst kicker in the league last year (percentage-wise), it wouldn't be surprising if the front office jettisoned Suisham and his $1.35 million contract.

 Punter 

 Daniel Sepulveda suffered yet another season-ending injury, and despite his popularity amongst fans, one has to think this is pretty much the end of the line for him in a Steelers uniform. Sepulveda averaged 46.1 yards per punt before being injured, and for the second consecutive season the Steelers were able to bring in Jeremy Kapinos who averaged a solid 45.0 yards per punt, drastically up from the 41.1 he averaged with the team in 2010.

 Free Agents: Jeremy Kapinos (ERFA)

 The Offseason: One has to think that Kapinos now has the inside track for the punter's job heading into next season and that Sepulveda will be one of the players cut during the offseason to clear out cap space. Kapinos is an Exclusive Rights Free Agent, which would make it extremely difficult for another team to pry him away from the Steelers, assuming we want to bring him back next season.

 Kick & Punt Returner 

 Antonio Brown had a record-setting season, becoming the first player in NFL history to record 1,000 receiving and 1,000 return yards. As Brown's role in the offense increased, the Steelers started cycling in Emmanuel Sanders to the returner's role to keep Brown fresh. Both players are capable returners, with Brown more explosive and having that ability to get vertical quickly and take it to the house at any minute. If the Steelers decide to increase Brown's role in the offense next year, we may see more of Sanders in the return game, or the opportunity may open up for another rookie to earn his way onto the team. Given the talent on the team right now, the days of Allen Rossum and Stefan Logan where we had a dedicated roster spot for a kick returner are over.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Requiem for a Season: 2011 Steelers Defense

What started as a frenetic end to the summer where a last-minute deal was reached on a collective bargaining agreement that enabled the 2012 NFL season to take place ended suddenly for Steelers fans on a cold Sunday night in Denver. Over the summer, we were told that the Steelers experience and depth would enable them to be successful in a season where there were no OTAs and an abbreviated training camp. As it was, the season started with us getting gashed on the ground by Baltimore and Houston, battling through injuries to our world class pass rushers, and ended with giving up 316 yards to Tim Tebow, of all people.

Defensive Line 

 For the second time in the last three seasons, the Steelers spent their first round draft pick on a defensive end. While some may have questioned this move, it was the right move to make from a personnel standpoint. Even with the additions of Hood and Heyward, the Steelers still have aging bodies up front, with Aaron Smith, Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton, and Chris Hoke all over 30. Smith and Hoke both suffered season-ending injuries that may wind up to be career-ending given their age. Hampton tore his ACL in the playoff game in Denver, which puts his status in question for the beginning of next season (not to mention his monster cap hit). Keisel tore his groin in Denver, which is as bad as it sounds, but he should be good to go by the beginning of camp. For a position where we needed youth and depth, the front office has addressed that with the additions of Hood, Heyward and Steve McLendon. If Smith and Hoke both retire, the Steelers will still need to add more bodies up front this offseason.

 Pending Free Agents: Chris Hoke (UFA), Steve McLendon (ERFA)

 The Offseason: Casey Hampton's contract will count for $8 million against the Cap next year, and the Steelers can save almost $6 million of that by cutting Hampton. His recovery from ACL surgery not withstanding, Hampton may wind up going the Max Starks route where he gets cut but the Steelers keep him on speed dial as they monitor his recovery. He may draw some interest from other teams looking for a short-term stopgap in their defensive front, but his age and injury history mean he won't be drawing big money from anyone. The Steelers should head into camp with Keisel, McLendon and Ziggy as the starters with Cam Heyward as the top backup. They will need to add at least 2, possibly 3, men to the roster to provide depth here. If Hampton and Hoke both do not return, the Steelers could be looking at nose tackles early in the draft. Though, given the fact that more teams are spreading the Steelers out with 4 and 5-wide sets, the Steelers tend to play a lot more nickel than base defense, which means any nose tackle is more of a 2-down player, making them less of a priority.

 Linebackers 

 There might not have been a unit on the team that was more devastated by injuries this season than the linebacking corps. After a monster October, LaMarr Woodley missed most of the second half of the season after shredding his hamstring. James Harrison broke his orbital bone in September then came back looking like Darth Vader, only to be suspended by Roger Goodell for blasting Colt McCoy. James Farrior missed the New England game and Larry Foote battled through injuries all season. Lawrence Timmons had the least effective year of his career, switching between inside and outside linebacker depending on the health of the outside guys. Top OLB backup Jason Worlids was injured for the first half of the year and was able to return just in time when Woodley went down. Rookie OLB Chris Carter suffered a season-ending injury in there somewhere as well. Stevenson Sylvester actually started a game, and with the pending cap situation might be in line for an increased role in 2012. 

Pending Free Agents: none

 The Offseason: The biggest thing for this group is to get healthy. The Steelers failed to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback this year, and that can partially be attributed to the fact that Woodley and Harrison only started a handful of games together. Lawrence Timmons missed a bunch of tackles and needs to return to his 2010 form when he played at a Pro Bowl level. Farrior is aging and his $3 million cap hit could make him a cap casualty this offseason. Larry Foote is also due about $3 million and could be a candidate to have his contract re-structured. Consensus around the media and fanbase is that cutting Farrior would be problematic as he makes all the on-field calls on defense and that Lawrence Timmons does not understand the defense enough to step into this role. Either way, Farrior's age and ability to drop into coverage is definitely a concern and the Steelers very well could look to draft an inside linebacker early in the draft. The Steelers have not made many big moves in free agency, but Farrior was a free agent acquisition (from the Jets), so if the front office feels they need a more experienced player to fill Potsie's role, they may look at the talent available on the free agent market. If they feel Foote is capable of stepping into Farrior's role and making the defensive calls, they could look to the draft for an eventual partner for Timmons on the inside.

 Cornerbacks 

 The position where most thought we were vulnerable entering the season turned out to be one of our biggest strengths. Granted, individuals did have bad games (Bryant McFadden vs Baltimore, Will Gay vs Baltimore and Ike Taylor vs Denver) but on the whole, this group exceeded expectations. After an early-season injury, McFadden was buried on the depth chart and Will Gay stepped up to be a significant contributor and solid starter on the outside. Ike Taylor had one of the best regular seasons of his career then got torched in the playoffs. Keenan Lewis finally stepped up his game and emerged as a solid nickel corner that played physical on the outside, enabling Gay to move into the slot in nickel. Rookie Cortez Allen had his best game against New England when he shut down Gronk in man coverage. Fellow rookie Curtis Brown was a special teams ace, leading the team in special teams tackles before suffering a season-ending injury.

 Pending Free Agents: William Gay (UFA), Keenan Lewis (RFA), Anthony Madison (UFA)

 The Offseason: While Brown and Allen are the future of the position, the Steelers will likely make a concerted effort to re-sign both Gay and Lewis. Gay played well throughout much of the season and looked the best he has yet in his career. He is capable of playing the slot in the nickel package, which is an essential cog in LeBeau's defensive scheme. Lewis took a big step forward this year and should be in the mix for playing time again next year. Anthony Madison presents an interesting option for the team, as he was brought in as a special teams player after Cortez Allen was injured. Given that the Steelers will probably cut ties with Safety Will Allen (who is making over $1 million), they may bring Madison back at the veteran minimum as a special teams ace. Assuming Gay and Lewis come back, the Steelers have a solid group of 5 corners heading into the offseason, but may look to add another late in the draft.

 Safeties 

 Troy Polamalu didn't miss any games this season, even though he was taken out of two with concussion-like symptoms. Ryan Clark was the team's leading tackler, which is problematic. It was a great year for Ryan, but any time a safety is your leading tackler, it means your inside linebackers aren't doing their jobs. As long as the Steelers don't have to play in Denver, Ryan Clark should be hitting on all cylinders once again next year. Troy had an up-and-down year. He made a lot of significant plays in run defense, and given the Steelers struggles against the run, found himself playing in the box a lot more this year. He did drop a few interceptions early in the year that hit him right between the numbers. Ryan Mundy emerged as a decent backup who saw the field in the "Dollar" defense when the Steelers went with 3 corners and 3 safeties. Will Allen was primarily a special teams player who battled through some injuries.

 Pending Free Agents: Ryan Mundy (RFA)

 The Offseason: The top two here are set in stone heading into camp. Will Allen and his $1 million-plus salary are a candidate for the cut list as the Steelers try to clear cap room before the early March deadline. The Steelers will likely try to bring Ryan Mundy back as the back-up at both safety positions and will likely add a fourth somewhere, whether that is a veteran through free agency brought in near the minimum or a rookie in the middle rounds of the draft. Personally, I would prefer to see them add a safety in the middle of the draft to give them some youth on the back end as Troy is 30 and Ryan Clark is 32.

Friday, January 20, 2012

WPIAL Realignment

Every two years, the Pennsylvania Interscholastic Athletic Association (PIAA) re-aligns schools into classifications based on the size of the school. This is a difficult endeavor state-wide and their formula goes something like this:

For Boys sports (like football), the number of boys in grades 9-11. For schools like Central Catholic that are all-boys schools, Central's numbers are counted for boys sports and Oakland Catholic's numbers are counted for girls sports. I am fairly certain that total enrollment does not count towards any sports.

 After the number of eligible participants (ie boys or girls) is determined, the schools are listed in order from most to least across the whole state. The top 25% of schools, regardless of location, are placed into Class AAAA. The next 25% in AAA, the next 25% in AA and the smallest 25% in A. This can create difficulty in the less-populated areas of the state where there might only be one or two Class AAAA teams in the entire region.

 Thankfully, WPIAL (or "District 7") does not have that problem. Though enrollments throughout the WPIAL region have been declining, there are still a healthy number of schools in each classification. However, given the shrinking sizes, some schools did move up or down in classification, prompting the WPIAL to realign their conferences. For the last few years, we have been blessed with a simple formula - four conferences in each of the four classifications, enabling four teams from each conference to make the playoffs. But now, due to the lobbying efforts of principals and athletic directors from AAAA and AAA schools, those two classifications have been realigned into three conferences instead of four. The positive of this is that there will be more conference games for AAAA teams, some of whom went almost an entire month before playing a conference tilt. In AAA, the change was prompted by a decrease in the number of teams from 31 to 27. With 27 teams, they were able to be aligned evenly into 3 9-team conferences.

 For the playoffs, 16 teams will compete in each classification. In AAAA and AAA, the top 5 teams from each conference will make the playoffs and one "Wild Card" sixth team will be chosen by the selection committee. The realignment has created some interesting matchups. Some of the moves make sense for geographic reasons, some make sense for competitive balance reasons, and others make absolutely no sense whatsoever for either reason.

 AAAA

With the move to 3 conferences, the biggest move was the dissolution of the Big East Conference. Due to a new policy in PIAA District 10, Erie McDowell is no longer able to compete in the WPIAL as a football-only member. Central Catholic and Fox Chapel move north to join the remaining 6 teams from the Northern Seven Conference. Penn Hills, Plum, and Woodland Hills move south to join the 6 teams from the Great Southern Conference. Altoona and Kiski Area move east to join the 7 teams from the Foothills Conference.

No teams joined the Quad-A ranks this time around, and the only departure was Erie McDowell. With 26 AAAA teams, it is easy to see the difficult situation the football committee was in. They could have chosen smaller conferences with less meaningful games on the schedule that would've made more geographic sense or opted for larger conferences and more conference games that count towards playoff seedings. The biggest question marks are the inclusion of Penn Hills, Plum, and Woody High in with the Southern teams, but given that the "East" already had 9 schools, there was really no other place to put these teams.

To make it easier to see the re-alignment, teams are colored by their previous conference (Northern Seven, Great Southern, Foothills, Big East).

Conference 1 (North): Butler, North Allegheny, North Hills, Pine-Richland, Seneca Valley, Shaler, Central Catholic, Fox Chapel

Conference 2 (South): Baldwin, Bethel Park, Canon-McMillan Mt. Lebanon, Upper St Clair, Peters Township, Penn Hills, Plum, Woodland Hills

Conference 3 (East): Connellsville, Gateway, Latrobe, Hempfield, McKeesport, Norwin, Penn-Trafford, Altoona, Kiski Area

AAA

The biggest change in numbers came in Class AAA which lost 4 schools to declining enrollment. The realignment to 3 conferences in AAA was not as drastic, and the main dissolution was of the Big Eight Conference, which lost South Park and McGuffey to declining enrollment numbers. In addition, the traditionally awful Keystone Conference (owners of a 1-43 record in the first round of the playoffs from 2000-2010 until Franklin Regional's run to the semi-finals last year) was split between the southeastern and northeastern conferences. The "Best Conference in Pennsylvania" Parkway Conference remains strong and adds a solid Chartiers Valley program.

 No teams were added to the AAA ranks, but South Park, McGuffey, Valley, and Kittanning all departed to the AA ranks. The "West" conference is obviously still stacked and the Northeast gets stronger with the return of Franklin Regional, who played in the Greater Allegheny conference with Hampton, Highlands, Knoch, Indiana, and Mars for a while during the last decade.

 To make it easier to see the re-alignment, teams are colored by their previous conference (Big Eight, Greater Allegheny, Keystone, Parkway).

 Conference 1 (Southeast): Albert Gallatin, Laurel Highlands, Ringgold, Uniontown, Belle Vernon, Elizabeth Forward, Thomas Jefferson, Trinity, West Mifflin 

 Conference 2 (West): Ambridge, Blackhawk, Central Valley, Hopewell, Montour, Moon, New Castle, West Allegheny, Chartiers Valley 

 Conference 3 (Northeast): Hampton, Highlands, Knoch, Indiana, Mars, Derry Area, Franklin Regional, Greensburg Salem, Hollidaysburg 

 AA 

Class AA saw the addition of 4 teams that moved down in rank from AAA (South Park, McGuffey, Valley, Kittanning) and lost 3 teams to A due to declining enrollment (West Shamokin, Apollo-Ridge, Laurel). The four AA conferences will retain the same conference names and there were some small moves to accommodate the new teams.

 To make it easier to see the re-alignment, teams are colored by their previous conference (Allegheny, Century, Midwestern, Interstate, AAA Transfer).

 Allegheny Conference: Burrell, Deer Lakes, Ford City, Freeport, Shady Side Academy, Summit Academy, East Allegheny, Kittanning, Valley 

 Century Conference: Burgettstown, Keystone Oaks, Quaker Valley, Seton-LaSalle, South Allegheny, South Fayette, Steel Valley, McGuffey, South Park 

 Midwestern Conference: Aliquippa, Beaver, Beaver Falls, Ellwood City, Freedom, Mohawk, New Brighton, Riverside 

 Interstate Conference: Brownsville, Charleroi, Greensburg Central Catholic, Jeanette, Mt Pleasant, Southmoreland, Waynesburg, Yough, Washington 

 A 

 Class A saw the addition of 3 schools from AA (West Shamokin, Apollo-Ridge, Laurel). Cornell's school board recently decided to end their football program, which means their last game in school history was a 54-0 stomping by Clairton in the opening round of the WPIAL playoffs. On the positive side, Imani Christian Academy (located on the Pittsburgh/Penn Hills border in the East Hills neighborhood of the city) has begun a football program. They will play a WPIAL schedule but are not eligible to participate in the playoffs until they complete their PIAA probation period. Rumors out of the North Hills are that Vincentian Academy President John Fedko is working on starting a football program, which will likely be added to the Class A fold in the next few years.

 Despite only adding 3 teams, there was a lot of shuffling of other teams around in Class A. The movement here makes the least sense from a competitive balance perspective. The WPIAL Football Committee clearly wanted to make life harder for the Clairton Bears as they added defending Eastern Conference champion Bishop Canevin, California, and Monessen to the Black Hills Conference. The worst conference in Class A, the Tri-County South, lost two of its best programs (Monessen and California) and added perennial bottom-dwellers from the Black Hills Conference (Avella and Bentworth). The new slate of teams in the Tri-County South Conference had a 26-57 record last year. Contrast that with the new Black Hills conference, which posted a 57-24 regular season record and includes 7 teams that made the playoffs.

 To make it easier to see the re-alignment, teams are colored by their previous conference (Big Seven, Black Hills, Eastern, Tri-County South, AA Transfer).

 Big Seven: Neshannock, Rochester, Shenango, South Side Beaver, Sto-Rox, Union, Western Beaver, Laurel, OLSH

 Black Hills: Brentwood, Carlynton, Chartiers-Houston, Clairton, Fort Cherry, Serra Catholic, Bishop Canevin, California, Monessen, Imani Christian

 Eastern: Avonworth, Leechburg, North Catholic, Northgate, Riverview, Springdale, Wilkinsburg, Apollo-Ridge, West Shamokin

 Tri-County South: Beth-Center, Carmichaels, Frazier, Geibel, Jefferson-Morgan, Mapletown, West Greene, Avella, Bentworth

Friday, January 13, 2012

The Quest: Jumping Ship

For those of you that have read the blog for a while or follow me on Twitter, you'll know that I'm a Penn State fan. I've been a Penn State fan my whole life, so the next sentence I'm going to type is particularly hard to say.

I have decided, after the culmination of all the events that have taken place at Pennsylvania State University, I can no longer support the institution by cheering for their sports teams.

This is not a slight against the young men who strapped on the helmet and wore the nittany jerseys this season. Or the ones that will do so next year. This is about more than the football team. This is about the institution of Pennsylvania State University and the manner in which they have chosen to conduct business in the wake of the horrifying scandal that has come to light. Say what you will about the guilt or innocence of parties involved, be they administrators, members of the board of directors, students, players, coaches, etc. But throughout the whole process, it has been abundantly clear that the Board of Trustees and top administrators at the school have done more to cover their own butts than to actually find out what took place. In what might go down as the biggest cover-up in the history of the State of Pennsylvania, the leadership at the University has consistently shown that they care more about preserving the name and image of the university than uncovering the truth. Therefore, due to the manner in which the university has decided to conduct business, I feel I can no longer support their athletic programs by wearing the colors and logos of this institution.

Now, this brings me to a quandary. I enjoy watching college football. I love the tradition of the game, the uniforms, the roaring crowds, the history. It's something you just can't get anywhere else. But without a team to root for, I fear my interest my dwindle.

Therefore, I have decided to embark on a quest to choose a new college football team to cheer for. To set the record straight, I hate "bandwagon jumpers" so I'm going to do my best to be as objective as possible and consider the pros and cons of most Division 1 programs. That said, there are certain teams I simply will not cheer for; either due to their style of play, their coach, their history, or just flat out not liking them. There are 10 teams I simply will not cheer for under any circumstances, so let's clear them off the table to start with.

1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. Miami
5. Florida State
6. Notre Dame
7. Nebraksa
8. Maryland
9. Connecticut
10. Mississippi State

That whittles the field of potential candidates down to 110 teams. That number is still a little unruly, so let's eliminate 50 more teams by taking out the "mid-major" schools that really have no chance of competing for a national championship. The only 3 exceptions I'm going to leave on the table are Boise State, TCU (who will be joining the Big XII shortly), and Navy. Even though they are not a mid-major conference, I want a team that is going to play a solid schedule throughout the year and play in a strong conference. We can strike the Big East from this list. I also want a school that actually plays an exciting brand of football, including a strong defense, which will eliminate most of the Big XII. Factoring in some of my other personal preferences, I have whittled the list down to 34 teams that I have separated into "tiers." I listed the teams alphabetically within the tiers since I haven't done enough research to differentiate between preferences.

Tier 1

Alabama - Their dominating defensive performance against LSU in the championship game makes them the "preseason" favorites.

Note: Penn State would also be here if they were still in play. I may include them in my future analysis just to see how they stack up.

Tier 2

Auburn - A solid tradition plus a recent championship makes them a candidate.

LSU - They have been championship contenders, play strong defense, and you can't argue with the excitement factor of watching Les Miles coach a game.

Washington - I have some cousins that live out around Seattle, which makes the Huskies a candidate.

Washington State - I had a cousin go to Wazzu, so I own some Cougars attire already.

Tier 3

Georgia - Between the Hedges, UGA, can't argue with the tradition here. Those jerseys they wore against Boise this year didn't help their cause.

Kansas State - Probably my favorite team of what's left in the Big XII.

Tennessee - I have some relatives around Knoxville, plus you can't argue with 100,000 people singing Rocky Top.

Texas A&M - The 12th Man. Also, the move to the SEC moves them up in my book.

Tier 4

Boise State - Even though they play in a sub-par conference, they are an up-and-coming program and one of the most exciting teams to watch.

Duke - Being a fan of their basketball program means I already own some Duke stuff, so despite a horrible football program, they are ranked high in the preseason rankings.

Iowa - Black and gold.

Ohio State - The question of "can I root against Penn State?" bumps the top contenders from the Big Ten down into Tier 4.

TCU - They've been an exciting team that has sent a slew of players to the pros lately.

Texas Tech - They're not Texas.

Tier 5

Boston College, Clemson, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Michigan St, Navy, NC State, Oklahoma St, Oregon, South Carolina, Stanford, UCLA, UNC, USC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Wisconsin


Moving forward, I'll probably release periodic "Top 25" polls as I do more and more research into the 34 institutions in play for my fandom. In the spirit of an NCAA video game, here are my "recruiting preferences" by category:

AcademicsHigh
CampusLeast
Coach ExperienceAverage
Coach PrestigeHigh
Conference PrestigeAbove Average
Championship ContenderAbove Average
StadiumAbove Average
Fan BaseLow
Pro PotentialAverage
Program StabilityHigh
Program TraditionVery High
Television ExposureAverage
Program IntegrityHigh
Uniforms/LogoHigh
 

I haven't decided how I'm going to factor these preferences in yet, but if anyone would like to make a case for any institution, please feel free to add them in the comments, shoot me an e-mail, or tweet me. Perhaps I'll even include your comments in a future post, depending on how this endeavor goes.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Requiem for a Season: 2011 Steelers Offense

What started as a frenetic end to the summer where a last-minute deal was reached on a collective bargaining agreement that enabled the 2012 NFL season to take place ended suddenly for Steelers fans on a cold Sunday night in Denver. Over the summer, we were told that the Steelers experience and depth would enable them to be successful in a season where there were no OTAs and an abbreviated training camp. As it was, the season started with us getting gashed on the ground by Baltimore and Houston, battling through injuries to our world class pass rushers, and ended with giving up 316 yards to Tim Tebow, of all people.

Quarterbacks

It seems to be a right of passage for the Steelers to battle through a season with an injured Ben Roethlisberger. Is this a function of Big Ben's play or a porous offensive line that has allowed Ben to be sacked 40+ times every year of his career. Ben had a heck of a season and put forth a gutsy effort in the playoffs on what amounted to one leg. Once again, the Steelers saw one of their backup quarterbacks injured in the preseason when Byron Leftwich went down with a broken arm. Charlie Batch played well and led us to a victory against St. Louis. Questions will be asked all offseason if the Steelers should've started Batch against San Francisco and Cleveland. Dennis Dixon didn't see the field during the regular season and will be an unrestricted free agent.

Pending Free Agents: Charlie Batch (UFA), Byron Leftwich (UFA), Dennis Dixon (UFA)

The Offseason: With Ben locked up in a long term contract, the Steelers will likely re-sign Leftwich to be Ben's backup. As we saw throughout the league this year, the importance of a backup quarterback is paramount to a team's success. Charlie Batch is reaching the end of his career and is a candidate for retirement. If he decides not to retire, it's unlikely he'll be in high demand in the free agent market and we could bring him back for 2012. Dennis Dixon was a free agent last year as well and didn't garner much interest from teams around the league. Things may be different this time around, but with Dixon's lack of game experience, it's unlikely anyone would offer him a big contract. If all 3 backups depart for some reason, the Steelers will likely look for a veteran backup to add to the roster and possibly a young developmental project for their #3 QB.

Running Backs

We entered camp with one of the deepest set of backs we had seen in years with a returning 1000-yard rusher (Mendenhall), a short-yardage specialist (Redzone Redman), a 3rd down back (Moore), a one-cut runner that piled up a ton of yards in college (Dwyer), a rookie that with a big upside (Batch), and an undrafted free agent who had been the Big 10 offensive player of the year (Clay). Shockingly, we ended the season with three of them (Mendenhall, Dwyer, Batch) on IR and Mewelde Moore scratched with an MCL injury. Even though Mendenhall didn't have the most productive year in terms of yardage, he ran as hard as we've ever seen him run and hit the holes with authority. The shame for Rashard is that he was just coming into his own as a back and now will have to go through the arduous process of recovering from an ACL injury. Isaac Redman is an exclusive rights free agent and you'd better believe he will be back next season after having the best game of his career against Denver in the playoffs. Mewelde Moore is a solid veteran presence in the backfield but wasn't as effective this season as he had been in the past. Jonathan Dwyer showed flashes of potential this year, including a big 75-yard run against Tennessee but was ultimately lost with a broken foot. Redman was easily their best pass-blocking back and saved Ben's ass a few times on A-gap blitzes. John Clay has a big frame but is still a little raw. He definitely has potential as a developmental player.

Pending Free Agents: Isaac Redman (ER)

The Offseason: Much of the offseason will depend on Mendenhall's recovery from ACL surgery. With Baron Batch's recovery timeline in mind as well (he tore his ACL in camp, so he'll be further along than Rashard by August) the Steelers may look to the draft to add some depth at the RB position. If Mendenhall progresses quickly, the Steelers may be able to skirt by with the same stable of backs, though history has shown that it usually takes almost a year to fully recover from an ACL injury. Assuming Jonathan Dwyer can also fully recover we may start the season with Redman, Moore and Dwyer as our top three backs if Mendenhall is still limited. Not a horrible situation, but you can see why the Steelers might look to add another back via free agency or the draft.

Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown was the team MVP, and deservedly so. Of his 69 receptions, 28 were on 3rd down and 14 were on 3rd down with 9+ yards to go. All Brown did all season was make big plays. Mike Wallace started the season on fire then tapered off after Ben's first foot injury when the Steelers moved to a shorter passing game that had him running more slants and crossing patterns. Wallace's speed was still a factor and he was able to turn some short throws into big gains. The weirdest stat of the season probably comes from Hines Ward. In his pursuit of 1,000 catches he went through stretches where the Steelers seemed to completely ignore him then some games where they tried to rack up catches. Even though Hines seemed to be an afterthought for Bruce Arians, the Steelers were 9-1 in games when he had 3+ catches. In games where Hines had 2 catches or less the Steelers were 2-4, including the losses to San Francisco, Houston, and Denver. Hines' best game of the season was against Tennessee where he had 7 catches. Interestingly enough, that was also the Steelers highest scoring game of the season as they put up 38 against the Titans. After breaking his foot in the Super Bowl, Emmanuel Sanders battled through injuries this season but came up with some big catches against Denver. Sanders has a ton of talent and is the slot receiver of the future. Jerricho Cotchery was a solid free agent acquisition and he made some big plays for this team down the stretch as he saw his role increased in light of Hines Ward's diminished playing time.

Pending Free Agents: Mike Wallace (RFA), Jerricho Cotchery (UFA)

The Offseason: Wallace is the biggest free agent decision this team has to make moving forward. He is the clear #1 receiver on the team and is in line for a big contract. Since he is a restricted free agent, the Steelers will have the right to match any offer he would get from another team if they can't come to a contract agreement before the free agency deadline. Given the way Hines was utilized down the stretch, I can't see him back on the team next year. This isn't a knock against Hines or what he has done for us over the last 14 years. He is arguably the best receiver to ever strap on a Steelers helmet and he battled his heart out every play. That said, he seemed to be excluded from the game plans that the coaching staff put together down the stretch. If you ask me, Hines can still make plays in this league, but the coaches unwillingness to use him makes me think he'll either retire or get cut before training camp next year. Assuming Wallace is re-signed, the Steelers should head into camp with a clear 1-2-3 combo of Wallace-Brown-Sanders. Cotchery is a great fit for what the Steelers do offensively but he will probably test the free agent market as the Steelers won't offer him much money to come back. Don't be surprised if the Steelers pick a receiver in the middle rounds of the draft to add some depth to this unit.

Tight Ends

Weslye Saunders was the "camp phenom" after being the only undrafted free agent to make the 53-man roster. Saunders orchestrated one of the most athletic plays by anyone not named "Antonio Brown" after making a whirling catch in the back of the end zone against Kansas City. Heath Miller was once again his solid, consistent self. Heath exemplifies the "all-around tight end" model as he excells in both blocking and receiving. One disturbing trend that we saw this year was Heath being utilized in the passing game during the first quarter of games then disappearing down the stretch. The Steelers went to him early and often against New England and Denver then pretty much ignored him the rest of the game. Since it's fresh in your mind, you may ask about the missed 3rd down pass in the 4th quarter against Denver when Heath was triple-covered and Antonio Brown was running open. Yes they threw to Heath, but it's never advisable to throw in to triple coverage. David Johnson is the kind of player that Bruce Arians loves because he can fill he "H-back" role as a fullback and blocking tight end. Johnson doesn't have the best hands and dropped multiple passes this year. This was probably the only group on the team that didn't sustain a significant injury all season.

Pending Free Agents: David Johnson (RFA)

The Offseason: Miller and Saunders make a solid 1-2 punch at tight end and it should be fun to watch Weslye develop. For a guy who looked a little timid blocking early in camp, Saunders really picked it up towards the end of the year and honed his blocking skills. The Steelers will likely tender David Johnson with a low-ball offer. Johnson probably won't get many looks from other teams and will probably re-sign. It's unlikely the Steelers will add a tight end in free agency and if Johnson (a former 7th round pick) does depart, they'll probably pick one up towards the tail end of the draft. In all likelihood, this will be the same unit in 2012 that it was in 2011.

Offensive Line

The Steelers first snap of 2012 saw Jonathan Scott, Chris Kemoeatu, Maurkice Pouncey, Doug Legursky, and Willie Colon line up in front of Big Ben. That play was a 9-yard run by Rashard Mendenhall in Baltimore. The last snap of the year, fittingly a sack, saw Jonathan Scott, Chris Kemoeatu, Doug Legursky, Ramon Foster, and Marcus Gilbert line up. In between it seemed like every combination under the sun of Max Starks, Kemoeatu, Legursky, Pouncey, Foster, Gilbert, and Scott saw playing time. At one point we had started 7 different line combinations through 7 games. The re-signing of Max Starks was huge for the left side of the line after J-Scott did his best revolving door impression against Dwight Freeney in Week 3. While this group clearly has it's holes (and believe me, they are big ones), you have to like the way the right half of the line played this year. After the RG free-for-all that took place in camp, Ramon Foster landed the gig for the second consecutive year and played a solid season. He got beat at times, but for an undrafted free agent, the guy has started 26 games over his 3-year career. Maurkice Pouncey is going to be a perennial Pro Bowler at center and rookie Marcus Gilbert stepped in nicely for the injured Willie Colon at RT.

Pending Free Agents: Max Starks (UFA), Trai Essex (UFA), Doug Legursky (RFA), Ramon Foster (RFA)

The Offseason: Max Starks was signed to a 1-year veteran minimum deal and depending on his health (he went down in the Denver game with a knee injury) probably won't return next year. The Steelers threw big money at Willie Colon during the last offseason which pretty much ensures he will be around for at least another year. Colon can't play LT which means that Marcus Gilbert will probably flip sides and move over to the left. After getting benched this year and towing a huge cap number around, Chris Kemoeatu is likely near the top of the cut list this offseason. Doug Legursky played all 3 positions on the interior of the line and makes for a good swing player. I think at one point or another this year, Trai Essex played all 5 positions on the line. Essex isn't good enough to get a lot of attention in the free agent market, but he's not a bad backup to have around either. Look for the Steelers to target an interior lineman - probably a LG - early in the draft.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Roadhouse Blues: Steelers Lose


23
29

The Steelers struggled on the road all season. Whether or not you wanted to believe it or thought they might "flip the switch" once the playoffs hit, they just never put it together outside of Heinz Field. In short to summarize this game, the Steelers were flat out out-coached. John Fox put together a game plan and the Broncos executed it on both sides of the ball. The Steelers didn't really seem to have much of a game plan. If they did, they looked totally unprepared to execute portions of it, like "defending the option."

Denver wins the toss and defers.

Earlier this week, Tomlin mentioned that the Broncos struggled to defend the middle of the field given their injuries at safety. The Steelers go right after it, working Heath Miller for a first down then on a deep seam route to move us into field goal range. The drive eeks inside the 30 and Arians decides to go with a WR screen on 3rd and 7. I'm sure you can imagine how that turned out.

3-0

I've been adamantly against the WR screen since Arians first popped a boner over it after seeing some WPIAL team run it. Even it's biggest proponents, like Tunch Ilkin, will admit it is at best a "run replacement" play that is designed to get you 3-5 yards (usually on first down to get you into second and manageable). If this is a play designed to get you 3-5 yards, why are we running it on 3rd and 7? It's like the mid-90s all over again when we would throw 3 yard passes on 3rd and 7. Except this time the pass didn't even go 2 yards forward.

Denver starts slow, testing the Steelers run defense.

Cotchery drops a ball that hits him right in the hands on 3rd down. If he catches that he might still be running. No one between him and the end zone.

Denver goes 3-and-out again.

Isaac Redman starts to take things over, dominating in short yardage situations, ultimately busting a 3rd and 1 up the guy for 13 yards to get us down into the red zone. The offense can't do anything else and it's Suisham again.

6-0

Second Quarter

Tebow starts to open things up and hits Decker over the middle but he gets blown up by Harrison who, having been suspended for hitting guys high, makes the Goodell-approved hit and destroys Decker's knee.

Tebow comes right back like he's playing NFL Blitz and runs Da Bomb, connecting with Thomas over Ike Taylor. Two plays later, he hits Royal over Will Gay down the right side on pretty much the exact same pass Jordy Nelson scored on in the Super Bowl.

6-7

The Steelers catch a case of the drops as David Johnson drops one that hits him in the hands and Mike Wallace can't hang on to a deep ball that was initially called a catch. Fox wins the challenge and the Steelers wind up punting.

Tebow keeps running his video game offense and bombs another one for Thomas down the sideline. Two plays later, Tebow takes it up the middle for a touchdown.

6-14

The wheels start to come off as Starks gets blown over and Ben gets sacked then throws a pick across the middle.

Denver takes over deep in Steelers territory but the defense locks it down and forces a field goal. Big-time stand by the defense right there.

6-17

A defensive penalty wipes away another interception but the Steelers can't really do anything with it.

Tebow throws Da Bomb again. McGahee gets them into field goal range.

6-20

The Steelers take over with 1:05 left on the clock and a chance to put some points on the board. AB and Sanders make big grabs to get us across midfield and we use our second timeout with 51 seconds left. Ben hits Sanders to get us to the edge of field goal range, but on 3rd down Legursky snaps the ball over Ben's head, knocking us out of field goal range.

Kapinos punts and Tebow kneels.

Halftime

Lots of people freaking out, but for those of us that remember the Ravens playoff game last year know that it only takes one big play from the defense and we're right back in the game.

Third Quarter

The Broncos are able to drive into Steelers territory, but the defense is able to tighten it up and force a punt.

Brown converts a 3rd down to get things moving. We catch a HUGE break when Ben throws a WR screen for Wallace that he drops, but since it was a backwards pass it should've been a fumble. Somehow, the refs blew the whistle and called it incomplete so it's not challengeable. Sanders converts another 3rd down to move a sputtering drive out to the 40. Brown picks up a big chunk on an end-around. Redman works it to 3rd and short then gashes Denver up the middle, rumbling all the way to the goal line. The initial call is a touchdown, but after review Redman's knee was down at the 1. With less than a yard to paydirt, Arians decides to...run the ball parallel to the line of scrimmage?! It's a good thing Mike Wallace is fast. He zooms around the corner on an end-around and gets into the end zone untouched.

That was either going to be a 4-yard loss or a touchdown. Horrible play call in that situation, but we're lucky that it worked.

13-20

Denver gets the benefit of a horrible pass interference call when Thomas stops running and Ike bumps him. Tebow puts the team on his shoulders and carries them down into the red zone.

Fourth Quarter

A holding penalty sets the Broncos back, but they stretch their lead with a field goal.

13-23

All Antonio Brown does is make big plays, and he makes a huge catch to get the drive rolling. Redman bounces one off tackle and rumbles down the sideline to get us into field goal range.  Ben scrambles to get us into 3rd and reasonable then tries to throw into triple coverage for Heath and the ball gets knocked away. Suisham puts us within a score.

16-23

Tebow converts a 3rd down to get things moving, but Ryan Mundy is able to do his best Ryan Clark impression and whacks Willis McGahee, knocking the ball out. The ball hops into Woodley's arms for the HUUUGE turnover our defense needed.

007 takes over with 7 and a half left, and recovers from a sack by hitting Manny Sanders to get close to the sticks. Redman converts again. Ben and Redman carry us down into field goal range. We catch a huge break when Ben tries to take a shot deep for Wallace into double coverage and Champ Bailey drops the pick. On the next play, Ben does his Ben thing, scrambling out of the pocket then gunning one to Cotch in the middle of the end zone. Cotch takes a big hit but hangs on to tie the game.

23-23

Denver doesn't move very urgently, and a few incompletions from Tebow stop the clock and give Ben a chance with a minute and a half to go.

Ben has put together plenty of game-winning drives in his career, and you really believed that he was going to do it again here. But the guys up from just couldn't block a 4-man rush, and that hurt. Ben gets sacked at the start of the drive, but bounces back and hits AB for a huge 17-yarder then floats one to Sanders for 18 more down the sideline to get us across midfield with 30 ticks left. On a 3-man rush, Dumervil is able to reach in and knock the ball out. The season flashes before your eyes as the ball lays there but Ben falls on it and the Steelers use their last timeout with 18 seconds left. Redman gets a few yards on a check-down and gets out of bounds at midfield with a few seconds left. Rather than try a 68-yard field goal, Tomlin elects to go for the hail mary. But Ben gets sacked and that's that.

Overtime

CBS makes a big deal about the new overtime rules. Guess what? It didn't matter.

John Fox makes a great call to go for the jugular and Tebow hits Thomas on a deep post route. Thomas throws a stiff arm to Ike and he's off to the races, taking it all the way to the house.

23-29

Game.

Season.

Players of the Game
Offensive Game Ball: Isaac Redman
Defensive Game Ball: Lawrence Timmons

Honorable Mentions:
Ben Roethlisberger
Antonio Brown
Emmanuel Sanders
Jerricho Cotchery
Shaun Suisham

Mr. Yuck Sticker of the Game
No Safeties

When a touchdown is the only thing that beats you, I don't understand having no safeties in the middle of the field. Ryan Mundy cheated up to stop the run and the play-action froze him in his tracks. Mundy had no chance and the Steelers basically left Ike Taylor to try to defend the entire 52x80 section of field. Ike definitely had his worst game of the season, but he had no safety help over the top all day. It was like Tebow was playing a video game where he just had to chuck it deep.

Final Thoughts
  • Ike Taylor really struggles against Denver. Not sure what it is, but he got lit up by them in 2006 in Pittsburgh too.
  • I mentioned on twitter that I was worried that Hines wasn't part of the game plan. The Steelers were 9-1 this year when he caught 3+ passes. Hines had no catches and only 2 targets. I doubt he was on the field for more than 5 plays.
  • Debate me if you want, but the WR screen is the worst play in the playbook. What a horrible play.
  • The Steelers looked like they had no game plan for this game. They didn't have a consistent plan for attacking Denver's defense and seemed lost and fragmented with their offensive play-calling. On defense, we looked like we had no idea how to defend the option and like we were afraid to blitz.
  • Heath had two big catches early then was pretty much silent the rest of the game.
  • Gutsy effort by Ben going the distance on what was basically one leg.
  • Lawrence Timmons had his best game of the season.
  • What a game by Isaac Redman. This guy has what it takes to be a feature back in the NFL. Gotta get the kid more carries next season. Then again, depending on Mendenhall's recovery timeline, Redman might be the starter entering camp.
  • Losing Hampton and Keisel to injury hurt. It really wasn't much of a surprise the inside guys didn't get much push considering Ziggy, Cam, and McLendon had to play the whole game without subbing out.
  • The Steelers had opportunities at the ends of both halves with the ball across midfield that they could've at least gotten field goal attempts, but a bad snap and a sack ended those chances.
  • This might have been the first football game I have ever seen that no holding was called. There was holding all over the place, but Ron Winters and his crew decided they wouldn't call it.
  • All in all, this was a 12-4 season where we endured a lot of injuries, battled through them, saw young guys arise, and ultimately saw an bruised and battered offensive line unable to hold their blocks at key times at the end of both halves.
  • Given all the injuries we had, it's hard to imagine this team getting past New England, but it still would've been nice to see them try.
  • In the grand scope of my Steelers fandom, this loss doesn't even rank in the top 5 as most painful in the playoffs. It was a tough way to lose, but hey, you can't win them all. Ask the 2007 New England Patriots.
  • As Dick LeBeau told the defense today in their end-of-the-year meeting: Come back next year ready to win a Super Bowl.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Wild Card Gameday: Denver Broncos

Sunday January 8
4:30pm
Mile High Stadium
CBS

What To Watch For

1. Tebow vs Deebo

This has been one of the slogans for Steeler Nation all week leading up to this game. If you listened to Tunch Ilkin on the DVE Morning Show on Friday, he talked a lot about the "option man" on defense. To break it down, for a team that runs a "read option" like Denver, the quarterback will take the snap and put the ball in the stomach of the running back. At this point, the QB is "reading" the outside guy, be it the defensive end or outside linebacker. If the defender crashes down on the running back, the QB will pull the ball back with it and run himself. If the defender waits and "spies" the quarterback, he will hand it off to the running back. Against teams like Buffalo and Kansas City, their strategy was to make sure they dedicated two defenders, usually an outside linebacker and a safety to keying on the running back (McGahee) and quarterback (Tebow). If the Steelers go this route, it will likely be with the outside linebacker keying on the running back and a safety (probably Troy) spying Tebow.

2. Bumps and Bruises

The Steelers come into this game nursing some injuries. With Rashard Mendenhall on the IR and Mewelde Moore still out, the lionsshare of the workload will fall on the shoulders of Isaac Redman. Redman has been a beast all year. Until his last 3 carries of the Cleveland game, he had converted all of his short-yardage attempts and hadn't fumbled. But in his last 3 carries? Stopped on 3rd and 1 and fumbled twice. We're confident Redman will bounce back. Maurkice Pouncey has been limited this week in practice because of his sprained ankle and we obviously know about Ben's sprained ankle. LaMarr Woodley should be back, along with Doug Legursky. In the secondary, we signed Anthony Madison for special teams and cornerback depth. Denver has some injuries too, the biggest of which is safety Brian Dawkins who might miss the game.

3. Find the End Zone

Let's face it, Denver's offense isn't that good. They have relied on their defense to keep them in games so that Tebow can work his magic late. Tim Tebow is a winner, flat out. What he has done in the fourth quarter of games this year is incredible. He's the anti-LeBron. He bleeds clutch. That said, the best way to beat him is to just bury him early and force him to try to lead a comeback. Denver has the best rushing attack in the league, but their offense is built to go on long drives that eat a lot of clock. They are not a quick-strike team. Putting points on the board hasn't exactly been the Steelers forte since Ben hurt his ankle, but they're going to need to find the end zone if they want to pull this one out.

4. Steelers receivers vs Broncos Secondary

The Broncos will blitz a lot with OLBs Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, so the Steelers receivers will have to get open against the Broncos corners. Champ Bailey was once a good corner and Andre Goodman is decent, but you have to believe Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will be able to get open against these guys. Denver is 18th in the league in passing defense and has allowed 24 passing touchdowns this season, an average of about 1.5 per game. For a team that hasn't had a passing touchdown since Antonio Brown iced the first Cleveland game, this could be just the remedy the Steelers passing game needs.

5. Make Them Relinquish The Ball

We've had some great playoff success in Denver, like winning the 2005 AFC Championship Game. That said, these are both completely different teams. The Steelers have struggled to stop the run at times this year, and struggled to generate turnovers. Denver runs the ball very well and struggles when Tebow has to put the ball in the air. That said, during his big winning streak he was able to keep the ball secure and not turn it over. Teams have started to get after Tebow more and generate fumbles, something the Steelers haven't done much of this year. The reunited combination of Harrison and Woodley could help that, but if we're going to have success in the playoffs, we're going to have to generate turnovers.

It's playoff football baby. Wouldn't trade it for anything.

HERE WE GOOOOOOO

Monday, January 2, 2012

1000 for Hines: Steelers Win


 13
  9

There were enough Steelers fans in the stands to prompt the Browns to treat it like an away game and wear their white jerseys.

Cleveland wins the toss, takes the ball, and promptly goes 3-and-out.

Mendenhall carries us down the field to the fringe of field goal range. Tomlin elects to go for it on 4th and 3 rather than try a 49-yarder with the wind at our back. Ben can't hit Redman and it's a turnover on downs.

Troy does his "dive through the line" play and pulls Wallace down before he can hand the ball off.
What a player. 

3-and-out again for Cleveland.

Even with the wind at our back, the passing game can't get on track. The running game carries us to midfield but Ben gets sacked and that's that.

Another 3-and-out from the Browns.

Mendenhall bounces one outside and tries to make a cut but his knee gives out and he crumples to the ground.

Might be a torn ACL.



Shit.

Second Quarter

With Mendenhall out and the wind in our face, it's the Isaac Redman show. A holding penalty knocks us back but Ben zings one to Manny Sanders to get us down to the 22. Faced with a 4th and 1, Tomlin elects to go with Redman rather than try a 40-yard field goal. Redman spins off two tacklers and picks it up. Whew. After the moment of relief, Ben gets sacked on 3rd down, leaving us with a 45-yard field goal that the wind blows left.

With the wind at their back, the Browns start to move the ball and catch a spark when Wallace scrambles for 30 yards on 3rd and 2. The Steelers lock it down at the goal line and force a field goal. 

0-3

The offense sputters going into the wind and punt it back to the Browns with 3 minutes left in the half.

Wallace comes out with the wind at his back and hits two big passes to Josh Cribbs to get the Browns into long field goal range. Dawson hits a 45-yarder.

 
 0-6

 Ben gets the ball back with a minute left and hits two quick passes to Cotch and Hines to get us near midfield. After a timeout, Ben loads up and guns one to AB down the right side that Brown catches against the side of his helmet for a huge 40-yard gain to get us down into the red zone.

All Antonio Brown does is make big plays.

After two incompletions, Ben hits AB on a crossing route near that goal line to pick up the first down with 11 ticks left. Out of timeouts, Ben tries two fade patterns that fall incomplete and Suisham gets us on the board before the half.

 3-6

Third Quarter

The Steelers get the ball out of the half, and Isaac Redman just takes over. He carries us out to midfield where Ben hits Heath to convert a 3rd down. The drive keeps rolling when AB reels one in to move the sticks again. Wallace takes a WR screen down to the 10, but the Steelers can't get any closer and settle for tying the game.

6-6

The Browns get into 3rd and short but pressure on Wallace forces him to roll out and Troy jumps a route on the sideline for a big turnover in Browns territory.

The offense takes over, getting Hines a catch then pounding Redman into field goal range. AB gets us closer and Redman hits a hole and slices in from 7 yards out.



13-6

There were two things the Steelers struggled to defend in this game. Josh Cribbs and Seneca Wallace scrambling. Cribbs reels in a few more and Wallace reels off another big gain on the ground to get the Browns into field goal range. Ryan Clark gets a rare blitz opportunity and makes the most of it, bringing down Wallace. Tomlin declines a holding penalty on 3rd down that wouldn't knocked the Browns out of field goal range and elects to let Dawson try a 49-yarder.

It's right down the middle.

13-9

I honestly don't mind that call. Why give the Browns another snap? If they pick up any more than 10, it's a closer field goal. I'll take my chances with a 49-yarder any day.

Hines picks up catch #999 but Redman gets stopped for the first time all year on 3rd and 1. I think that was a bad omen of what was to come for him in the 4th.

Fourth Quarter

Kapinos flips the field and the Browns go 3-and-out.

Early in his career, Hines used to run the behind-the-line drag shovel-pass all the time. Now, it was only fitting that would be the play he would make his 1000th catch. The only problem was no one remembered to block the inside linebacker and Hines loses 3 yards. Oh well, 1000 is still an incredible record.

AB makes up for the loss by making a diving catch against his hip. Cleveland challenges the play but AB had it al the way. 

What a grab.

There were 2 things Isaac Redman hadn't done all year. One was get stopped on a 3rd and 1. The other was fumble. In two carries (one at the end of the 3rd, and his first of the 4th) he did both. Ugh.

The Browns convert a 3rd and long with a sideline out, but that was the only throw Wallace could make into the wind. The Browns elect to punt rather than try a 50 yarder.

John Clay comes in to spell Redman and isn't as effective. We get a first down via penalty and Cotch converts another one to get us out to the 40. Redman comes back in and takes off over the right side and rumbles down into Browns territory, carrying half their defense on his back as he fights for extra yards. He gets spun around and somehow the ball comes out. That's shockingly rare. But it's Browns ball.

The Browns can't do anything with it and punt back to the Steelers with 5 minutes left.

The Steelers go into "wind the clock" mode and grind out a first down with Clay and a pass to Heath. The Browns use their last timeout and the Steelers find themselves in the age-old situation. 2 minutes to go, 3rd down, the other team out of timeouts. Run the ball and wind another 40 seconds off the clock or  go for the win and throw, hoping you pick it up so that the game ends. The danger of throwing, as we saw against Baltimore, is that if it's incomplete you leave the other team with a full 2 minutes to try to score.

Tomlin has always thrown in these situations, but with 3rd and 2 I thought the run might be worth it. But they opt for a throw and it's incomplete, leaving the Browns with a full 2 minutes to drive down the field.

Wallace starts picking his way down the field, moving the Browns across midfield as the clock ticks under a minute. Ryan Clark makes a big tackle to keep a guy in bounds inside the 40 as the clock goes under 30 seconds. Timmons makes another big-time tackle near the sidelines to keep Moore in bounds at the 25. Wallace spikes the ball with 5 seconds left, leaving one last shot for the end zone. Troy gets a hand on the jump ball and knocks it away, ending the threat as time expires.



Playoffs here we come.

Players of the Game
Offensive Game Ball: Antonio Brown
Defensive Game Ball: Troy Polamalu

Honorable Mentions:
Hines Ward
Isaac Redman
Lawrence Timmons
Ryan Clark
Jason Worlids

Mr. Yuck Sticker of the Game
Injuries

Not only did we lose Mendenhall with a torn ACL, but we also lost Cortez Allen (shoulder), Keenan Lewis (hamstring), and David Johnson (elbow, I think). Hopefully at least a few of these guys can get healthy for the playoffs.

Final Thoughts
  • It wasn't pretty, but 12-4 is 12-4 and that's hard to argue with.
  • What an accomplishment for Hines Ward to have 1,000 career catches. We've been blessed to watch him for the last 14 years.
  • All Antonio Brown does is make big plays. Period.
  • Ryan Clark has been a big force in our run defense this year. Going to be tough in Denver without him.
  • This might have been the best game Troy played all year. He was a force all over the field and came up with a big interception.
  • Looked like Ben came up gimpy after scrambling out of the pocket late in the game.
  • Despite the two fumbles, I'm not worried about Isaac Redman. He put up almost 100 yards and had the most carries he had all season.
  • For everyone who is going to say "The Steelers almost lost to Blaine Gabbert, Tyler Palko, Curtis Painter, Andy Dalton, and Seneca Wallace" just remember that the Ravens actually did lose to Blaine Gabbert, Tavaris Jackson, and Matt Hasselbeck. Almost only counts in horseshoes.
  • Thankful to be back in the playoffs. Never take that for granted. The Bills haven't been to the playoffs since 1999.
  • This season has been a fun ride. Not the best season for our hearts and stomachs, but it's never easy with the Steelers. Now it's playoff time. Get ready.