2014 NCAA Tournament East Region Preview

The NCAA Tournament officially tips off on Tuesday night with the Play-in games (because, get real, calling them the "First Round" or the "First Four" is ridiculous) in Dayton. Here is a look at the East Region.

1. Virginia vs 16. Coastal Carolina

Raleigh, 9:25pm Friday (TBS)

Virginia was the ACC regular season and conference tournament champions and play some absolutely suffocating defense. The Cavaliers aren't going to blow anyone out of the water, but they are a very solid all-around team that is reminiscent of Butler a few years ago when they made a run to the title game thanks to a lock-down defense and clutch shooting. The Cavaliers have bona fide stars in Malcolm Brogdon and Joe Harris but have a very good lineup all around from center Mike Tobey, a 7-footer with touch, forward Akil Mitchell (one of the best defenders in the nation) and point guard Logan Perrantes (3.5 assists-to-turnover ratio). Coastal Carolina won a wild Big South Tournament and is the second-lowest rated team in the field on KenPom.com (232nd). The Chanticleers do have one of the best nicknames in the nation and have 3 players averaging over 14 points per game in Elijah Wilson, Warren Gillis and Josh Cameron. On the inside, Coastal Carolina is led by two players from The Senegal - El Hadji Ndieguene and Badou Diagne along with Michael Enanga from Cameroon who all average over 5 rebounds and 20 minutes per game, combining to make the Chanticleers one of the top rebounding teams in the nation.

8. Memphis vs 9. George Washington

Raleigh, 6:55pm Friday (TBS)

Memphis and head coach Josh Pastner finally got over the elusive hump of not being able to beat a ranked team this season. The Tigers beat an Oklahoma State team ranked in the Top 5, Louisville twice, Gonzaga and Southern Methodist. Memphis isn't a very deep team, with only 6 players averaging over 15 minutes per game, but they are stacked with offensive talent in point guard Joe Jackson (14.3 PPG, 4.5 APG), Michael Dixon Jr (11.8 PPG) and Shaq Goodwin (11.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG). The Tigers share the ball incredibly well and rank 3rd in the nation at 17.4 assists per game while being aggressive defensively (8.7 steals per game, 7th in the nation). The Tigers are a good offensive team that could give Virginia problems in the second round as they shoot almost 48% from the field and average over 77 points per game, both marks in the top 35 in the nation. Their downfall will be from the free throw line, where they shoot just 64.9% as a team (326th out of 351 Division 1 teams). Jackson and Dixon Jr are the only players that make more than two-thirds of their free throw attempts. George Washington has been hovering around the middle of the pack for pretty much the whole season. They beat Creighton early in the season and pretty much carried that win through the rest of the year, adding in home victories against VCU and St Joe's in A-10 play to complete their resume. The Colonials present a very interesting matchup for Memphis in that they are also not a very deep team (6 players averaging over 25 minutes) and can score from anywhere on the floor (5 players averaging double-digits, led by Maurice Creek's 14.3 PPG). George Washington also struggles from the line (65.4%, 314th in the nation). The biggest factor in this game could be the referees - if they call a tight game and either team has to go to their bench, their chances of winning are greatly diminished.

5. Cincinnati vs 12. Harvard

Spokane, 2:10pm Thursday (TNT)

Cincinnati boasts one of the best defensive teams in the nation, holding opponents to just 58.3 points per game (6th in nation). The Bearcats also rank in the top 25 in steals (7.9 per game) and blocks (5.5 per game). Sean Kilpatrick has made a name for himself as one of the top scorers in the nation, averaging 20.7 points per game and hitting a number of clutch shots to earn victories for Cincinnati. Outside of Kilpatrick and forward Justin Jackson (11.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG), Cincinnati doesn't present much of an offensive threat, with no one else averaging more than 7.5 points per game. On the other side, Harvard is coming off their second Ivy League title and looking to pull another upset in the Big Dance after toppling #3 seed New Mexico last year. The Crimson return 5 of their top 6 players from last year's team and feature a roster loaded with scorers (5 players averaging over 10 points per game). This will be a matchup of strength on strength as Harvard's offense matches up against Cincinnati's defense. Ultimately, I think Cincinnati's length and athleticism will give Harvard problems on the perimeter, but don't be surprised if the Crimson hang tight in this one for a long time.

4. Michigan St vs 13. Delaware

Spokane, 4:40pm Thursday (TNT)

Everyone is picking Michigan State as the favorite to not only come out of this region but also to win the National Championship. That wouldn't be surprising as the Spartans were one of the best teams in the country when they had a healthy roster. After struggling through injuries and trading wins and losses through the second half of conference play, Michigan State finally got healthy at the end of the season and blew through the conference tournament, capturing the Big Ten crown. Get to know the names of guards Gary Harris (17.1 PPG) and Keith Appling (12.3 PPG, 4.6 APG) and forwards Adreian Payne (15.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG) and Branden Dawson (10.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG) as you'll be hearing a lot from them as Tom Izzo aims for another deep run in the tournament. If you need a reason to root against Delaware, remember it's Joe Flacco's alma mater. Delaware was the best team in the CAA all season and won the conference tournament title over William & Mary (who is one of the 5 original Division 1 members that have never made the NCAA Tournament) on a go-ahead layup with under 10 seconds to go. The Blue Hens are led by the school's all-time leading scorer Devon Saddler (19.7 PPG), senior guard Davon Usher (19.4 PPG) and junior guard Jarvis Threatt (18.1 PPG). All 5 of Delaware's starters average in double figures with Carl Baptiste (11.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) anchoring the interior. Delaware is one of the highest scoring teams in the nation at nearly 80 points per game, but they do not shoot incredibly well from the field, but are one of the fastest teams in the nation (10th in Tempo).

6. North Carolina vs 11. Providence

San Antonio, 7:20pm Friday (TNT)

Who is North Carolina this year? Are they the team that lost at home to Belmont and Miami and got blown out of the gates by Pitt in the first half of their first game in the ACC Tournament? Or are they the team that beat Duke by 8 on their home floor in the midst of a 12-game winning streak in ACC play and stormed back in the second half against Pitt to only lose by 5? Part of their enigma lies in Marcus Paige, who is one of the best closers in the nation. Paige scores about 65% of his points in the second half with about 64% of those coming in the final 10 minutes of games. All told, Paige scores 42% of his points in the final 10 minutes of the game after being mostly invisible for the first half. Tar Heel Blog did an excellent breakdown of the numbers. The Heels have struggled since the calendar turned to march, narrowly escaping upsets by ACC bottom feeders Virginia Tech and Notre Dame before getting stomped by Duke then losing to Pitt in the ACC Tournament. This is a team that is trending down, and catches Providence who is hot off a Big East Tournament Title. The Friars bubble hopes looked slim after losing 4 of 4 in early February and missing chances down the stretch against Villanova (who they took to double OT) and Creighton. They came back to pop St John's bubble in the first round of the Big East Tournament then got lucky when Seton Hall upset Villanova, paving their way to a rematch with Creighton. Just a week removed from a 15-point loss to the Jays, Providence went with a zone defense and held Creighton to just 58 points and got 23 points from leading scorer Bryce Cotton (21.4 PPG, 5.8 APG) to secure their spot in the field. Bryce Cotton vs Marcus Paige should be a heck of a battle, but don't count out the rest of the Friars offense - they have 3 players averaging between 11 and 14 points per contest.

3. Iowa St vs 14. NC Central

San Antonio, 9:50pm Friday (TNT)

If you haven't seen Iowa State play this season, make sure you tune in to catch the Cyclones in action. They are one of the most exciting up-and-down teams you'll see with NBA talent in the frontcourt in Melvin Ejim (18.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG) and in the backcourt in DeAndre Kane (17.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.8 APG). Add in sophomore forward Georges Niang (16.5 PPG) and point guard Monte Morris who leads the nation with a 5.4 assist-to-turnover ratio and you get a Cyclones team that averages nearly 83 points per game (6th in the nation), shares the ball incredibly well (18.5 APG, leads the nation), and crashes the boards (38.8 RPG, 23rd in nation). As is often the case with stellar offensive teams, Iowa State struggles on the defensive end, but they have enough offensive talent to take them on a deep run in this tournament. North Carolina Central is appearing in their first ever NCAA Tournament, giving Durham, NC more schools in the Big Dance (2) than the states of Indiana and Illinois combined (0). NC Central dominated the MEAC this season to the tune of an 18-1 conference record and carries a 20-game win streak into the NCAA Tournament. The Eagles are led by Jeremy Ingram (20.6 PPG), who is their only player averaging more than 11 points per contest. Their second-leading scorer (Jordan Parks, 10.2 PPG) averages just 19 minutes per game because of foul problems. Parks has racked up at least 4 fouls in 15 of his 33 games this season and fouled out 6 times.

7. UConn vs 10. St Joseph's

Buffalo, 6:55pm Thursday (TBS)

If you want proof that the Committee disrespected the American Athletic Conference, look no further than the seed given to UConn. The Huskies finished third in the AAC and had more Top 50 wins (7) than 2 of the other 7 seeds (Texas - 6, Oregon - 4), 2 of the 6-seeds (Ohio St - 6, UNC - 5) and 3 of the 5-seeds (Cincinnati - 6, St Louis - 5, VCU - 5). Nevertheless, the Committee gave us a heck of a game between UConn's Shabazz Napier who leads the team in most major categories (17.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.7 SPG) and St Joe's Langston Galloway (17.5 PPG). As usual, UConn has a very good defensive team that ranks 11th in defensive efficiency and 8th in blocks per game. St Joe's is coming off an A-10 Tournament title where they solved VCU's press for the second time this season. The Hawks don't have a very deep team and have 5 players that all average over 31 minutes per game, but 4 of those 5 are double-digit scorers, so they can get offense from anywhere on the court.

2. Villanova vs 15. Milwaukee

Buffalo, 9:25pm Thursday (TBS)

Villanova is one of the biggest unknowns of the NCAA Tournament field. They have an impressive resume that features wins over 7 NCAA Tournament teams (Mt St Mary's, Delaware, Kansas, Iowa, St Joe's, Providence and Xavier). Their only regular season losses came to Syracuse and a sweep by Creighton. However, the dud that the Wildcats laid in the opening round of the Big East Tournament against Seton Hall has caused some red flags to be raised. They are in the top 20 in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency and feature a trio of scorers that all average 14 points per game in James Bell, Darrun Hillard and JayVaughn Pinkston. On the other side, Milwaukee took the hard road to the Horizon League title from the #5 seed, beating top-seeded Green Bay in overtime in the semi-finals and #3 seed Wright State for the Championship. The Panthers are not a very deep team as 4 of their 5 starters average more than 30 minutes per game and the fifth averages 27. The Panthers do have good scoring distribution with 4 players averaging double-figures, led by Jordan Aaron's 15 points per game.

2014 NCAA Tournament South Region Preview

The NCAA Tournament officially tips off on Tuesday night with the Play-in games (because, get real, calling them the "First Round" or the "First Four" is ridiculous) in Dayton. Here is a look at the South Region, which features #1 overall seed Florida.

1. Florida vs 16. Albany/Mt St Mary's

Orlando, 4:10pm Thursday

The Gators are the top seed in the tournament and haven't lost since December 2. Their perfect run through the SEC was dominating, featuring 11 double-digit wins. In a league where no other team finished above .500 on the road, Florida swept through the road traps and rolled over bubble teams Missouri and Tennessee in the SEC Tournament before winning a nail-biter against Kentucky in the SEC Championship. A lot has been made about how this Florida team "lacks any NBA players" but Billy Donovan's team is well-rounded with 7 players averaging over 20 minutes per game and 4 averaging double figures. The Gators top three scorers shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc. If there is an area of concern for the Gators, it is at the free throw line where they shoot just 67% as a team (275th in the nation) and have only 2 players shooting over 70%. Albany and Mt St Mary's will kick off the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday night at 6:40 (on TruTV) is appearing in their 2nd straight NCAA Tournament after winning the America East Tournament and once again denying Stony Brook their first trip to the Big Dance. As an aside, poor Stony Brook. This was their 3rd trip to the America East Championship Game in the last 5 years and they've lost all three. Mount Saint Mary's won their way to the Big Dance from the #4 seed in the Northeast Conference, which started with a miracle comeback. The Mountaineers trailed St Francis by 19 with 10 minutes to play in their first round matchup and had cut the deficit to 5 with 42 seconds left. St Francis made just 1 of 4 free throws down the stretch and Rashad Whack hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give Mt St Mary's the victory. The Mountaineers didn't look back and ran through the NEC Tournament to finish with a 16-16 record.

8. Colorado vs 9. Pittsburgh

Orlando, 1:40pm Thursday (TBS)

Colorado was given their highest seed ever despite playing more than half their season without leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie. The Buffaloes aren't a bad team without Dinwiddie but they aren't the worldbeaters that topped Harvard, Kansas and Oregon. Colorado has averaged just 64.6 points per game since Dinwiddie was injured after averaging 76.4 with him in the lineup. Colorado hasn't scored over 70 points in over a month, which is great news for a Pitt team that has had its struggles on the offensive end and is 125th in the nation in scoring. Pitt seemed to put things together in the ACC Tournament, crushing Wake Forest and storming out to a big lead over North Carolina and holding on down the stretch before falling to Virginia by just 3 points in a first-to-50 defensive struggle. Senior forward Talib Zanna played out of his mind in the ACC Tournament, averaging 17 points and 13 rebounds per game (including a 21-rebound performance against UNC). Pitt does not have a lot of scoring depth behind Zanna (12.9 PPG) and Lamar Patterson (17.6 PPG) and this could very well be a game that is played in the 50s between two teams without much depth.

5. VCU vs 12. Stephen F Austin

San Diego, 7:27pm Friday (truTV)

VCU's HAVOC defense will cause problems for teams without experienced ball-handlers. The Rams are 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency and play a style that has given Stephen F Austin troubles in the past. The Lumberjacks dominated the Southland Conference this year but struggled against nemesis Northwestern State - who plays an up-tempo game. As should be expected from a team named the Lumberjacks, Stephen F Austin plays at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, and will be a distinct contrast in style from VCU's up-tempo pressure. St Joe's beat VCU twice this year (including the A-10 Championship Game) by forcing VCU to defend in half-court sets. Stephen F Austin is one of top 50 teams in offensive efficiency, and could pull the traditional 12-5 upset here, but I'm wary to suggest that you pick them because of their struggles against up-tempo teams this year. Everyone is jumping on the SFA bandwagon because they have won 28 straight games and only lost twice all season, but it's hard to pick against Shaka Smart's defense in a matchup like this.

4. UCLA vs 13. Tulsa

San Diego, 9:57pm Friday (truTV)

UCLA won the Pac-12 tournament, topping Arizona in the title game thanks to 21 points from Kyle Anderson, 19 from Jordan Adams and 15 from Norman Powell. The Bruins are one of the highest scoring teams in the nation (81.8 PPG) but have virtually no inside presence as their top 5 scorers are all guards. UCLA is a dangerous team in transition, led by Anderson, a point guard with NBA potential. The worry about the Bruins are the absolute duds they have laid on the road in the regular season finale against Washington State (where they lost by 18) and against Oregon State. In conference play, UCLA was held under 70 points only 4 times in 21 games (including the conference tournament) and won just 1 of those 4 games. The bad news for UCLA is that Tulsa ranks 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The good news is that Tulsa also likes to play an up-tempo game, which favors the Bruins and their talent. Tulsa was one of 4 teams that finished tied for the Conference USA regular season title, largely due to their 8-game winning streak to close out the season. The Golden Hurricane woon two tough games against Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech to emerge with the automatic bid. Tulsa is not a good free throw shooting team (67.5% as a team, 253rd in the nation) which could haunt them in the Tournament.

6. Ohio St vs 11. Dayton

Buffalo, 12:15pm Thursday (CBS)

This game has gotten a lot of press as a "storyline" game that the Committee "Scripted" because of the close regional rivalry between the two schools. The Buckeyes have had an up and down year after starting 15-0, they finished just 8-8 in the second half of the season, but came back to win 2 close games in the Big 10 Tournament (including an 18-point comeback against Nebraska). Ohio State has talented players in Lenzelle Smith, LaQuinton Ross and Aaron Craft, but they aren't a very good shooting team (44.9% from the field, 138th in the nation). The Buckeyes do have one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking 4th in defensive efficiency and 12th in points against. This game will be a matchup of strength-on-strength and weakness-on-weakness as Dayton ranks in the top 30 in offensive efficiency but in the 100s in defensive efficiency. Dayton was a popular pick for the preseason A-10 Champion and looked the part with a 12-3 record in non-conference play. However, the Flyers fell flat to start their A-10 slate, going just 1-5 before rebounding for a 10-2 finish where their only losses came to eventual A-10 Tournament Champion St Joe's.

3. Syracuse vs 14. Western Michigan

Buffalo, 2:45pm Thursday (CBS)

The Orange are a hard team to project in the NCAA Tournament. For a large part of the season, they looked like the team to beat, starting the season with 25 straight wins before dropping 4 of 5, including home losses to Boston College and Georgia Tech and a 19-point loss at Maryland. In the ACC Tournament, the Orange were topped by a hot-shooting NC State team. The return of forward Jerami Grant to the lineup has been a boost for Syracuse as he went for 16 and 19 in two games after returning from injury. Syracuse is not a team that is going to blow anyone out and they have won a lot of games in the last minute this season. The Orange rank 253rd in the nation in scoring, but that is largely due to the slow-paced game that they play (ranking in the bottom 10 in the nation in tempo). Syracuse's matchup zone presents an incredibly difficult matchup for any team, especially in the second game of a weekend where there is only 1 day to prepare to attack it. This game should have a great matchup on the inside between Grant and Western Michigan big man Shayne Whittington (16.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG). The Broncos topped Toledo for the MAC title, led by senior guard David Brown's 32 points. Brown has averaged 19.4 points per game this season

7. New Mexico vs 10. Stanford

St Louis, 1:40pm Friday (TBS)

The Lobos generated a lot of buzz on the CBS Selection show as a team the analysts thought could go deep in the tournament. Everyone seems to be gushing over their Mountain West Tournament victory over San Diego State and thinks the Lobos have a chance to make a deep run in this tournament. What no one has mentioned is that New Mexico is one of the biggest historical chokers in the NCAA field (including last year's loss to 14-seeded Harvard) and has never reached the Sweet 16 in their entire history. The Lobos have good players like Cameron Baristow (20.3 PPG) but at the end of the day are really a poor man's Wisconsin (a bunch of giant gingers that can shoot from outside and rebound). This is a tough draw against a good Stanford team that features some absolute trees on the inside. Yes, that was a horrible pun. In all seriousness, Stanford's roster has 7 players listed as 6'9" or taller, including senior forwards Dwight Powell (14.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and Josh Huestis (11.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG). Stanford isn't a very deep team and has 4 players averaging over 30 minutes and no one else averaging more than 20.

2. Kansas vs 15. Eastern Kentucky

St Louis, 4:10pm Friday (TBS)

Kansas' ability to cut down the nets in 3 weeks will be determined by the health of freshman center Joel Embiid, but the Jayhawks are talented enough to run through the first weekend of the tournament without him. The Jayhawks have struggled defensively since Embiid was sat down, with losses to West Virginia and Iowa State where they gave up over 90 points and an overtime victory over Oklahoma State. The good news is that Andrew Wiggins is starting to play like the NBA lottery pick we know he will be, putting up 41, 30 and 22 in his last 3 outings. Kansas' offense is highly efficient and they rank in the top 40 in the nation in scoring, rebounds, assists and field goal percentage. Eastern Kentucky has won their last 7 games, including hard-faught victories over Murray State and Belmont in the Ohio Valley Tournament. This one is going to be a high-scoring affair as the Colonels rank 28th in the nation in offense (79 PPG). Eastern Kentucky also ranks 17th in the nation in free throw percentage (75.1%, the 7th best amongst the 68 teams in the field). If a mid-major team is going to pull off a gigantic upset, hitting their foul shots is a key. Eastern Kentucky lacks the size inside to match up with Kansas and will have to win on the wings where the Colonels shoot 39% from downtown (24th in the nation) and 49% as a whole from the field (11th in the nation). Neither of these teams are very good defensively and while Eastern Kentucky has the scoring talent to give Kansas a run, it is hard to see them ultimately pulling the upset.

2014 Final Bracket Projection

The time has come. In just under an hour the field of 68 will be revealed. Therefore, here is a look at my Final Bracket Projection. I'm lucky enough to be one of the 100+ bracketologists included in The Bracket Matrix.

For the most part, everyone is in agreement about the 67 of the 68 teams in the field. The only real question remains about the last team in the field, and the discussion has mostly centered around BYU and Southern Miss. However, I'm going out on a limb and not putting either team in my bracket. BYU just lost their best player (Kyle Collinsworth - the team's 2nd leading scorer, leading rebounder and leading in assists) to an ACL injury. Southern Miss doesn't have a great non-conference resume and while they have a resume that is similar to the one that got Middle Tennessee and Iona into the last two fields, I'm totally going against the grain of tradition with my Last Team In.

On the surface, most are discarding Green Bay because of their RPI (58). No mid-major has ever earned an At-Large bid with an RPI over 50, but looking at their resume, it stacks up very well. BYU has 4 losses outside the Top 100. Green Bay's worst loss (to Valpo) came without their best player (7-foot center Alec Brown) and the Phoenix have a huge win against Virgina and a pretty good non-conference slate, along with a winning record away from home. Therefore, against historical tradition, I'm putting Green Bay in as my Last Team In.

South Region

Orlando

1. Florida vs 16. Texas Southern/Cal Poly

8. George Washington vs 9. Gonzaga

San Diego

4. UCLA vs 13. Tulsa

5. North Carolina vs 12. Stephen F Austin

Raleigh

3. Louisville vs 14. Eastern Kentucky

6. VCU vs 11. Xavier/Tennessee

Milwaukee

2. Iowa St vs 15. NC Central

7. Ohio St vs 10. Providence

West Region

San Diego

1. Arizona vs 16. Weber St

8. Memphis vs 9. Kansas St

Spokane

4. Syracuse vs 13. Manhattan

5. San Diego St vs 12. Nebraska/Green Bay

San Antonio

3. Creighton vs 14. New Mexico St

6. Oklahoma vs 11. Southern Methodist

Milwaukee

2. Wisconsin vs 15. American

7. UMass vs 10. Colorado

Midwest Region

St Louis

1. Wichita St vs 16. Coastal Carolina/Mt St Mary's

8. Oregon vs 9. Pitt

Spokane

4. Michigan St vs 13. UL-Lafayette

5. UConn vs 12. North Dakota St

Orlando

3. Duke vs 14. Mercer

6. Kentucky vs 11. Dayton

St Louis

2. Kansas vs 15. Milwaukee

7. New Mexico vs 10. Iowa

East Region

Raleigh

1. Virginia vs 16. Albany

8. St Joseph's vs 9. Oklahoma St

San Antonio

4. Cincinnati vs 13. Delaware

5. Baylor vs 12. Harvard

Buffalo

3. Villanova vs 14. Western Michigan

6. St Louis vs 11. Arizona St

Buffalo

2. Michigan vs 15. Wofford

7. Texas vs 10. Stanford

First Four - Tuesday in Dayton

Nebraska vs Green Bay (winner to Spokane)
Texas Southern vs Cal Poly (winner to Orlando)

First Four - Wednesday in Dayton

Xavier vs Tennessee (winner to Raleigh)
Coastal Carolina vs Mt St Mary's (winner to St Louis)

Bids by conference: Big XII - 7, Pac-12 - 7, A-10 - 6, Big 10 - 6, ACC - 5, AAC - 5, Big East - 4, SEC - 3, MWC - 2, Horizon - 2

Highest RPI in the field: Iowa (RPI 57)

Lowest RPI left out: BYU (RPI 31)

Championship Week Bracketology

As the big conferences kick off their tournaments, here's a look at the bracket as I currently see it. There are some very slim margins between teams, so I provided a brief overview of everyone's resume with detailed resumes for the bubble teams so you can get a sense for how I came up with my rankings.

One note before I get into the bracketing part of the post. Since not all of the automatic bids are decided, I assumed the #1 seed (or highest remaining seed) from each conference tournament would earn the automatic bid. One effect of this was that Louisiana Tech became the auto bid from Conference USA, leaving Southern Miss (who has the best RPI of C-USA teams) to fend for themselves in the At-Large field. Since the Top 2 seeds in the MAC got double-byes to the semi-finals, I assumed Toledo as the MAC Champion. You can keep track of the teams that have secured automatic bids with my Conference Tournament Tracker.

So, without further ado, the #1 overall seed is...

This shouldn't come as much of a surprise to anyone. The Gators ran 18-0 through the SEC and are 29-2 on the year with no losses since December 2 and no losses outside the Top 30.

The three other #1 seeds shouldn't be much of a surprise aat this point. There are only 6 teams in the nation with 3 losses or less: Wichita St (0), Florida (2), Arizona (2), Stephen F Austin (2), Villanova (3), San Diego St (3). Of those 6, Stephen F Austin has a strength of schedule ranked in the 300s and San Diego State's is ranked in the 100s. Arizona's 17 wins against the Top 100 are the most in the nation and Wichita State's perfect record are enough to get them onto the top line. The fourth #1 seed is up for some discussion, but I gave the edge to Villanova over Kansas because the Wildcats have only 3 losses - all of them coming to Top 10 teams - while Kansas has dropped 8 games, including 5 to teams ranked outside the Top 30. Compare: Villanova vs Kansas.

2 seeds

While Kansas missed out on the last spot on the top line, they get one of the #2 seeds. The Jayhawks have more Top 50 wins than any other team in the nation, which is case enough for them to be considered near the top line. Despite Wisconsin and Michigan having losses outside the Top 100, the Badgers have the second-most Top 100 wins in the nation (16) and Michigan has the 4th most Top 50 wins (8) and Top 100 wins (13) in the nation. I gave the 4th spot to Iowa State with a slight edge over ACC Champion Virginia, but that could change depending on the result of the ACC Tournament. Virginia has just a .500 record against the Top 50 and is 6-2 against teams ranked 50-100 while Iowa State is 9-6 against the Top 50 and has just 1 loss outside the Top 50. Compare: Iowa St vs Virginia

3 seeds

I gave some consideration to each of these teams for the last spot on the #2 line as well, and this is very much a line in flux depending on the results of conference tournaments. Syracuse's 2 home losses to teams outside the Top 100 put them behind Virginia in my eyes, though Syracuse, Virigina or Duke could find their way to the 2 line if they win the ACC Tournament. Cincinnati played a bad out-of-conference schedule but hasn't lost a game outside of the Top 50 (one of only 5 teams with that distinction). Creighton got the edge over Duke for the last #3 seed because of more Top 100 wins (13 to 10) and less bad losses (Creighton lost 3 games to teams ranked 50-100 while Duke lost 1 to a team ranked 50-100 and 2 to teams ranked in the 100s). Compare: Creighton vs Duke

4 seeds

It might seem strange to see Duke seeded so low on my bracket considering that I am a Duke fan and that only 8 of the 99 brackets on The Bracket Matrix have Duke seeded lower than 3 and Joe Lunardi has them as a 2-seed. That said, their resume just doesn't hold up. They have more losses outside the top 100 than any of the 2-seeds (except Syracuse who has 5 more Top 100 wins) and more losses outside the Top 50 than any of the 2 seeds (except Creighton, which I discussed above). Therefore, Duke drops all the way to the 4 line on my bracket, though with an ACC Championship with wins over Clemson (RPI 77), Syracuse (RPI 10), and Virginia (RPI 12) or UNC (PRI 22), the Blue Devils could play their way up to a 2-seed. San Diego State finally finds their place on my bracket, despite only have 3 losses, their 1 loss to Wyoming and just 7 Top 100 wins (less than any of my other top 28 teams) caused them to slide a little. In SDSU's defense, they simply didn't have as many opportunities to pick up quality wins, playing less games against the Top 100 than any team I have seeded above a 12-seed. Louisville and Michigan St round out the 4-seeds with Sparty edging Oklahoma because they have not lost outside the Top 100.

5 seeds

Oklahoma got the benefit that many Big XII Teams got in my bracket because they simply played so many games against Top 50 teams. St Louis looked like the best team in the A-10 before mid-February when they dropped 4 of 5 games, including an inexplicable home loss to Duquesne, and slid back. Despite UNC's 3 losses outside the Top 100 (which all came early in the season), the Tar Heels have played their way up to the 5 line and could go higher if they win the ACC Tournament. I had a hard time deciding on the last 5-seed, but ultimately gave it to UCLA because they have a winning record against the Top 50 and only 1 loss outside the Top 100.

6 seeds

This is where the profiles start to get a little messy. Up until this point, 17 of the 20 teams had above-.500 records against the Top 50 and only UNC had more than 3 losses outside the Top 50. Of the remaining teams to be seeded, only UMass and Ohio State have above-.500 records against the Top 50, and they find themselves here on the 6-seed line. UConn and Texas also land here because of their lack of bad losses. Despite having losing records against the Top 50, the Huskies and Longhorns have only lost once outside the Top 50. Out of the remaining teams, only Memphis and Oklahoma State can make a similar claim, but both of those teams have losing records against the Top 100.

7 seeds

This might be the most unknown group in the whole bracket. Baylor and Oregon were borderline bubble teams a month ago while Kentucky was in the discussion for a top 3 seed. The Wildcats have fallen off while Baylor and Oregon have gone on incredible runs. Baylor played their way back to a .500 record against the Top 50 and their 8 wins are nothing to sneeze at. Similarly, VCU's .500 mark against the Top 50 is better than all but 3 of the remaining teams on my bracket. Even though Oregon and Kentucky are below .500 against the Top 50, their 11 and 12 wins against the Top 100 are more than any remaining teams. Of the remaining teams, only Gonzaga (10-4) and Colorado (10-10) have double-digit wins against the Top 100, which is a huge boost to Oregon and Kentucky.

8 seeds

It might be a bit of a surprise to find Iowa this low on my bracket, btu their resume is not nearly as good as their reputation this year. Even though the Hawkeyes have hovered around the Top 25 most of the season, they are just 4-8 against the Top 50 and are 2-3 against teams ranked 50-100, the first team in the field with a losing record in that segment of their resume. Their lack of losses outside the Top 100 is bouying up their tournament chances, but their non-conference schedule was awful and a bad loss in the Big 10 tournament could send the Hawkeyes into questionable territory. George washington and Memphis should be safely in the field at this point, but can both help themselves by stacking wins in their conference tournaments. Memphis has only played 1 game against teams ranked 50-100 so their sub-.500 record against Top 50 teams carried over to their Top 100 record, but the fact is the Tigers have onl ylost once to a team ranked outside the Top 50. New Mexico gets the last spot on the 8-seed line, which might be a bit low for them but the weakness of the Mountain West this year hurt the Lobos.

9 seeds

Oklahoma State is the hardest team to seed. They have only lost once outside the Top 50 (to Texas Tech, the game Marcus Smart was thrown out of) and they dropped all 3 games when Smart was suspended. If you take those 3 games out of consideration, the Cowboys are 5-7 against the Top 50 and 8-7 aginst the Top 100, which are both respectable. Ultimately, I think the Pokes will land somewhere in the middle but could be an incredibly dangerous matchup for a #1 seed in the second round. Gonzaga has the best record against the Top 100 of any remaining team, but their 2 bad losses sunk them below some of the teams above them in my eyes. Southern Methodist and Kansas State have the albatross of losses to teams with sub-200 RPIs that are dragging down their profiles. Kansas State benefits from the Big XII schedule and could be seeded higher because of their 7 Top 50 wins and .500 record against the Top 50.

10 seeds

Colorado is an incredibly hard team to seed because most of their big wins came early in the season before leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddle was injured. After Dinwiddle's injury against Washington (Colorado's worst loss of the season), the Buffs were 7-7 with a 2-5 mark against the Top 50. Their bad losses came at Utah and an overtime loss to California (who is on the bubble). I think the 2 Top 50 wins and only 2 losses outside the Top 50 (none outside the Top 100) without Dinwiddle is good enough to get Colorado in. Pitt has plummeted down the bracket since mid-January. The Panthers played a terrible non-conference schedule and were 1-7 against ACC teams in the Top 70 since mid-January. Pitt's best win is over Stanford (RPI 44) but they also haven't lost to a team outside the Top 70 which will likely be enough to get them in (barely, barring an upset in the ACC Tournament). No one on the bubble has more than 4 wins against the Top 50 or 9 wins against the Top 100, which was enough to put Arizona State in the field for me. Despite Stanford having a 4-8 mark against the Top 50, they are the only remaining team without a loss outside the Top 100, which gives them the edge over the remaining teams for the last spot on the 10 line. As an interesting aside, you might be saying "But Ian, Iowa had a 4-8 record against the Top 50 and a losing record against 50-100 teams and you seeded them a lot higher?" Well, when you look at their resumes side-by-side you see that Iowa has 2 wins better than Stanford's best win and all 8 of Iowa's Top 50 losses were to teams ranked in the Top 25 while Stanford has lost 5 games to teams ranked 25th-50th. Compare: Iowa vs Stanford

The Bubble

With the top 40 teams in the field and 21 conference champions from one-bid leagues that will be seeded at the bottom of the bracket, this leaves 7 spots to be decided amongst "bubble" teams.

As things currently stand, I have 14 teams sitting on the bubble battling over the last 7 spots in the field. Three of these teams will get "byes" and not have to play in the First Four play-in game while the "Last Four In" will have to play in a play-in game. The 14 teams are Arkansas, BYU, California, Dayton, Florida St, Georgetown, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Providence, Southern Miss, St Joseph's, Tennessee, and Xavier. Every team except Southern Miss (1-1) and Arkansas (3-3) is below .500 against the Top 50. Georgetown has the most Top 50 wins (5) but is just 2-4 against teams ranked 50-100 and has 3 losses outside the Top 100, including the worst loss of the group (Northeastern - RPI 218). At this point, Georgetown's bad losses are simply too much to overcome and knock them out of consideration.

Only 2 teams - Dayton and BYU have winning records against the Top 100, but those are offset by bad losses (Dayton has dropped 3 games to teams ranked outside the Top 100 while BYU has dropped 4). Dayton, along with St Joe's and California are the only teams on the bubble with 4 wins against the Top 50. Along with the most Top 50 wins of the group, St Joe's and Cal only have 1 loss outside the Top 100 (along with Florida St and Providence). These factors are enough to give St. Joe's, Dayton and Cal a slight edge in my eyes, so I am comfortable adding them to the field as the last 3 teams to get "byes" on the 11-seed line.

This leaves us with 10 teams fighting over the remaining 4 spots in the field. While there are no easy decisions at this point, some have to be made. Missouri has a staggering 5 losses to teams ranked 50-100 and 2 more to teams ranked in the 100s. The Tigers best win is over UCLA (RPI 27) and there simply isn't enough there for me to put them in the field. While Providence has only lost once outside the Top 100, they are 4-4 against teams ranked 50-100 and have just 1 win over a Top 45 team. The Friars best road/neutral court win is over St John's (RPI 58).

(click to enlarge)

Since everyone loves the "Last 4 In/First 4 Out" designation, I broke it down similarly. I knocked Florida State out becasue of their 2-4 record against record against the Top 100 specifically 2-4 mark against teams ranked 50-100. Minnesota had some of the best wins of the group and played a tough non-conference schedule but was the only remaining team with a losing record against the Top 100 and had the worst road/neutral win of any team. Despite losing 3 games outside the Top 100, I put Nebraska in because of their good wins and because they only lost once to teams ranked 50-100. Similarly, BYU was the only team with a winning record against the Top 100, which coupled with a top 10 Non-Conference schedule was enough to get the Cougars in the field. Xavier has two of the best wins of anyone remaining, which gives them an edge over Tennessee and Arkansas. Tennessee has great computer numbers but their 4 losses outside the Top 100, including a sweep by Texas A&M are frightening. Arkansas' bad non-conference schedule haunts their resume and their poor record away from home (4-8 in road/neutral games) offsets their sweep of Kentucky. Nothing on Southern Miss' resume aside from their RPI really inspires confidence, but they have the profile of a mid-major team that the Committee has let sneak into the field the last few years. Here's a look at the Last 4 In from the last two seasons:

2012 Last 4 In

2013 Last 5 In

Southern Miss has a resume that could be seen as comparable, if not better than the resume that got Middle Tennessee in last year. I know that resumes each year are looked at in isolation, but with an RPI in the Top 35, Southern Miss fits the bill right now as a last team from a mid-major league in that causes people to raise their eyebrows.

There have been a lot of questions flying around about Green Bay lately. Simply put, I will be stunned if Green Bay is included in the field. The Phoenix do have a win over Virginia, but that is their only win in the Top 90 and they have 3 losses outside the Top 100. On top of that, Green Bay has an RPI of 62 which would truly be an unprecedented move for the Committee to include them in the field. In the last 6 years, the lowest-ranked Mid-Major to be included in the field was BYU (RPI 48) in 2012. In the last 6 years only 9 of 21 mid-major teams (43%) with RPIs in the 40s were given At-Large bids and none with an RPI over 50 were given a spot in the field. This does bode well for Southern Miss (RPI 35) and Toledo (RPI 36) should they fail to win their conference tournaments.

Bracketing

Now that we have our 68 teams comes the fun part of putting them into a bracket.

South Region
Orlando
1. Florida vs 16. Coastal Carolina/Alabama St
8. George Washington vs 9. Southern Methodist
Spokane
4. Michigan St vs 13. Stephen F Austin
5. Oklahoma vs 12. Harvard
Orlando
3. Virginia vs 14. Eastern Kentucky
6. UMass vs 11. Xavier/BYU
Milwaukee
2. Iowa St vs 15. UC-Irvine
7. Oregon vs 10. Pitt

West Region
San Diego
1. Arizona vs 16. Mt St Mary's/Weber St
8. New Mexico vs 9. Gonzaga
San Diego
4. Louisville vs 13. Manhattan
5. St Louis vs 12. North Dakota St
Buffalo
3. Syracuse vs 14. Georgia St
6. Texas vs 11. Dayton
Buffalo
2. Michigan vs 15. American
7. Kentucky vs 10. Arizona St

Midwest Region
St Louis
1. Wichita St vs 16. Stony Brook
8. Iowa vs 9. Oklahoma St
Spokane
4. San Diego St vs 13. Louisiana Tech
5. North Carolina vs 12. Toledo
San Antonio
3. Creighton vs 14. Mercer
6. UConn vs 11. California
Milwaukee
2. Wisconsin vs 15. Utah Valley
7. Baylor vs 10. Stanford

East Region
Raleigh
1. Villanova vs 16. Wofford
8. Memphis vs 9. Kansas St
San Antonio
4. Duke vs 13. Delaware
5. UCLA vs 12. Nebraska/Southern Miss
Raleigh
3. Cincinnati vs 14. NC Central
6. Ohio St vs 11. St Joe's
St Louis
2. Kansas vs 15. Milwaukee
7. VCU vs 10. Colorado

First Four - Tuesday in Dayton
California vs Nebraska
Coastal Carolina vs Alabama St
First Four - Wednesday in Dayton
Southern Miss vs Xavier
Stony Brook vs Weber St

Bids by conference: Big XII - 7, Pac-12 - 7, A-10 - 6, Big 10 - 6, ACC - 5, AAC - 5, Big East - 3, SEC - 2, MWC - 2, WCC - 2, C-USA - 2
Highest RPI in the field: California (RPI 55)
Lowest RPI left out: Tennessee (RPI 43)