2014 Conference Tournament Preview Part 2

The second week of Conference Tournament action is upon us. With the first set of tournament drawing to a close, stay up to date on who has locked up their place in the field with our Conference Tournament Tracker page. Also, if you're so inclined, check out my projected NCAA Tournament Bracket.

AAC

March 12-15

Memphis, TN

Top Seeds: Cincinnati, Louisville

Sleeper: Memphis

Tournament Format: All 10 teams make the tournament, bottom 4 play in 2 play-in games

Recent History: This is the first year of the AAC's existence, but many of these teams have history with each other dating back to the Big East and/or Conference USA.

Preview: Cincinnati and Louisville have been the dominant teams this year, tying for the conference title. Cincinnati got the top seed thanks to a coin flip. UConn, Memphis and SMU all finished 3 games back and all 5 are locks for the NCAA Tournament and no one in the bottom half of the league is in contention for an At-Large bid. Cincinnati has the best defense in the league and features one of the best clutch players in the nation in Sean Kilpatrick (20.9 PPG). Louisville has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, averaging nearly 82 points per game. Memphis has only lost twice at home all season and should be able to get a boost from the home crowd to carry them through the tournament.

ACC

March 12-16

Greensboro, NC

Top Seeds: Virginia, Syracuse

Sleeper: NC State

Tournament Format: All 15 teams qualify, top 4 get double-byes to quarterfinals, teams 5-8 get byes to second round

Recent History: The ACC Tournament has been won by one of the top 3 seeds each of the last 6 years. The last time an ACC Championship did not feature either Duke or North Carolina was 1996. Since 1975, Duke and UNC have faced each other in more Championship Games (9) than games which did not feature either team (3).

Preview: The ACC is a strange disparity of styles this season. According to KenPom.com, 7 ACC teams rank in the bottom 51 in the nation in Offensive Tempo while 7 rank in the top 51 in Offensive Efficiency. The ACC features some of the best scorers in the nation in NC State's TJ Warren (24.8 PPG), Clemson's KJ McDaniels (17.2 PPG), UNC's Marcus Paige (17.1 PPG), Duke's Jabari Parker (19.2 PPG) and Rodney Hood (16.9 PPG), and Syracuse's CJ Fair (16.9 PPG). Virginia played one of the easiest conference schedules and won the conference by two games, losing only to Duke and Maryland. Syracuse ran off 25 straight wins to start the season but hit a bit of a roadbump when forward Jerami Grant was injured, but looked dominant when he returned this weekend against Florida State. The Cuse zone presents an incredibly difficult matchup for teams in a conference tournament format where there is limited time to prepare. Duke has the most offensively explosive team in the league but has suffered some bizarre road losses (Wake Forest, Clemson) when their offense went cold. Until their loss at Duke, UNC was the hottest team in the conference. Don't count out NC State and sensational sophomore TJ Warren who went for 41 and 42 this past week.

Atlantic 10

March 12-16

Brooklyn, NY

Top Seeds: St Louis, VCU

Sleeper: Dayton

Tournament Format: All 13 teams qualify, Top 4 get byes to the quarterfinals while the bottom 2 teams play-in.

Recent History: A team receiving a bye (Top 4 seed) has won the A-10 tournament each of the last 6 years.

Preview: St Louis started conference play with 12 straight wins, but dropped 3 of their last 4 to barely hang on to the conference title. The Billikens were not dominant in their victories - only 3 of their 13 conference wins were by more than 8  points. VCU and their HAVOC defense will create problems in the loaded bottom half of the bracket, which will likely feature 3 NCAA Tournament teams. George Washington has had a surprisingly solid season and is essentially a lock for the NCAA Tournament, along with 6th-seeded UMass, who features the league's best offense. Dayton has won 9 of their last 10 and is one of the hottest teams in the league heading into tournament play. The Flyers are sitting right on the bubble and could be the A-10's 6th team in the Big Dance, which would give them more than the SEC, Big East and AAC. The winner of the Dayton-St Joe's quarterfinal will essentially lock up a spot in the field while the loser will be sweating out a spot on Selection Sunday.

Big East

March 12-15

New York, NY

Top Seeds: Villanova, Creighton

Sleeper: Georgetown

Tournament Format: All 10 teams qualify, 2 play-in games

Recent History: This is the first year of the "New Big East" so any previous history can mostly be thrown out the window.

Preview: Villanova and Creighton dominated the league this season and are the only surefire locks to make the NCAA Tournament. Providence, Xavier, St John's and Georgetown have all flirted with the bubble but all of them need to do work in the Big East Tournament to state their case. Villanova is in contention for the 4th #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but will likely have to get through their nemesis - Creighton - in order to get there. The Blue Jays, led by National Player of the Year Candidate (though who am I kidding, he's going to win it) Doug McDermott absolutely blew Villanova out by 28 in Philadelphia and by 21 in Omaha. The Big East Tournament will essentially be a series of bubble knockout games as everyone's resume needs help.

Big Sky

March 13-15

Ogden, UT

Top Seeds: Weber St, North Dakota

Sleeper: Montana

Tournament Format: 7 of the 11 conference teams make the tournament and the top seed receives the only bye. The Regular Season Champion hosts the tournament. Teams are re-seeded after the first round so that the #1 seed plays the lowest advancing seed.

Recent History: Montana has won 3 of the last 4 Big Sky Tournaments and has appeared in 4 straight championship games.

Preview: Weber St and Montana have represented the Big Sky in 8 of the last 12 NCAA Tournaments and is one of the best small conference rivalries going. This is helped in large part by Montana defeating Weber St in 4 of the last 9 Championship Games. Two time defending tournament MVP Kareem Jamar leads Montana into the Big Sky Tournament, which will be hosted by Weber St, the regular season champs. Because Montana dropped their last game, they are seeded 4th in the conference tournament and could wind up facing their rivals in the semi-finals rather than facing off in the championship game for the 3rd straight year. Montana will have to deal with Portland State in the first round, who has taken them to overtime in both meetings this season, including a Triple-Overtime affair in mid-January. Weber St no slouch either, led by Davion Berry (19.2 PPG, 4.0 APG). The Big Sky is always a wide open tournament after a tight regular season where only 2 games separated 2nd place North Dakota from 8th place Eastern Washington (who lost out on a tiebreaker and did not make the Big Sky Tournament).

Big Ten

March 13-16

Indianapolis, IN

Top Seeds: Michigan, Wisconsin

Sleeper: Iowa

Tournament Format: All 12 teams qualify, top 4 receive byes

Recent History: The last 12 Big Ten tournaments have been won by a team receiving a bye and all but 1 of those 12 was won by one of the top 2 seeds.

Preview: The Big 10 tournament has produced some incredible runs to the conference championship games, including 6th seeded Penn St (2011) and Minnesota (2010), 8th seeded Ohio State (2003), 9th seeded Iowa (2002), and 10th seeded Illinois (2008), but these teams have always fallen in the title game to one of the top two seeds. This year's best "surprise" candidate for a deep run is likely Iowa whose 82.6 PPG is 6th best in the nation. The most surprising team might be Nebraska, whose upset win over Wisconsin propelled the Huskers to the 4th bye in the Big 10 Tournament. Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St, Ohio St and Iowa should be safely in the field heading into Indianapolis while Nebraska likely needs to avoid an upset and Minnesota needs a deep run as the Gophers are sitting right in the middle of the bubble. Michigan might be the quietest conference champion the Big 10 despite winning the league by 3 games. Michigan State looked like one of the best teams in the nation before a rash of injuries and Sparty stumbled to a 4-6 finish.

Big XII

March 12-15

Kansas City, MO

Top Seeds: Kansas, Oklahoma

Sleeper: Baylor

Tournament Format: All 10 teams qualify, 2 play-in games

Recent History: Kansas has won 6 of the last 8 Big XII Tournaments. Since the inception of the Big XII in 1997, no one seeded lower than 3rd in the conference tournament has won the title.

Preview: There should be no doubt that the Big XII is one of the best conferences in the nation. Seven of the 10 teams rank in the Top 50 in the RPI and only 3 games separated 2nd place from 7th place. Kansas is in the conversation for a #1 seed in the Big Dance thanks to their best-in-the-nation 12 Top 50 wins and 16 Top 100 wins. The biggest question for the Jayhawks will be the health of Joel Ebiid, who gives them a commanding presence on the inside. Freshman sensation Andrew Wiggins is one of the most explosive players in the country and could state his case as the potential #1 pick in the NBA Draft. Iowa State is an incredibly talented team that could go deep in the NCAA Tournament and Baylor is probably the hottest team in the league right now, winning 7 of their last 8. Oklahoma State is a bit of an enigma as to where they will land in the Big Dance because it is unknown how the Committee will treat the 3 games they lost without star guard Marcus Smart. Since Smart's return, the Cowboys won 4 of 5 with a win over Kansas and the only loss coming in overtime to Iowa State. It is only fitting that the Cowboys draw Texas Tech in the Big XII Tournament as an ultimate stage for Marcus Smart to enact his revenge.

Big West

March 13-15

Anaheim, CA

Top Seeds: UC-Irvine, UC-Santa Barbara

Sleeper: Hawaii

Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify, normal bracket

Recent History: 4 of the last 5 Big West Tournament Champions have received a #15 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Preview: If there is one thing the Big West should be known for, it is having some of the bests nicknames in the country. The top-seeded UC-Irvine Anteaters (yes, Anteaters) have never made the NCAA Tournament since joining Division 1 in 1977. They have been neck-in-neck with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (ohh yeah) all season. Perennial powerhouse Long Beach State is hovering in third after a 4-10 start to the season, they went 10-6 in conference play. The Gauchos have one of the most dominant players in the conference in forward Alan Williams (21.6 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 2.4 BPG). Williams is second in the nation in rebounds per game. The Gauchos and Anteaters split their regular season meetings and we can only hope, just for the sake of hearing those nicknames some more, that we get a rubber match in the conference championship.

Conference USA

March 11-15

El Paso, TX

Top Seeds: Louisiana Tech, Tulsa

Sleeper: UTEP

Tournament Format: 15 teams qualify (FIU ineligible). Top 4 teams get byes to quarterfinals and there are 3 play-in games.

Recent History: Memphis won 7 of the last 8 tournaments but they have moved on to the AAC. The only current member to win a C-USA conference tournament was Charlotte (1999, 2001).

Preview: It has been a wild year at the top of Conference USA. Four teams tied atop the conference standings with 13-3 records while UTEP finished just 1 game back. Louisiana Tech got the top seed thanks to their head-to-head records against Tulsa, Middle Tennessee and Southern Miss. Southern Miss is the only team in the league with a chance for an At-Large bid, and they got the short end of the stick with the #4 seed in the tournament which likely means they will have to play UTEP and Louisiana Tech just to get to the Championship.

MAC

March 10, 12-15

Cleveland, OH

Top Seeds: Western Michigan, Toledo

Sleeper: Akron

Tournament Format: All 12 teams qualify, top 2 get triple-byes to semi-finals, 3rd & 4th seeds get double-bye to the quarterfinals

Recent History: Ohio and Akron have alternated winning the last 5 MAC Tournaments. Akron's championship last year was the first time a top seed had won the MAC Tournament since 2008.

Preview: Toledo has looked like the team to beat for most of the season, but a head-to-head split with Western Michigan gave the Broncos the top seed in the conference tournament. Toledo has one of the best offenses in the nation, averaging over 80 points per game thanks to a triumverate of scorers that all average over 14 PPG. The Rockets have lost only 4 times all season which could make them a candidate for an At-Large bid if they fall in the MAC Tournament, but they have only played 1 team ranked in the Top 80 this season (Kansas), which makes for a hard case to include them in the field. The MAC has been highly competitve at the top this year with 6 teams winning more than 10 conference games. Toledo is in search of their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1980 and could meet 3rd-seeded Buffalo (who has never appeared in the NCAA Tournament) in the semi-finals. Fourth-seeded Akron returns the reigning MAC Tournament MVP in Demetrius Treadwell (14.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG). Fifth seeded Ohio has the hardest road as they have to play in the first round and will have to win 4 games just to get to the Championship Game while the top seeds only have to win once and Buffalo and Akron only need to win twice.

MEAC

March 10-15

Norfolk, VA

Top Seeds: NC Central, Hampton

Sleeper: Florida A&M

Tournament Format: All 13 teams qualify, top 3 receive byes

Recent History: Morgan St has appeared in 5 of the last 6 MEAC Championship Games. The MEAC has produced 3 of the 7 #15 seeds that have toppled #2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

Preview: North Carolina Central has been an absolute force in conference play, posting a 15-1 record and carrying a 17-game winning streak into the MEAC Tournament. The Eagles started playing D1 Basketball in 2007 and are looking for their first ever apperance in the Big Dance. If they are going to successfully navigate the MEAC Tournament, they will need big performances from Jeremy Ingram (20.2 PPG). Second place Hampton has won 7 in a row and 9 of their last 10 but was swept this season by Morgan State, the #3 seed in the tournament who has a history of Championship Game appearances.

Mountain West

March 12-15

Las Vegas, NV

Top Seeds: San Diego St, New Mexico

Sleeper: Boise St

Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify, 3 play-in games

Recent History: San Diego St and New Mexico have won the last 4 Mountain West Tournaments

Preview: San Diego St and New Mexico dominated the conference all season and are the only two teams with At-Large potential. Both teams are essentially locks for the NCAA Tournament and with no other Mountain West teams even in the bubble conversation, this tournament is really only about whether or not a bid will be stolen by another team or if we will get a rubber match between the Aztecs and the Lobos. The first two games were defensive struggles with the home team winning both times.

Pac 12

March 12-15

Las Vegas, NV

Top Seeds: Arizona, UCLA

Sleeper: Oregon

Tournament Format: All 12 teams qualify, Top 4 get byes

Recent History: The winner of the 3-6 quarterfinal has won the Pac-12 Tournament each of the past 5 years.

Preview: Arizona has been one of the most dominant teams in the nation this year and is almost a lock for a #1 seed in the Big Dance and possibly in contention for the #1 overall seed if they win the Pac-12 tournament and Florida falls in the SEC Tournament. Outside of Arizona and UCLA, no one else is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Arizona State, California, Colorado, Stanford and Oregon are all hovering around the bubble which will set up some big quarterfinal matchups in the Pac-12 tournament. All 5 of those teams finished at 10-8 in conference play and the seeding was broken by tiebreakers, causing Oregon to fall all the way to the #7 seed. The Ducks are the hottest team in the conference, winners of their last 7 games (including wins over UCLA and Arizona) and boast the league's best offense (82.3 PPG, 9th in nation). Colorado needs to avoid being upset in the tournament and continues to battle to prove they are an NCAA-caliber team without Spencer Dinwiddle. Cal, Stanford and Arizona State are all hovering around the right side of the bubble but none of them have a fool-proof resume.

SEC

March 12-16

Atlanta, GA

Top Seeds: Florida, Kentucky

Sleeper: LSU

Tournament Format: All 14 teams qualify, top 4 get byes and bottom 4 play in 2 play-in games

Recent History: The #3 seed has won the SEC Tournament each of the last 3 years.

Preview: It has been a crazy year in the SEC. Florida ran away from the pack with a perfect 18-0 conference record and will be the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament if they cut down the nets in Atlanta. Kentucky has dropped a number of games to inferior opponents but is still the second best team in the league and the only other team that is a sure lock for the NCAA Tournament. Outside of those two, the SEC Standings are a who's who of who is on the bubble. Third-seeded Georgia lacks the resume to be considered an At-Large team (no Top 50 wins, 5 losses outside the Top 100). Fourth-seeded Tennessee has the computer numbers of an At-Large team (RPI 44, SOS 25, NCSOS 43) but has just 2 Top 50 wins and has lost 4 games outside the Top 100. Arkansas has a sweep of Kentucky on their resume, but also has their share of bad losses, including a 25-point loss to Alabama in the season finale, which dropped them back onto the bubble. Missouri and LSU also spent time in the bubble conversation this year, but their inability to win games away from home (a problem persistent across the entire SEC) put a big hole in their chances. Every SEC team was at least 3 games below .500 on the road except for Florida (10-2 on the road) and Kentucky (5-5 on the road).

Southland

March 12-15

Katy, TX

Top Seeds: Stephen F Austin, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

Sleeper: Northwestern State

Tournament Format: 8 of 11 eligible teams qualify (3 were inelligible). Top 2 seeds receive double-byes to semi-finals, 3rd & 4th seeds receive bye to quarterfinals.

Recent History: 6 different teams have won the Southland Tournament in the last 6 years. Interestingly the #1 seed has won as many tournaments as the #7 seed (2) over that timespan.

Preview: Stephen F Austin is one of only 3 teams in the nation with less than 3 losses entering conference tournament play. The Lumberjacks were a perfect 18-0 against the Southland Conference this year, riding a defense that surrendered just 62.6 PPG. Unfortunately for the Lumberjacks, their strength of schedule ranks 324th out of 351 Division 1 teams, which is not good enough for them to qualify as an At-Large team should they fall in the Southland Tournament. The team to watch is Northwestern State, who started the season 2-7 in non-conference play. The defending tournament champions rebounded to win 11 of their last 13 games and finish 4th in the conference, which puts them on track for a semi-final showdown with Stephen F Austin. There is no bigger contrast in styles between these two. Northwestern State ranks 2nd in the nation in scoring (86.9 PPG) and 1st in Tempo while Stephen F Austin ranks 293rd in Tempo

Summit

March 8-11

Sioux Falls, SD

Top Seeds: North Dakota St, IPFW

Sleeper: Denver

Tournament Format: All 7 eligible teams qualify, Nebraska-Omaha is ineligible due to Division 1 transition

Recent History: The top seed has won 5 of the last 6 Summit League Tournaments

Preview: The Summit League has produced Champions that have been seeded at the higher end of one-bid league teams. The Summit Champion has received a 13th or 14th seed each of the last 6 seasons. This year, North Dakota State has the profile to be seeded in that range again should they emerge from Sioux Falls victorious. This tournament actually started over the weekend, so I'm a little late in including it in my previews. The first round games have already happened so only the top 4 teams remain. The IPFW Mastadons (what a nickname!) are the #2 seed and in search of their first NCAA Tournament bid in school history while third-seeded South Dakota State is looking for their third straight Summit League title. North Dakota State has the computer profile (RPI 38, SOS 125, NCSOS 17) that could garner them At-Large consideration should they fall in the Summit Tournament, though they lack a win against a team in the Top 75 and have 3 losses to Sub-100 teams.

Sun Belt

March 13-16

New Orleans, LA

Top Seeds: Georgia State, Western Kentucky

Sleeper: Arkansas St

Tournament Format: Top 8 qualify, top 2 seeds get double-bye to semi-finals, #3 and #4 seeds get byes to quarterfinals

Recent History: Western Kentucky has won 4 of the last 6 Sun Belt Tournaments. The #1 seed has only won the Sun Belt once in the last 6 years.

Preview: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have absolutely owned the Sun Belt Tournament, regardless of their regular season success. In the last two seasons, the Hilltoppers won the Sun Belt after finishing 7th and 6th in the conference. This has made for great fun in the Mascot Bracket but also caused some sweaty Selection Sundays. Last year, regular season champion Middle Tennessee was lucky enough to get one of the last 4 At-Large spots in the NCAA field, but Georgia State lacks the resume to get the same benefit this season. The Panthers only lost once in conference play this year, but had two close calls against #4 seed Arkansas State (a 1-point win at home and an OT win on the road), who they will likely face in the semi-finals. Georgia State has two of the best scorers in the conference in RJ Hunter (18.5 PPG) and Ryan Harrow (17.2 PPG).

SWAC

March 11-15

Houston, TX

Top Seeds: Southern, Texas Southern

Sleeper: Everyone in the SWAC, through their classes, apparently

Tournament Format: All 10 teams will play, despite 4 teams being ineligible for post-season play. If an ineligible team wins the tournament, the furthest-advancing eligible team will earn the automatic bid.

Recent History: The SWAC Champion has been a 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament ever year since 2000. Considering all Tournament-eligible SWAC teams are ranked in the bottom 100 of the RPI, this will be the 15th straight year the SWAC Champion was given a 16-seed.

Preview: What a mess. Four SWAC teams are ineligible for postseason play because of academic penalties, including regular season champion Southern. Rather than hold a tournament with just 6 teams, the SWAC received special exemption from the NCAA to allow their ineligible teams to participate in the conference tournament. Three of the four are in the top half of the bracket which puts Alabama A&M in the difficult position of likely having to beat two ineligibles just to get to the conference championship game and have a shot at the bid. On the other side, the semi-final will likely feature two eligible teams (as long as Grambling doesn't advance from the Play-In Game) and could be the deciding game for the NCAA Tournament bid if Southern and/or Arkansas-Pine Bluff reach the finals from the top half of the bracket.

WAC

March 13-15

Las Vegas, NV

Top Seeds: Utah Valley, New Mexico St

Sleeper: Idaho

Tournament Format: 8 eligible teams qualify, normal bracket. Grand Canyon is ineligible because of transitional period into Division 1.

Recent History: New Mexico State has won 3 of the last 4 WAC Tournaments

Preview: How far the WAC has fallen after being devastated by conference re-alignment. New Mexico State is still the highest ranked team from the conference, while top-seeded Utah Valley has an RPI in the 130s. The shame of this tournament is that the nation's leading rebounder, Grand Canyon's Killian Larson, will not participate because of the school's D1 Transition Probation. All signs point to a rubber match between Utah Valley and New Mexico State, which would certainly be a story in and of itself after the last game ended with New Mexico State players throwing punches at Utah Valley fans that stormed the court.

2014 Conference Tournament Preview Part 1

While the major conferences are wrapping up their regular seasons this week, some of the smaller conferences tip off their Conference Tournaments and the quest to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament begins. Of the conferences starting tournaments this week, only the Missouri Valley (with Wichita St) and the West Coast Conference (with Gonzaga) have the opportunity to be multi-bid leagues if the favorites do not win the tournament.

America East

March 8-9, 15

Albany, NY

Top Seeds: Vermont, Stony Brook

Sleeper: Albany

Tournament Format: 8 teams in a normal bracket.

Recent History: The top seed has not won the America East Tournament since 2009. Vermont has won 2 of the last 4 tournaments. The America East Conference Champion has not received a seed higher than 15th in the NCAA Tournament since 2007.

Preview: Stony Brook has never made the NCAA Tournament, but has been knocking at the door since 2009. The Sea Wolves were the top seed in 3 of the last 4 tournaments and have reached the finals twice. This year, Vermont has been the team to beat, suffering only 1 loss in conference play (to Stony Brook). The Catamounts are led by senior forward Brian Voelkel who is second in the conference in rebounding and leads the conference in assists. Two years ago, Voelkel was named the Most Outstanding Player of the America East Tournament and looks to lead the Catamounts to their third consecutive championship game. Vermont has played stifling defense in conference play, holding opponents to under 52 points per game while scoring almost 73. Albany is the defending champions and is hosting the tournament, so don't count out the Great Danes with the home crowd behind them.

Atlantic Sun

March 4-9

Higher Seed Hosts Game

Top Seeds: Florida Gulf Coast, Mercer

Sleeper: Lipscomb

Tournament Format: Top 8 teams in the conference play in an 8-team bracket with no byes.

Recent History: The Atlantic Sun has seen a lot of turnover in membership and last year marked only the third time since 1985 that one of the current programs in the conference won the conference tournament. Florida Gulf Coast (aka "Dunk City") captured the nation in their run to the Sweet 16 as a 15-seed in the Big Dance.

Preview: Dunk City is back. Only 2 of their top 9 players graduated last year and the Eagles are ready to make another run at the NCAA Tournament. Mercer will likely be their biggest challenge. The Bears have been neck-in-neck with them all season and are looking for their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1985. Mercer has both the best offense and best defense in the conference, scoring nearly 80 points per game and are 41st in the nation in 3-point shooting. The Bears did lose twice to North Florida, which could present a dangerous second round matchup for them. Lipscomb is the #5 seed but has won 4 straight games heading into the tournament, including a win over top-seeded Florida Gulf Coast.

Big South

March 5, 7-9

Conway, SC

Top Seeds: High Point, Coastal Carolina

Sleeper: Radford (though really, everyone)

Tournament Format: Top 2 in each division get byes, teams are matched up across divisions based on order of finish

Recent History: The Big South Champion has been a 16-seed every year since 2008. Liberty won the tournament from the #10 seed last year, making them the lowest seeded team in any conference tournament to emerge victorious in the last 5 years.

Preview: The Big South was a wild conference this year. Every time you turned around, there was a new team atop the conference standings. 7 of the 12 teams enter the conference tournament with 10 or more conference wins, while the other 5 all have 6 or less. High Point is the hottest team in the conference, winning their last 6 games to shoot to the top of the conference standings. VMI plays at one of the fastest tempos in the nation and is the highest scoring team in the nation at 88.5 points per game. Radford is the only team in the entire conference with a winning record away from home. South Division Champion Coastal Carolina has the best defense in the league. Winthrop, Gardner-Webb and UNC-Asheville also finished 10-6 which should make for a wild tournament where any team could emerge victorious. Even though the winner will almost certainly head to a Play-In Game in the NCAA Tournament, this could be one of the best small conference tournaments with so many teams bunched at the top of the league.

Colonial

March 7-10

Baltimore

Top Seeds: Delaware, Towson

Sleeper: Drexel

Tournament Format: 9 teams, the 8th and 9th place teams play a play-in game, followed by a normal bracket

Recent History: One of the top 3 seeds has won the last 6 conference tournaments.

Preview: If current trends continue in the CAA, someone's streak will come to an end. Delaware has not made the big Dance since 1999, Towson since 1991 and third place William & Mary has never reached the NCAA Tournament. Delaware has the best offense in the league, averaging over 79 points per game, which is good enough for 26th nationally. Towson, who just two years ago posted one of the worst seasons in Division 1 history at 1-31, has the best defense in the league and split the season series with the Fightin' Blue Hens. Towson will open the tournament against defending champion James Madison and is led by the nation's leading rebounder Jerrelle Benimon. After a strong showing in the Preseason NIT where they finished 3rd and almost knocked off Arizona in the semi-finals, hopes were high for Drexel, but they have cooled off in conference play.

Horizon

March 4-11

Higher Seed Hosts Game

Top Seeds: Green Bay, Cleveland State

Sleeper: Wright State

Tournament Format: 9 teams with the top 2 receiving double-byes to the semi-finals and the #3 seed receiving a bye to the quarter finals.

Recent History: 4 of the last 6 Horizon League tournaments have been won by a team that earned a double-bye in the tournament. No one outside the top 3 seeds have made the championship game since 2002.

Preview: Green Bay has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 1996 but ran through the Horizon League in impressive fashion, going 14-2 in league play. The Phoenix are led by junior guard Keifer Sykes who is 17th in the nation in scoring, averaging 20.4 points per game. Green Bay has an impressive early-season win over Virginia and could be a dangerous 12-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Youngstown State's Kendrick Perry is the leading scorer in the conference while Wright State boasts the best defense in the league. If Green Bay falls in the Horizon Championship Game, there is an outside chance they could earn an At-Large bid to the NCAA Tournament, but that seems unlikely.

Ivy

No Tournament

The Ivy League does not have a conference tournament and awards its automatic bid to the Regular Season conference champion. Currently, Harvard has a 2-game advantage on the field. The only way the Crimson will not get the automatic bid is if they lose both of their games this weekend (to Yale and Brown) and Yale wins their remaining games (against Harvard and Dartmouth). If that happens, Yale will get the automatic bid, thanks to a head-to-head sweep over Harvard. Friday nights aren't usually big nights for college basketball, but Harvard can become the first team to clinch a spot in the field with a win over Yale on Friday night.

MAAC

March 6-10

Springfield, MA

Top Seeds: Iona, Manhattan

Sleeper: Canisius

Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify. Seeds 6-11 play play-in games.

Recent History: The top seed has not won the MAAC Tournament since 2010

Preview: The MAAC has been one of the most exciting small conferences to follow all season. If you like offense, you're going to love this tournament. The top 4 teams in the league all average over 77 points per game and are all in the top 40 in the nation in scoring. Iona, Manhattan, Quinnipiac and Canisius have traded blows at the top of the conference this season and it's a wide open race for who will win the league's automatic bid. Quinnipiac has never been to the NCAA Tournament before while Canisius has not reached the Dance since 1996. Canisius is led by Billy Baron, the third leading scorer in the nation, averaging 24.4 points per game. Manhattan has the league's best defense, led by forward Rhamel Brown who is second in the nation with 3.8 blocks per game. Quinnipiac also features a tough duo inside where forwards Ike Azotam and Ousmane Drame both average a double-double per game with over 14 points and 10 rebounds per game). Iona's strength is from the outside where they are in the top 10 in the nation at nearly 40% from 3-point range.

Missouri Valley

March 6-9

St Louis, MO

Top Seeds: Wichita St, Indiana St

Sleeper: Missouri St

Tournament Format: All 10 teams qualify, 2 play-in games then a normal bracket

Recent History: Arch Madness has been won by one of the top 3 seeds in each of the last 6 years and the #1 seed has won the automatic bid in 4 of the last 6.

Preview: This one is all about Wichita State. Can the Shockers continue their amazing run of 31 straight victories through the MVC Tournament and become the first team since UNLV in the early 90s to enter the Big Dance undefeated? The Shockers breezed through the MVC this year, beating everyone by double-digits at home and winning all but 3 of their conference road games by double figures. Their closest call was a 3-point overtime win over Missouri State in January, but they rebounded to throttle the Bears by 23 at home in the season finale. Wichita State will get an At-Large bid if they fail to win the MVC Tournament, but a win in Arch Madness will essentially ensure them a #1 seed in the Big Dance. Indiana State was team that many thought could ride Wichita State's coattails to an At Large bid (much like St Mary's did with Gonzaga last year) but the Sycamores simply dropped too many games in conference play.

Northeast

March 5-11

Higher Seed Hosts Game

Top Seeds: Robert Morris, Wagner

Sleeper: Mt St Mary's

Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify, normal bracket

Recent History: Robert Morris and Long Island have won the last 5 titles. The top seed has won 3 of the last 5 tournaments.

Preview: The biggest news in the NEC this year is that 3-time defending champion Long Island finished 9th in the conference and did not qualify for the Conference Tournament. This should be a sigh of relief for top seed Robert Morris who was topped by the Blackbirds in the Championship Game in 2011 and 2012. The Colonials won the conference regular season by 2 games despite having 4 players suspended indefinitely in January. Second place Wagner is looking for their first NCAA Tournament bid in 11 years and looks like the best threat to disrupt the monopoly that Robert Morris, Long Island and Mt St Mary's have had over the conference. The Seahawks are the hottest team in the conference, winning their last 8 games to close out the season, including an 11-point victory in the season finale over Robert Morris.

Ohio Valley

March 5-8

Nashville, TN

Top Seeds: Belmont, Murray St

Sleeper: SE Missouri St

Tournament Format: Top 8 teams qualify. Top 2 seeds get double byes to the semi-finals, seeds 3 & 4 get byes to the quarter-finals

Recent History: Since moving to the double-bye format, a team getting the double bye has won each tournament. Since 2002, only twice has someone other than Belmont, Murray St, Morehead St and Eastern Kentucky (the top 4 seeds this year) won the conference tournament.

Preview: Reigning Champion Belmont has dominated the league since moving over from the Atlantic Sun last year. They dominated the conference to the tune of a 14-2 record this season and are in prime position to capture their second straight conference title. Perennial power Murray State has been neck-in-neck with the Bruins all season while traditional powers Morehead State and Eastern Kentucky are also strong. All 4 teams finished with 10+ wins in conference play and average more than 77 points per game, putting them all in the top 40 in the nation in scoring. On top of the big four, Southeast Missouri State is actually 6th in the nation in scoring, averaging 83.3 points per game, but has one of the worst defenses in the nation and is seeded 6th in the tournament. Belmont has reached the NCAA Tournament 6 times since 2006 and has always been a popular upset pick, but have yet to win a game in the Big Dance. The Bruins once again have a loaded offense, averaging 80.2 points per game (19th in nation) and shooting 39.7% from beyond the arc (13th in nation).

Patriot

March 3, 5, 8, 12

Higher Seed Hosts Game

Top Seeds: Boston, American

Sleeper: Bucknell

Tournament Format: All 10 teams qualify, 2 play-in games

Recent History: The top seed has won the Patriot League Tournament in 5 of the last 6 years. Bucknell has reached the conference championship game in 6 of the last 9 years.

Preview: American dominated the month of January, running out to a 10-0 start in conference play. However, the Eagles cooled off and went just 3-5 over the last 4 weeks of the season and was surpassed by Boston U for the regular season crown. The Terriers went on an impressive 7-1 run over the last 4 weeks with their only loss coming to Bucknell. The Bison are the hottest team in the conference, having won their last 6 games, including road wins over Boston and American.

Southern

March 7-10

Asheville, NC

Top Seeds: Davidson, Chattanooga

Sleeper: Elon

Tournament Format: All 11 teams qualify, 3 play-in games then normal bracket

Recent History: The last 9 tournaments have been won by Davidson, Wofford or Chattanooga. The top seed has won the tournament in 4 of the last 6 years.

Preview: This year seems like more of the same for the Southern Conference with Davidson, Chattanooga and Wofford occupying the top 3 seeds. After a rough start to a brutal non-conference schedule, Davidson rebounded to go 15-1 in conference play, winning their last 12 games. Their only loss was in overtime to Elon. Davidson averages 78 points per game, good for 35th in the nation. Elon is a good team that was expected to challenge for the league crown and will need to get through Davidson to secure their first NCAA Tournament bid in school history.

West Coast

March 6, 8, 10-11

Las Vegas, NV

Top Seeds: Gonzaga, BYU

Sleeper: Portland

Tournament Format: All 10 teams qualify, 2 play-in games.

Recent History: Since 1999, Gonzaga and St Mary's have combined for 13 of the 15 tournament titles. The WCC has received 6 At-Large bids to the NCAA Tournament in the last 6 years.

Preview: Another year, another regular season with Gonzaga at the top of the league standings. The biggest story here is BYU's fight with the bubble. The Cougars are squarely in the middle of the bubble conversation and likely need a run to the conference championship to assure their spot.  BYU is the 3rd highest scoring team in the nation at 85 points per game. BYU has 4 losses to teams with 100+ RPIs and can't afford to be upset in the WCC Tournament and will likely have to get past an upset-minded Portland squad and a talented San Francisco team just to get to Gonzaga in the finals. The Zags have not been foolproof this year either, and lost back-to-back games in mid-February that brought their tournament status into question should they not win the WCC Tournament. Despite finishing 7th, Portland has wins over Gonzaga and BYU and could play spoiler to someone's At-Large hopes. St Mary's has not been as good this year but can never be counted out while San Francisco has 4 players averaging in double figures.

Bracketology Primer

With under two weeks to go in the college basketball regular season, I took a look at putting a sample bracket together. Here's a quick look at how everyone shakes out and some of the logic I used.

The Top Seeds

There are currently only 5 teams in the nation with less than 3 losses. One of them is Stephen F Austin whose strength of schedule is in the 200s and doesn't have the resume for a tournament berth if they don't win their conference tournament. The other four teams are the #1 seeds in my bracket. The #1 overall seed, despite only having 4 wins against the Top 50, is the Florida Gators.

They haven't lost since December 2nd and haven't lost a game outside the Top 30. They do have 13 wins against the Top 100, which says more about the strength of the SEC than the quality of Florida.

The rest of the #1 seeds shouldn't be much of a surprise. Arizona is running away with the Pac-12 and has 10 Top 50 wins. Syracuse comes in as the #3 overall seed because despide having the most Top 100 wins of this group (15), they are also the only team with a loss outside the Top 50 (to #184 Boston College). Wichita State rounds out the group. The closest comparrison I could find was the St Joe's team that had an undefeated regular season and last year's Gonzaga team, both of which got the #4 overall seed in the tournament. Even though Wichita is undefeated, which lands them on the top line, I don't think they'll be seeded higher than 4th overall given their profile, which only features 2 Top 50 wins.

The Seeds

2 Seeds

Kansas, despite 6 losses, has the best profile in the country. 12 Top 50 wins and 17 Top 100 wins. All 6 of their losses are to Top 50 teams.
Villanova has just 3 losses on the season, none of them coming outside the Top 10. A lot has been made about the Wildcats being ranked higher than Creighton, who has slaughtered them twice, but they have a better profile. If the Jays beat Villanova in the Big East Championship, Creighton and Nova will swap spots.
Iowa State's 8 Top 50 wins (3rd most in the country) can't be ignored and lands them on the 2-seed line.
Cincinnati edges out the rest of the field for the last #2 seed as the AAC leader and because they have no losses outside the Top 50 - something Creighton and Duke can't say.

3 Seeds
Creighton has a great profile with double-digit wins over the Top 100, but their 2 losses outside the Top 50 are what is currently keeping them off the 2 line.
Wisconsin is currently my highest rated team from the Big 10, but it seems hard to believe that the Big 10 Conference Champion wouldn't get a top 2 seed. Wisky has the profile (8 Top 50 wins, 15 Top 100 wins) to move up, but their 2 losses outside the Top 50 are holding them back.
Duke has played much better over the last month, but I'm not buying the hype of them as a #2 seed just yet. They are just 5-4 against the Top 50 which pales in comparrison to a team like Wisconsin who is 8-3 and Creighton who is 6-2.
Michigan is currently atop the Big 10 standings and has 7 Top 50 wins, including a sweep of Michigan St.

4 Seeds
Michigan St has less Top 50 Wins, less Top 100 wins and was swept by Michigan, which is enough to drop them below the Wolverines.
Texas is 7-7 against the Top 50, which is great in terms of wins and great that they haven't lost to a bad team.
Virginia currently leads the ACC but has played a very easy conference slate. They have just 3 top 50 wins and two losses to teams ranked in the 50s.
Louisville hasn't lost outside the Top 40 and is undefeated in the month of February, but is just 4-4 against the Top 50.

5 seeds
St Louis is still leading the A-10 after their loss to Duquesne but only 3 of their 12 conference wins have been by double-digits.
San Diego State has impressive wins over Kansas and Creighton but is carrying a loss to Wyoming (RPI 107).
UCLA doesn't have a win over a Top 25 opponent but has an impressive 7-5 mark against the Top 50.
UConn is the first team to appear on this list with a losing record against the Top 50, but only has 1 loss outside the Top 40 and that was back in December.

6 seeds
Iowa dropped two games this week in which they scored 89 and 86 points. The Hawkeyes only have 1 loss outside the Top 50, but are just 4-8 against the Top 50.
UMass has built one of the best profiles in the country with a 5-1 record against the Top 50 and 13 Top 100 wins. The drawbacks are 4 losses outside the Top 50 - including one to George Mason (RPI 145).
North Carolina is probably the hottest team in the country and haven't lost in over a month. Like UMass, they have 5 Top 50 wins and double-digit Top 100 wins, but are being held back by 4 losses outside the Top 50 (including 2 outside the Top 100).
Oklahoma is 7-5 against the Top 50 but have two losses to teams ranked in the 70s and one to Texas Tech (RPI 121).

7 seeds
Ohio State has just a .500 record against the Top 50 and two losses (both to Penn State!) outside the Top 100.
Kansas State has 6 Top 50 wins, including wins over Kansas (RPI 1), Texas (RPI 23) and Oklahoma (RPI 25). However, they have 4 losses outside the Top 50, including two in November to teams ranked lower than 175.
Kentucky is a long way from the team that some thought would go 40-0. Their 13 Top 100 wins are impressive, but they have 3 losses outside the Top 50, including a sweep by Arkansas.
Memphis is just 3-6 against the Top 50 and just dropped a game to a Houston team ranked in the 150s. The Houston loss is their only loss outside the Top 50, though.

8 seeds
George Washington is the 3rd team from the A-10 in the bracket and has an impressive win over Creighton on a neutral court. They do have 3 losses outside the Top 50, making their profile very similar to Kentucky's.
New Mexico solidified their spot in the field last week with a win over San Diego State but are just 5-4 against the Top 100 and have 3 losses outside the Top 50.
VCU has a similar profile to George Washington in that they have 2 Top 50 wins (an impressive win over Virginia and a head-to-head win over the Colonials) but they also have 3 losses outside the Top 50. The A-10 Tournament is going to be nuts.
Arizona State is carrying a .500 mark against the Top 50, including an impressive victory over Arizona, but have been mediocre against the Top 100 with just a 7-7 record.

9 seeds
Southern Methodist is gunning for their first tournament appearance in 21 years and have an impressive 4-3 record against the Top 50, but are 4-4 against the Top 100 and have 2 losses to teams with triple-digit RPIs.
Stanford is just 5-7 against the Top 50 and 6-8 against the Top 100. The 5 Top 50 wins are more than anyone on the bubble has and should be enough to get them in, but there is nothing that jumps off the page about them either.
Baylor is still suffering from dropping a lot of games to open the Big XII slate, but their 5-8 mark against the Top 50 gives them a similar profile to Stanford and only 2 of their 10 losses have come outside the Top 50 (and only 1 outside the Top 100).
Pitt has one of the strangest profiles in the nation. They have just one Top 50 win (over #40 Stanford in November) but have lost only once to a team outside of the Top 20 (#56 Florida St). The Panthers are hanging on to their tournament position and won't get another chance for a quality win until the ACC Tournament and can't afford to add bad losses to this questionable slate, especially given their horrendouse non-conference schedule.

10 seeds
St Joseph's has a very similar resume to VCU (2 Top 50 wins, 7-6 against the Top 100, 3 losses outside the Top 50) but are seeded lower because of a poor non-conference slate. The Hawks can secure the #2 seed in the A-10 tournament if they win their final 3 games, which includes a trip to George Washington next Wednesday.
Gonzaga has been a perennial fixture in the tournament, but two recent losses have put their resume in question. Like Pitt they have just 1 Top 50 win, but are 7-4 against the Top 100. Unlike the Panthers, the Zags have 2 losses to teams with 100+ RPIs, which is cause for some to say they might be on the bubble if they don't win the WCC Tournament.
Colorado has lost just 1 game outside the Top 50, but have not been nearly as good since leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddle was lost to injury. Luckily, the Buffs have not dropped any games to bad teams during that time, but are just 1-5 against the Top 50 since losing Dinwiddle (after scoring 3 Top 50 victories with him in the lineup).
Oregon scored their best win of the season on the road in Pauley Pavillion this week and boosted their tournament profile. Their win over UCLA now gives them 2 Top 50 wins and a winning record (8-7) against the Top 100. Only 2 of the Ducks losses have come outside the Top 50 and only 1 outside the Top 100. With an RPI in the 30s, history is on their side as no Major Conference team in the last 6 years with a Top 40 RPI has missed the tournament.

The Bubble

With 21 Conference Champions projected to come from "One-Bid" leagues, this leaves 7 spots in the field to be occupied by Bubble teams. I'll run through the One-Bid leagues shortly, but here is a quick look at the 14 teams vying for the last 7 spots in the field.

Arkansas put themselves back in the conversation with a win at Rupp Arena, completing the sweep of Kentucky. The Razorbacks have 4 Top 50 wins and just 1 loss outside the Top 100 (though they have 3 losses to teams ranked between 50 and 100).

BYU is squarely on the bubble and can't afford any bad losses at this point. They have 3 Top 50 wins (including a neutral court win over Texas and a road win over Stanford) and are 7-6 against the Top 100. However, they have 4 losses to teams outside the Top 100, the most of the bubble group. The Cougars do have a Top-5 non-conference strength of schedule, which the Committee will swoon over.

California has a typical bubble resume - 3 Top 50 wins, 6 Top 100 wins, 3 losses outside the Top 50. Two of those losses are outside the Top 100, which is a cause for concern.

Dayton, like most other teams on the bubble, has 3 Top 50 wins and 7 Top 100 wins. They are 7-6 against the Top 100 but have 3 losses to teams with RPIs over 100.

Florida State is hanging around the conversation thanks to their 3 Top 50 wins but at 6-10 against the Top 100. They have lost 4 times outside the Top 50 but only 1 of those losses were outside the Top 100.

Minnesota has had a brutal February, but saved their bubble hopes with a win over Iowa, giving them 3 Top 50 wins. However, their resume is littered with bad losses, including 5 to teams outside the Top 50 (2 of those coming to teams with 100+ RPIs).

Missouri, a few weeks ago, looked to have the best chance to be the 3rd SEC team in the field, but the Tigers have just 1 win against the Top 50 and are 7-6 against teams ranked between 50th and 100. They have just 1 loss outside the Top 100, but those 6 losses to teams ranked between 50 and 100 are frightening.

Nebraska had worked their way into the bubble conversation, but like Minnesota have just 3 Top 50 wins and are 6-8 against the Top 100. The Huskers have lost 4 times outside the Top 50 with 3 of those coming to teams ranked in the 100s.

Oklahoma State dropped 3 games while Marcus Smart was suspended and the question is how the Committee will handle that. Their 10 losses are more than any team other than Baylor I have discussed so far, but only 1 of those losses has been outside the Top 50. The Pokes are just 3-9 against the Top 50 and will have to do some work in the Big XII tournament to ensure their spot in the field.

Richmond is currently in a fight with history. In the last 6 years, no Mid-Major with an RPI over 50 has made the Tournament. The Spiders currenty sit at 54th but will get chances to improve their profile with games against VCU and Dayton before the A-10 Tournament. The Spiders are being held back by their 4 losses outside the Top 50, though only 1 was outside the Top 100, but it was this week to George Mason. You don't want to take your worst loss of the season in late February.

Southern Miss is currently tied atop Conference USA, and they have a profile that might be good enough to squeeze them in if they don't win the C-USA tournament. The Eagles are 1-1 against the Top 50, 4-3 against the Top 100 and have just 2 losses t teams with 100+ RPIs. They played a bad non-conference slate, which could hurt their chances.

Tennessee has almost an identical profile to Richmond - 2 Top 50 wins, 7 Top 100 wins and a 7-9 record against the Top 100. The Vols also have 2 losses outside the Top 100. Tennessee did have a good non-conference schedule, so that will help their resume.

Toledo is currently in 2nd place in the MAC and has a Top-40 RPI, which seems to be a prerequisite for a mid-major to be considered for an At-Large bid. However, the Rockets have played just one game against a team ranked in the Top 75 (a loss to Kansas). Toledo is 3-3 against teams ranked between 75 and 100 and has just 1 loss outside the Top 100, but I'm not sure if that will be enough to get them in.

With 14 teams in consideration, I started by putting 3 in the tournament and taking 3 off the bottom. I put Oklahoma State in because they only have 1 bad loss, the fewest of the group. Similarly, Arkansas has the most Top 50 wins of the bubble teams so I put them in. California also earned a spot based on having the best win (over #2 Arizona) of any of the bubble teams with 3 Top 50 wins.

On the bottom, Dayton and Nebraska's 3 losses outside the Top 100 were too much for me to overcome, so I took them out of consideration. Similarly, Tennessee's 5 bad losses were enough to knock them out in my book.

It was literally a toss-up between the last 8 teams for which should be my last 4 in and first 4 out. Minnesota and BYU got in based on their non-conference strength of schedule and Southern Miss got in because of their similarity in profile to Middle Tennessee, who earned an At-Large spot last year. Missouri and Xavier simply did not have enough good wins to offset their bad losses. Toledo's lack of a win over a Top-75 opponent was enough to keep them out in my eyes. This left a literal coin flip between Richmond and Florida State. I gave the slightest of edges to the Seminoles based on better performance away from home - Florida State has 6 road/neutral court wins that are better than Richmond's best win away from home.

Work To Do

With a little over a week left in the regular season plus conference tournaments. The bottom of the field is still wide open. The following teams could work their way into the Bubble Conversation by Selection Sunday if they stack wins over the next few weeks.

- Boise State

- Clemson

- Georgetown

- LSU

- NC State

- Ole Miss

- Providence

- St John's

- West Virginia

One-Bid Leagues

For purposes of putting this bracket together, I'm going to assume that the current conference leaders are going to get the automatic bid from their conference.

America East - Vermont will be the top seed in the conference tournament and the clear favorite after defeating Stony Brook this week. Current Leader: Vermont
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast captured everyone's fandom last year in the NCAA Tournament and they are locked at the top of the A-Sun with Mercer, who they defeated in the conference championship last year. Mercer has been knocking at the door of the Big Dance for a while but hasn't made the trip to the Tournament since 1985. Current Leader: Mercer
Big Sky - The Big Sky always produces an exciting end to the regular season as only 7 of the 11 teams qualify for the Conference Tournament. Currently 4 teams are tied at 5th-9th in the standings and the 8 teams from 3rd to 10th are within 2 games of each other, jockeying for the last spots in the tournament. Weber State and Montana have played in 3 of the last 4 championship games. Current Leader: Weber State
Big South - Incredibly, there are 7 teams in the Big South that are within 2 games of first place High Point (11-4 in conference). This tournament is going to be insane. The Big South is one of the lowest ranked conferences in the nation, which pretty much guarantees a spot in the Play-In game for the tournament winner. Current Leader: High Point
Big West - UC Irvine just beat UC Santa Barbara this week to take over the top spot in the conference. The teams split their season series and we may get a rubber match in the tournament between the Anteaters and the Gauchos. Those are two of the best nicknames in the country. Current Leader: UC Irvine
Colonial - Delaware leads by a game over Townson, and the two have paced the field this season. Beware the Fightin' Blue Hens. Current Leader: Delaware
Conference USA - Four teams are currently tied atop the standings (Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee and Tulsa) with UTEP a game behind. Only Southern Miss has a profile capable of getting an At-Large bid and Louisiana Tech currently holds the tiebreaker atop the standings, so C-USA falls as a "one-bid" league. Current Leader: Louisiana Tech
Horizon - Green Bay ran away from the field this season and the Phoenix might have an outside shot at an At-Large bid if they don't win the Horizon tournament. Current Leader: Green Bay
Ivy - The only conference without a tournament. Harvard holds a one-game lead over Yale but the Bulldogs already have a win over Harvard and could take the bid if they win out. Current Leader: Harvard
MAAC - The best small conference in the country, the MAAC has been a battle this season between the 4 teams atop the standings (Iona, Quinnipiac, Manhattan, Canisius). All of these teams can score a ton of points and this should be a great tournament. Current Leader: Iona
MAC - Western Michigan is the current leader but Toledo and Buffalo are only a game behind. If Toledo doesn't win the tournament, they have a chance to get an At-Large bid. Current Leader: Western Michigan
MEAC - North Carolina Central has run away with the MEAC this year and is 22-5 overall with just 1 conference loss. Unfortunately, the MEAC is the second-lowest ranked conference in the nation, so anything above a 15-seed seems unlikely for NCCU and an At-Large bid is pretty much out of the question if they don't win the MEAC tournament. Current Leader: NC Central
NEC - Robert Morris has a 3-game lead in the NEC standings which is incredible considering 4 players were suspended for the season in January. Current Leader: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Belmont and Murray St are locked in a battle atop the OVC with Eastern Kentucky and Morehead State lurking 3 games back. The last 5 OVC Tournaments have been won by one of those 4 schools so it looks like history will repeat itself. Current Leader: Belmont
Patriot - Boston U holds a slim lead over American who started conference play with 10 straight wins then dropped 4 of 5. Current Leader: Boston U
SoCon - After getting destroyed in a brutal non-conference schedule, 2-time defending champ Davidson has a 3-game lead atop the SoCon standings. The top 4 get byes in the conference tournament, and there are currently 3 teams (Wofford, Western Carolina, Chattanooga) tied for 3rd through 5th. Current Leader: Davidson
Southland - Stephen F Austin is on a 23-game winning streak and is 15-0 in the  Southland, holding a 4-game lead on the rest of the field. The Lumberjacks are 26-2 overall, one of just 5 teams in the nation with less than 3 losses, but don't have the profile to garner At-Large consideration. Current Leader: Stephen F Austin
SWAC - Southern currently leads the conference by 3 games but is fighting an NCAA ruling that they are academically inelligible for post-season play. Since the Jaguars are currently inelligible, I'm putting second-place Alabama State in the field. Current Leader: Alabama State
Summit - North Dakota State has an RPI in the 40s and could get At-Large consideration if they don't win the Summit League Tournament. The IPFW Mastadons (what a nickname!) are currently in second place and looking for their first ever trip to the Big Dance. Current Leader: North Dakota State
Sun Belt - Georgia State has a 3-game lead, but history is not on their side. The #1 seed in the Sun Belt Tournament has only won the tournament once in the last 6 years. Second place Western Kentucky has emerged from the Sun Belt in 4 of the last 6 years, so you have to like their chances. Current Leader: Georgia State
WAC - Utah Valley just took control of the conference by beating New Mexico State in a game that turned ugly when NMSU players started throwing punches at Utah Valley fans that stormed the court. Yikes. New Mexico State has won 3 of the last 4 WAC tournaments and never from the #1 seed. Current Leader: Utah Valley

The Bracket

Now that we have determined the 68 teams in the field comes the fun part, putting them in a bracket! The first round hosting sites are Buffalo, Milwaukee, Orlando and Spokane on Thursday-Saturday and Raleigh, San Antonio, San Diego and St Louis on Friday-Sunday. The South and West Regionals are on Thursday-Saturday and in Memphis and Anaheim. The East and Midwest Regionals are in New York and Indianapolis and are Friday-Sunday sites. Since BYU is in the field, they can not play a Sunday game, which means they must be placed in the South or West regions and must be in a first round site in Buffalo, Milwaukee, Orlando or Spokane. Additionally, Memphis can not be in the South and San Diego State can not play in San Diego in the first round because they are the host schools.

South Region

Orlando
1. Florida vs 16. High Point/Alabama St
8. Arizona St vs 9. Baylor
San Diego
4. Virginia vs 13. Belmont
5. St Louis vs 12. Harvard
Milwaukee
3. Creighton vs 14. Western Michigan
6. Oklahoma vs 11. BYU/Florida St
Buffalo
2. Cincinnati vs 15. Boston U
7. Ohio St vs 10. Oregon

West Region

San Diego
1. Arizona vs 16. Utah Valley/Weber St
8. VCU vs 9. Pitt
Spokane
4. Louisville vs 13. Stephen F Austin
5. San Diego St vs 12. Green Bay
Raleigh
3. Wisconsin vs 14. Mercer
6. North Carolina vs 11. Oklahoma St
Milwaukee
2. Iowa St vs 15. Vermont
7. Kentucky vs 10. Colorado

East Region

Buffalo
1. Syracuse vs 16. Davidson
8. New Mexico vs 9. Southern Methodist
San Antonio
4. Texas vs 13. Iona
5. UCLA vs 12. Minnesota/Southern Miss
San Antonio
3. Michigan vs 14. Georgia St
6. UMass vs 11. Arkansas
Raleigh
2. Villanova vs 15. UC-Irvine
7. Kansas St vs 10. Gonzaga

Midwest Region

St Louis
1. Wichita St vs 16. Robert Morris
8. George Washington vs 9. Stanford
Spokane
4. Michigan St vs 13. Louisiana Tech
5. UConn vs 12. North Dakota St
Orlando
3. Duke vs 14. Delaware
6. Iowa vs 11. California
St Louis
2. Kansas vs 15. NC Central
7. Memphis vs 10. St Joseph's

First Four - Tuesday in Dayton
BYU vs Florida St
High Point vs Alabama St
First Four - Wednesday in Dayton
Minnesota vs Southern Miss
Utah Valley vs Weber St

Bids by conference: Big XII - 7, Pac-12 - 7, ACC - 6, Big 10 - 6, AAC - 5, A-10 - 5, SEC - 3, Big East - 2, MWC - 2, WCC - 2, C-USA - 2
Highest RPI in the field: Arkansas (RPI 57)
Lowest RPI left out: Toledo (RPI 38)

A note on bracketing - the only change I made of moving teams between seed lines was moving BYU and Florida State into the first play-in game on the 11-seed line and putting Minnesota-Southern Miss on the 12-seed line. In my rankings, Minnesota and Southern Miss were higher, but this was done so that BYU's scheduling requirements could be met. Hopefully you enjoyed this little exercise in putting together a bracket. I'll be updating my bracket prediction page a few times a week as we move closer to Selection Sunday.