Olympic Hockey Scenarios

For the second straight Winter Games, the United States has toppled the host nation in round robin play. With just one game left on the slate for Groups A and B, the bracketed portion of the tournament is starting to take shape. Before getting into the possible scenarios, here is how the seeding for the knockout portion of the tournament is decided.

• Teams are seeded based on order of finish in their groups. The 3 first place teams get the top 3 seeds, then the 2nd place teams, 3rd place teams and so forth. 
• Teams receive 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an OT/Shootout win and 1 for an OT/Shootout loss.
• Amongst each set of teams that finished in the same place, they are seeded based on points.
• Any ties on points are broken by Goal Differential, Goals Scored, then IIHF World Ranking.

Here's a look at the current standings as we head into the last day of Round Robin play.

Group A

Team	Record	Pts	GD	GF
USA	1-1-0-0	5	+7	10
Russia	1-0-1-0	4	+2	7
Slovenia	1-0-0-1	3	-1	5
Slovakia	0-0-0-2	0	-8	2

Note: Record is displayed as W-OTW-OTL-L

Remaining Games:

Slovakia vs Russia (7am EST)

USA vs Slovenia (7am EST)

Group B

Team	Record	Pts	GD	GF
Finland	2-0-0-0	6	+9	14
Canada	2-0-0-0	6	+8	9
Norway	0-0-0-2	0	-7	2
Austria	0-0-0-2	0	-10	4

Remaining Games:

Norway vs Austria (3am EST)

Canada vs Finland (noon EST)

Group C

Team	Record	Pts	GD	GF
Sweden	3-0-0-0	9	+5	10
Switzerland	2-0-0-1	6	+1	2
Czech Rep	1-0-0-2	3	-1	6
Latvia	0-0-0-3	0	-5	5

No Remaining Games

Scenarios

The four positions in Group C have been decided. Group B has the easier scenarios. The Canada-Finland game will decide 1st and 2nd place while the Norway-Austria game will decide 3rd and 4th place. The USA currently leads Group A, but the scenarios in Group A are more wide open. For the United States, having the game against Russia was tremendously important for their long-term outlook in the tournament. In all likelihood (except for some very unlikely scenario where the US would lose to Slovenia and Russia would lose to Slovakia), the US and Russia will find themselves on opposite halves of the bracket. The winner of Group A will be either the #2 or #3 seed while the second place team will probably be the #4 or #5 seed. This means that the US would not have to face Russia again until the final round. The best case scenario for the US would be for America, Canada and Russia to all win in regulation so that Canada was the #1 overall seed, Sweden #2, the US #3, Russia #4, and Finland #5. This would mean that the US wouldn't have to face Canada, Russia or Finland until the medal round.

Group A Scenarios

The US will win Group A with...

• A win over Slovenia (either in regulation or OT)
• An overtime loss to Slovenia if Russia-Slovakia also goes to OT

Russia will win Group A with...

• A win over Slovakia in regulation and a US loss (either in regulation or OT)
• A win over Slovakia in OT and a US loss in regulation

Slovenia will win Group A with...

• A win in regulation over the US and a Russia loss (either in regulation or OT)

The Four Byes

The three group winners plus the top 2nd place team receive byes through the first round of the tournament. Sweden has already clinched one of the byes and the winner of Canada-Finland will receive another. The US can clinch first place in Group A by beating Slovenia, regardless of if it is in regulation or in overtime. If Russia beats Slovakia in regulation and the Canada-Finland game ends in regulation, Russia will be the #4 seed in the tournament as the top-ranked 2nd place team with 7 points to 6 for Switzerland and the Canada-Finland loser. Things could get complicated if games go to overtime, because the Canada-Finland loser could get an extra point which would put them also at 7 points with Russia. Russia winning in overtime would mean they would only finish with 6 points, which would put them in a 3-way tie with Switzerland and the Canada-Finland loser (or put Russia in 5th place if Canada-Finland also goes to OT). 

Since the Norway-Austria game will really only decide the #9 and #11 or #12 seeds, it has no bearing on the Group winners and the 4 teams that get byes.

If Canada-Finland ends in regulation...

Canada-Finland ending in regulation makes Group B relatively simple. The winner will have 9 points and the loser will have 6. 

• The winner of Canada-Finland will be the #1 overall seed in the tournament and Sweden will be #2 based on Goal Differential (Finland is currently +9, Canada is +8 and Sweden is +5). 
• The winner of Group A will be the #3 overall seed. Sweden and the Canada-Finland winner will have 9 points while the most the Group A winner could have would be 8.
• The US will win Group A and get the #3 seed if they beat Slovenia (either in regulation or in OT). Any US win over Slovenia automatically makes Russia the 2nd place team in Group A.
• Russia will win Group A if they beat Slovakia in regulation and the US loses to Slovenia (either in regulation or OT) OR if they beat Slovakia in overtime and the US loses to Slovenia in regulation. 
• Slovenia can win Group A if they beat the US in regulation and Russia loses, either in regulation or OT).
• Unless the margin of victory in the Canada-Finland game is 8 or more goals, Switzerland can not be the #4 seed. If the margin of victory in the Canada-Finland game is less than 8, the #4 seed will be either the loser of Canada-Finland or the 2nd place team from Group A. 
• If the US beats Slovenia and Russia wins in regulation, Russia will be the #4 seed.
• If the US beats Slovenia and Russia wins in OT, the Canada-Finland loser will be the #4 seed.
• If Slovenia wins in regulation and Russia wins, Russia will win Group A and Slovenia will be in 2nd. The Canada-Finland loser will be the #4 seed.
• If Slovenia wins in regulation and Russia loses, Slovenia will win Group A and the Canada-Finland loser will be the #4 seed.
• If Slovenia wins in OT and Russia wins in regulation, Russia will win Group A and Team USA will finish 2nd. The US will be the #4 seed if Canada wins by 4+ or if Finland wins by 3+. Any lesser goal differential would result in the Canada-Finland loser being the #4 seed.
• If Slovenia wins in OT and Russia-Slovakia goes to overtime, the US will win Group A and the Canada-Finland loser will be the #4 seed. 
• If Slovenia wins in OT and Russia loses regulation, the US will win Group A and the Canada-Finland loser will be the #4 seed.

If Canada-Finland ends in overtime....

The scenarios actually simplify themselves a bit if the Canada-Finland game goes to OT. In this case, the winner of Canada-Finland would only have 8 points while the loser would have 7. 

• Sweden will be the #1 overall seed in the tournament as the only team with 9 points. The Canada-Finland winner and the Group A winner will be the #2 and #3 seeds.
• The Canada-Finland loser will be the #4 seed unless:
• Canada loses in OT, the US wins, and Russia wins by 5+
• Finland loses in OT, the US wins, and Russia wins by 7+
• The Canada-Finland winner will be the #2 seed unless:
• Canada wins in OT and the US wins by 3+
• Finland wins in OT and the US wins by 4+

When we will know things

Given that Group C has already concluded play, we know that Sweden will be in the top 3 seeds, Switzerland somewhere between 4th and 6th, the Czechs between 7th and 9th, and Latvia in between 10th and 12th. Additionally, due to their head-to-head loss, Slovakia can not pass Slovenia for 3rd in Group A so the Slovaks will be seeded between 10th and 12th. The first game tomorrow is at 3am EST between Norway and Austria, who are both winless in the tournament. The loser will join Slovakia and Latvia in the 10th-12th seeds. The winner will join the Czechs in the 7-9 seeds.

Group A concludes play tomorrow morning with the two games starting at 7am EST. Once Group A gets sorted out, everything else should fall into place for the Group B First Place Game at noon. The best case scenario for the United States lies in winning in regulation and getting the #3 seed and hoping that the Canada-Finland game is decided in regulation so that they don't have to face either team until the medal round (or for Finland to win so that Canada and Russia find themselves on the same half of the bracket).

I should not that after the opening round the advancing teams are re-seeded based on which teams advance, but it is bracketologically impossible for the #3 seed to face the #5 seed in the second round, so should the US be the #3 seed, they would not face the #4 seed (who would also get a bye) or the #5 seed (presumably Russia and the Canada-Finland loser) until the medal round.

For reference, if the bracketed portion of the tournament began right now, the seeds would be: 1. Sweden, 2. Finland, 3. USA, 4. Canada, 5. Switzerland, 6. Russia, 7. Czech Rep, 8. Slovenia, 9. Norway, 10. Latvia, 11. Slovakia, 12. Austria. The top 4 (Sweden, Finland, USA, Canada) would get byes to the second round. The first round matchups would be 5. Switzerland vs 12. Austria, 6. Russia vs 11. Slovakia, 7. Czech Rep vs 10. Latvia, 8. Slovenia vs 9. Norway. With re-seeding, the lowest advancing seed from those 4 games would play the #1 seed (Sweden), the second lowest advancing seed the #2 seed (Finland), and so forth.